Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits.

The market didn’t just wobble today, it lurched. We jump right into the live cattle and feeder cattle futures break, then unpack what’s actually driving the pressure: a softer cash tone, an extremely strong basis, beef prices drifting lower with the season, and packer margins stuck deep in the red. When you pile on a large front-end supply of fed cattle and record heavy carcass weights, the “why” behind the volatility starts to come into focus fast.

Mike Sands helps us sort through the signal versus the noise as we preview two major USDA reports coming at the end of the week: the Cattle on Feed report and the mid-year cattle inventory report. We talk about what it means if feedlot inventories stay above last year, why cattle on feed over 180 days matters so much for marketing flexibility, and how heavy weights can keep fed beef tonnage near or above last year even if the national herd feels historically tight.

We also zoom out to the longer game. Heifer retention may be inching higher, but drought and stocking rates can change plans overnight, and the cattle cycle turns slowly. On top of that, higher corn prices, stronger basis, and rising energy costs are reshaping break-evens at the worst possible time. We close with a hard look at feeder cattle supply, the impact of the southern border closure, and why Mexico’s feeding industry may have permanently changed the old import math.

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Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits.