With global markets impacted by various factors, exploring diverse perspectives and ideas is essential for investors.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese speak with Carson’s Group Investment Research Team, Barry Gilbert, VP, Asset Allocation Strategist, and Grant Engelbart, VP, Investment Strategist.

They discuss various topics related to investing, including the impact of US-China relations and the importance of considering other factors in portfolio construction. They also talk about the team dynamics at Carson Partners and the importance of being open to new ideas and perspectives in investing. Additionally, they emphasize the integration of investment and wealth management in financial planning and the advantages of working at Carson Partners.

They discuss:

• The impact of China's restrictions on Apple's revenue and the broader implications for US-China relations
• The growth potential of active ETFs and their impact on the market
• The need to be open to new ideas and perspectives in order to understand and navigate the complexities of the market
• The need to consider how different investment components fit together to achieve diversification
• The essential connection between investment and wealth management 
• The impact and accessibility of Carson Partners for advisors
• Their investment philosophy and how it has evolved over their career
• The recent disconnect between the US dollar and commodity prices, and the US's energy independence
• And more!

Connect with Barry Gilbert: 

• LinkedIn: Barry Gilbert

Connect with Grant Engelbart: 

• LinkedIn: Grant Engelbart

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Ready for a special episode of Facts Vs. Feelings?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese celebrate their 50th episode of the podcast! They chat about the recent jobs report, highlighting the increase in jobs created and the slight rise in the unemployment rate. They also touch on economic indicators such as yields, wage growth, and the manufacturing sector.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• An analysis of the monthly jobs report, discussing the number of jobs created, unemployment rate, and the health of the labor market
• The slowdown in nominal GDP growth and the misconception of recession
• The growth in manufacturing jobs and the strength of consumption
• The vacancy ratio, its relation to supply and demand for labor, and the Fed's interest in lowering the ratio
• Their key takeaways for reaching 50 episodes 
• An explanation of why September is historically the worst month for the stock market
• The historical performance of the stock market in August and the expectation for September
• And more!

Resources:

• Talking Macro with Neil Dutta (Ep. 47)

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Navigating the landscape of debt and finance requires an understanding of the myths and truths that shape our perception.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese debunk seven common myths related to debt and finance. They provide insights and analysis on topics such as credit card debt, student loans, bankruptcies, and excess savings. Additionally, they address the topic of rising interest rates and its impact on the economy.

Ryan and Sonu discusses: 

• The concerns and perspective on the $1 trillion credit card debt and its relation to total assets
• The impact of student loan debt payments restarting and the potential effects on consumer spending
• The concept of excess savings during the pandemic and its potential depletion
• The recent decline in stock prices and sales for major retailers
• The increase in interest rates, specifically mortgage rates and credit card rates, and its implications for borrowers and savers
• The composition of US government debt and the ownership of that debt
• And more!

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Do you feel like we’re in a recession? Well, the facts show us otherwise.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese talk about the current state of the economy, focusing on the importance of hard data in understanding economic trends. They discuss the strong economic data and retail sales, highlighting the significant increase in retail sales over the past three months. Ryan and Sonu also touch on how investment spending benefits productivity, the contrasting views between Leading Economic Indicators and consumer opinions, and the relationship between bonds and the stock market’s performance.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• Recent strong economic data in retail sales and auto production and why the economy is stronger than we thought
• The positive impact strong industrial production has had on the economy 
• Why auto production has been soaring even more than it was pre-pandemic 
• The impact investment spending has on productivity 
• The contrasting views between the Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) and other economic indicators, such as PMIs and consumer sentiment
• The relationship between bond yields and stock market performance
• The importance of teaching children about investing and financial literacy
• And more!

Resources:

• Talking Macro with Neil Dutta (Ep. 47)
• Sonu’s Daily Note about auto/industrial production?
• Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey
• Jackson Hole Economic Symposium
• Ned Davis Research

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Macroeconomics is an all-encompassing, complex field, and it's critical to understand each of these large moving parts in order to analyze markets effectively. 

With the constantly changing fiscal policies, market indicators, and economic patterns, expert insights prove to be invaluable in guiding us through turbulent and unpredictable times.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese sit down with Neil Dutta, Managing Director and Head of Economics at Renaissance Macro Research, to chat about macroeconomics and the current state of the economy. They explore topics such as recession risks, the impact of inventories on GDP, fiscal policy, and the limitations of indicators like PMIs. 

Neil discusses: 

• An overview of his career, his role at Renaissance Macro Research, and the three core macro verticals they cover
• The current state of the economy and the differing opinions on whether a recession is imminent
• How inventory restocking can contribute to economic growth and the potential positive feedback loop it creates
• The role of fiscal policy in shaping economic outlook
• The use of PMIs and other macro indicators in analyzing the market
• The concerns about the Fed prematurely declaring victory and the potential mispricing of the back end of the market
• And more!

Connect with Neil Dutta: 

• LinkedIn: Neil Dutta
• Renaissance Macro Research

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About our guest:

As Head of Economic Research, Neil Dutta leads the macroeconomic research efforts at Renaissance Macro Research, with an emphasis on analyzing the US economy, Federal Reserve, global trends, and cross-market investment themes. 

Prior to RenMac, Neil spent seven years at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. There, he was a Senior Economist covering both the United States and Canada.

Neil appears frequently in the financial press, representing the firm on Bloomberg, CNBC, and Fox Business. He has been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Associated Press, and has been featured in the New York Times for his out-of-consensus economic views on a host of topics including employment, consumption, inflation, and housing.

A business economist with over 15 years of sell-side experience, Neil graduated Cum Laude from New York University with a bachelor’s degree, double majoring in Economics and Political Science.

One topic that has garnered attention this week is Fitch's decision to cut the US credit rating. 

This move has had implications for investments, interest rates, and overall market sentiment.

Want to learn more?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese explore the recent downgrade of US debt by Fitch, its implications, and market reaction. Ryan and Sonu also touch on gridlock in Washington, macro policy performance, and the positive outlook on the economy. Additionally, they analyze the current state of the labor market and its impact on the economy.

Ryan and Sonu discuss: 

• The Fitch downgrade of US debt and the reasons behind it
• The improvement in the debt to GDP ratio and the concerns about governance quality in Washington
• The Fed's credibility and their response to the highest inflation in 40 years
• The factors contributing to the rise in treasury yields and the impact of Fitch downgrading debt
• Various positive economic indicators
• Prime age employment population ratio: What you need to know about the low layoffs rates and strong hiring which indicate a tight labor market
• And more!

Resources:

• Excell Conference

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

After five consecutive months of gains on the S&P 500, what are the projections for the stock market?

Find out what the economy has been up to this week!

In this episode, Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese chat about the latest economic updates, including the recent GDP report, positive indicators in the economy, the impact of Federal Reserve rate hikes, inflation, and the stock market. They highlight the surprising strength of the economy, positive trends in consumer spending and decreasing inflation, and the potential for the stock market to continue rising.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The recent GDP report, highlighting the better-than-expected growth of 2.4% in the second quarter
• How inflation has decreased and wage growth has come down
• The impressive GDP growth expected in the third quarter
• Positive earnings reports from companies
• The stock market projection for August
• The recent performance and potential upside of energy and industrial stocks
• The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate hike
• Predictions of no more rate hikes due to expected decrease in core inflation, vehicle prices, and housing rental inflation
• And more!

Resources:

• Facts Vs Feelings Ep. 44 - Talking About the Bull Market with Tom Lee 

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

As the financial markets remain on the rise and unpredictable...

It is critical to seek guidance and insights from experts who have a complete understanding of market dynamics which is crucial for investors and enthusiasts alike.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese sit down with Tom Lee, Managing Partner & Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC. They chat about Tom's perspective on the bull market and how he stays informed about the markets. They also talk about international perspectives, demographics, and credit in market growth. Additionally, they touch on inflation, the Fed's actions, and the importance of mentors.

Tom discusses: 

• What he looks at first thing in the morning regarding the markets
• The reasons behind his bullishness at the start of the year
• How regional biases impact market outlooks in Europe, Asia, and Latin America
• His motivation for leaving JP Morgan and starting his own research company
• How demographics and credit play a role in understanding growth and market trends
• The importance of maintaining a sense of humor in the unpredictable market
• The potential trajectory of inflation and the Fed's possible actions in the future
• The influential mentors in his career and the importance of finding a good mentor
• And more!

Resources:

• Sign up here for a 30-day free trial and 10% off a future Fundstrat subscription

Connect with Tom Lee: 

• LinkedIn: Tom Lee
• Fundstrat - Website

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About our guest:

Thomas Lee is a Managing Partner and the Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. He is an accomplished Wall Street strategist with over 25 years of experience in equity research and has been top-ranked by Institutional Investor every year since 1998. Prior to co-founding Fundstrat, he served most recently as J.P. Morgan’s Chief Equity Strategist from 2007 to 2014, and previously as Managing Director at Salomon Smith Barney. His areas of expertise include Market Strategy, Small/Mid-Cap Strategy, and Telecom Services.

Mr. Lee received his BSE from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania with concentrations in Finance and Accounting. He is a CFA charter holder and is an active member of NYSSA and the NY Economic Club.

Navigating investment options can be overwhelming.

That is why the financial world requires careful decision-making, disciplined processes, and diversification.

Today we speak with someone who knows this perfectly.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese chat with Meb Faber, the Founder and CEO of Cambria Investments. Meb talks about investment portfolios, ETFs, and the challenges of money management, highlighting the importance of focusing on the process rather than the glamor of investing. Additionally, Meb gives a valuable message to young people starting in their careers and investing and the importance of diversifying globally.

Meb discusses: 

• The difference between managing money and the business of money management
• The criteria for launching new funds and the importance of offering something different in the market
• The significance of incorporating both dividends and net buybacks in evaluating shareholder yield
• An analysis of the current market conditions with a significant spread between cheap and expensive stocks
• His advice to youngsters who want to start in the investment world and have a successful career
• Some of the top investment books, including "The Millionaire Next Door" and "Thinking, Fast and Slow"
• The importance of diversifying asset allocation globally, rather than being concentrated in the US market
• And more!

Resources:

• The Idea Farm
• Meb Faber - Website

Connect with Meb Faber: 

• LinkedIn: Meb Faber
• Twitter: Meb Faber
• Cambria Investments

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

As we approach the midpoint of the year, it's crucial to evaluate the current condition of the stock market and the overall economy.

What can we anticipate in the second half of the year?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese speak about the mid-year outlook for the stock market and the economy. They highlight positive performance and surprises, leading to a bullish outlook. They delve into the labor market, the Federal Reserve's decisions, and concerns like US-China relations and the semiconductor industry.

Sonu & Ryan discuss: 

• The unexpected rise and strong performance of the NASDAQ, particularly in May, with mention of NVIDIA's earnings report
• The outlook for stock gains and the potential for reaching all-time highs
• The performance and potential of developed international markets
• The state of the economy and the Federal Reserve's role in avoiding a recession
• Inflation, interest rates, and the Fed's stance on raising rates
• Potential worries that could disrupt the stock market, including the relationship between China and the United States
• The impact of geopolitical risk on inflation and how disruptions can affect the economy
• The stock market forecast for the year and the importance of grounding investment decisions in historical evidence
• And more!

Resources:

• Putting Theory Into Action with Jessica Golson, CIPM (Ep. 41)

Connect with Ryan Detrick: 

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese: 

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese