FiveThirtyEight Politics

In this late-night, election-night edition of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the results showing Donald Trump winning a second presidential term.

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At long last, Election Day is upon us. In this final pre-results episode, the crew shares a guide for what to expect on election night — from the first poll closures in Indiana, to the last poll closures in Alaska. They set expectations for how long the vote may take to tally and which counties to keep an eye on.

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Polls were coming in hot and heavy over the weekend! In fact, 164 surveys were entered into the 538 database since Friday. In this Election Day eve episode of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with senior researcher Mary Radcliffe and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik about what we are seeing in those final polls.

They discuss the famed Iowa Poll from Ann Selzer, which showed a rosy picture for Harris, and the battleground polling from the New York Times, which showed results that frustrate some of the trends we've come to expect this cycle. They also share some final thoughts on the election in the run up to the big day.

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It’s not just election season; it’s spooky season, too.

In this Halloween installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew opens up the mailbag and answers listeners’ questions. Does favorability matter? Can bad weather affect turnout? And what would you do with an election crystal ball?

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Looking back on the 2020 election, the time between Election Day and Inauguration Day stands out as one of the most fraught and uncertain in recent American history. Will 2024 follow a similar path? In this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen talks with Larry Norden, vice president of the Elections and Government Program at the Brennan Center, to provide a clearer picture of what we might expect after Election Day. They discuss when results could be expected, the types of misinformation that may circulate after the votes are cast, and why this election is seeing more litigation than any before it.

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Last week, John Kelly, former President Donald Trump’s longest-serving chief of staff, said Trump fit the definition of a “fascist.” Democrats have seized on the comment, using it to underline Trump’s anti-democratic tendencies in these final days before Election Day.

On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses how much voters care about democracy. And they look at a new poll that might shed light on the behavior of a new group of swing voters: young men.

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We are awash in data. As Election Day draws near, and new polls continue to pile up, our information overload will only intensify.

So today on the 538 Politics podcast, we’re simplifying. We asked 11 very smart people just one question: What is the most valuable data point you’re watching to understand this election? These are their answers.

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For decades, Republicans were thought of as the country club set, while Democrats were the party of the working class. But increasingly, education has become a larger dividing line in American politics than economic status. This trend has seen college-educated voters move toward the Democratic Party and non-college-educated voters shift toward Republicans.

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Matt Grossmann and David Hopkins, authors of "Polarized by Degrees: How the Diploma Divide and the Culture War Transformed American Politics." They explore how this educational divide is reshaping not just electoral outcomes, but the way each party approaches governance and policy.

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With Election Day just two weeks away, Republicans and Democrats are zeroing in on undecided voters. But the profile of the typical swing voter has changed. Move over, soccer moms. Say hello to … podcast bros?

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew looks at who the undecided voters are in this election. They also examine what appears to be a surprisingly competitive Senate race in ruby-red Nebraska.

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We talk plenty about the presidential race on the 538 Politics podcast, but of course, that is not the only thing on the ballot this November. Americans will cast their votes in races for the U.S. Senate and House, as well as dozens of ballot initiatives.

In this installment of the podcast, we’re going on a road trip across the country to cover as many noteworthy downballot races as possible. We start in the 538 podcast studio in New York state, where House Democrats are hoping for a better outcome than their lackluster 2022 performance, and we end in Alaska. Grab your favorite snacks and get in!

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