FiveThirtyEight Politics

As an extremely close presidential campaign heads into the homestretch, economic news abounds. The jobs report released last week fell short of expectations, and the Federal Reserve appears ready to cut interest rates later this month. Will any of it matter? Or have Americans generally made up their minds about this economy?

Plus, the crew previews Tuesday night’s presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump, and they test their knowledge of historic debate moments.

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Election Day is exactly two months away, meaning the final stretch of the presidential campaign is upon us. On Tuesday’s show, we assessed the current state of the race and how we got here. Today, we look ahead to the knowns and unknowns that could shake up the race in the coming weeks.

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Labor Day is behind us and the conventional final stretch of the 2024 presidential campaign is here. There will be a rush of advertising, debates, more urgent attention paid to jobs reports, and October surprises.

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we look at where we are in the campaign and how we got here. In the second episode this week, we'll look at what to expect over the coming two months.

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This month both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump released a slate of economic proposals in an attempt to gain the upper hand on the issue most important to voters. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Jeanna Smialek from The New York Times about the current state of the economy, voter perceptions of it and how the candidates’ proposals might shape both of those factors.

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Just as the Democratic National Convention wrapped up, independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the 2024 race. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew tries to parse the effect that both events could have on the presidential race. They also look to Washington state's primary for an indication of how the House popular vote might play out this fall.

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In this late-night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the final night of the Democratic National Convention.

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In this late-night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the third night of the Democratic National Convention.

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The crew reacts to night two of the Democratic National Convention.

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The Democratic National Convention is upon us. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses what to expect from the Democrats' weeklong pitch to voters. They also consider how a shorter general election timeline changes the dynamics of the race and how Vice President Kamala Harris's coalition is different from President Joe Biden's.

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One of the most promising electoral trends for Republicans during the Trump era has been a shift among Latino voters toward Republicans. The eight percentage point swing from Clinton in 2016 to Trump in 2020 represented the largest shift of any racial or ethnic group in either direction.

And the erosion of support for Democrats didn’t stop there. In a poll of Latino voters in battleground states from the research group Equis in May, Biden was leading Trump among Latinos by only 5 percentage points. But Biden is no longer in the race, so do any of these trends still apply?

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with co-founder of Equis Research Carlos Odio about the new trends among Latino voters now that Harris is at the top of the ticket.

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