Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the US is deploying new shakedown tactics on its exporters to give some favoured tech companies tariff and national security export relief - if they pay.

However first, China's vehicle sales were up almost 15% in July from a year ago, following a nearly +14% rise in June. That means they sold 2.6 mln units in July. The sales pace is running far higher in 2025 than the record pace in 2024, but the really large sales months don't come until late in the second half of the year. Sales of new energy vehicles surged 27% year-on-year to more than 1.25 mln units in July, accounting for nearly half of all new car sales and marking the fifth consecutive monthly increase.

Hong Kong listed Chinese property developer, China South City Holdings, has been suspended after a Hong Kong court ordered its winding up. That ends a years-long process of attempting to survive through reorganisation and emphasises how tough the Chinese property development market is still.

In India, there are reports their central bank is in the markets supporting the falling rupee. So far they have spent US$5 bln on the operation to no obvious impact, although it may have helped slow the devaluation.

In the US, the Federal Government is finding new ways to tax. First it was tariffs (import taxes), now it is export taxes. It is extracting 15% from chip sales, starting with exports to China. These shakedown of corporate America come with waiving tariffs or national security export restrictions, giving the company advantages over its rivals. Very Soprano. It is a habit sure to spread, ushering in a period of hyper crony-capitalism - one that may be indistinguishable from capitalism-with-Chinese-characteristics. The Chinese at least are trying to wean themselves off the habit, because it led them nowhere.

Tomorrow, the US will release its CPI data. And after the firing of its agency head last month because Trump didn't like the result, this will draw special scrutiny, especially as tariff costs are increasingly being passed on. The key reaction to watch will be how TIPS bonds are prices (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities). The CPI rate is the basis for these yields and it they are going to be artificially interfered with, investors may sell down this US$2.1 tln bond market corner. If that happens, we will all notice. Markets expect the 2.7% CPI rate in June (the one Trump didn't like) to rise to 2.8%, and the core rate to hit 3% - for the first time in five months and calling an end to the disinflation cycle and the start of re-inflation.

Later today we get the RBA's latest rate decision. It almost certainly will announce a cut of -25 bps to 3.60%. And before that the wide-watched NAB business sentiment survey will be released. It isn't expected to show much change from the modestly positive readings.

And as important as today's announcements will be, don't forget tomorrow CBA will release its annual 2025 results to June. And they are widely expected to be a record exceeding AU$10 bln. It is ranked in the mid 40s on an assets basis, but it is one of the worlds most profitable.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.26%, down -2 bps from yesterday at this time. 

The price of gold will start today at US$3,354/oz, down -US$44 from yesterday.

American oil prices have firmed +50 USc to be just under US$64/bbl with the international Brent price now at US$66.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is at 59.3 USc and down -20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are also down -20 bps at 91.1 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.2, down -10 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price started today at US$119,552 and up +0.8% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/-1.7%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.