Run the Numbers

Forecasting Revenue and Managing Volatility with Naeem Ishaq of Checkr, Inc.


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In this episode, CJ interviews Naeem Ishaq of Checkr, Inc., and three-time CFO. Naeem shares insights into what a CFO should aim to accomplish in their first 100 days at a new company, including key topics for their first board meeting and the importance of training the board on relevant metrics. The discussion delves into navigating diverse business models, where Naeem unpacks the nuances of forecasting for consumption-based versus SaaS models, including the application of deterministic and probabilistic modeling. Naeem is possibly the first CFO to be a guest on this show that uses AI and large language models significantly in revenue forecasting. He sheds light on how he does this, highlighting the best variables for these models. Having experienced the crypto winter during his time at Circle and the Covid pandemic during his time at Checkr, Naeem also gives helpful advice about managing volatility in business. 

If you're looking for an ERP head to NetSuite: https://netsuite.com/metrics and get a customized KPI checklist.

SPONSORS:

Maxio is the only billing and financial operations platform that was purpose built for B2B SaaS. They're helping SaaS finance teams automate billing and revenue recognition, manage collections and payments, and put together investor grade reporting packages. 🚀 Request a demo at www.maxio.com/runthenumbers for 10% off your first year.

Leapfin is accounting automation software that automatically prepares and posts reliable journal entries. High-growth businesses like Reddit, Canva, and Seat Geek choose Leapfin to eliminate manual tasks, accelerate month-end close, and enable accounting leaders to provide faster insights to help their companies grow. To automatically standardize your revenue data with measurable business impact, check out leapfin.com today. 

Mercury is the fintech ambitious companies use for banking and all their financial workflows. With a powerful bank account at the center of their operations, companies can make better financial decisions and ensure that every dollar spent aligns with company priorities. That's why over 100K startups choose Mercury to confidently run all their financial operations with the precision, control, and focus they need to operate at their best. Learn more at mercury.com.

Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group and Evolve Bank & Trust®; Members FDIC.

NetSuite provides financial software for all your business needs. More than 40,000 companies have already upgraded to NetSuite, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you're looking for an ERP platform ✅, head to NetSuite https://netsuite.com/metrics and get the CFO’s Guide to AI and Machine Learning. 

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@cjgustafson222 (CJ)

TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Preview and Intro

(02:15) Sponsor – Maxio | Leapfin

(04:59) A CFO’s First 100 Days at a New Company

(06:47) Topics for Your First Board Meeting

(09:24) Training Your Board on the Metrics or “Templatizing”

(10:24) Realigning Expectations on the Business Forecast

(11:33) Takeaways or Accomplishments from the First Year

(12:41) Building Relationships with the C-Suite

(15:44) Sponsor – Mercury | NetSuite

(17:54) Aligning with the CEO

(21:10) Forecasting for Consumption-Based Versus SaaS Models

(23:25) Deterministic Versus Probabilistic Modeling

(25:18) Using LLMs for Revenue Forecasting

(27:55) Metrics for Consumption-Based Models

(32:47) Managing Volatility in Business Models

(36:19) Unique Seasonality

(38:40) Adjusting to the Crypto Winter at Circle

(42:35) Coping with the Pandemic at Checkr

(48:01) Working with Balaji from Coinbase

(50:20) Long-Ass Lightning Round: Patience and Living in the Moment

(53:10) Finance Software Stack

(54:47) Craziest Expense Story



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Run the NumbersBy CJ Gustafson

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