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GDT Review with Jon Spainhour – July 2, 2024
Listen Now
Guest Host Phil Plourd and Jon Spainhour take a deep dive into this week’s GDT report.
Questions or comments? Contact Jon at [email protected], Cody at [email protected], or give us a call at (312) 492-4200.
Show Transcript
(Transcript auto-generated)
00;00;00;10 – 00;00;08;17
VOICEOVER
Future trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this segment is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.
00;00;08;19 – 00;00;24;28
PHIL
Hello everybody. Welcome to another GDP Tuesday. I am your substitute host, Phil Plourde, filling in for Cody Costa, who is off on assignment today. I am joined as always by Mr. John Spain, our live from the Chicago office. Hey John are you today.
00;00;24;28 – 00;00;28;22
JON
Doing great Phil. And ready for the 4th of July holiday weekend?
00;00;28;28 – 00;00;43;28
PHIL
Well, we had some fireworks down Under today or in Oceana with a GTI, kind of a buttoned up in GDP aggregate average down 6.9% versus the previous session. Lowest aggregate print since March 19th. What the heck.
00;00;43;28 – 00;01;06;00
JON
Happened? Well, Phil, you are correct. It is a down GDP and it was down quite a bit. It is you mentioned the lowest price since March, and I think we have to look at it through the lens of. It’s been a while since we’ve seen an aggregate auction that has moved this much lower. I’m going all the way back to the beginning of the year here, and I don’t see one that’s moved.
00;01;06;00 – 00;01;06;06
JON
Yeah, it’s.
00;01;06;06 – 00;01;07;07
PHIL
A big downtick, big.
00;01;07;07 – 00;01;30;16
JON
Downtick here today. Some of the details that go into it. You know, some of the highlights here, if you will. The butter price on an 82% butter fat value, down 10.9% to $2.97. If we look at it through the AMF side, it fared almost as poorly or exactly as poorly, at 10.9% lower, coming in at 296 on average pound equivalent.
00;01;30;16 – 00;01;50;27
JON
I guess we can look at that and say that the futures were expecting that we don’t have a GDP pulse for butter, so we can only kind of go with market talk. And looking at the futures. I would say that this was in line with the futures on the butter fat side. However, I would point out that the butter futures have been pointing towards a big decline for a while.
00;01;50;27 – 00;02;10;27
JON
If you remember, it was the last auction that the butter and AMF markets went up substantially. So this is kind of a reset as we go to the cheddar side of things. Cheddar came in at 5.4% lower, coming in at about $1.81. You could say again we don’t have the pulse to look at on cheese. We don’t even have cheese futures on the futures.
00;02;10;27 – 00;02;32;26
JON
But I would point out that the block price here on the US is 190. The barrel price is 188. So call it that. You know, 189 average there. And here is cheddar on the GDP coming down to 181. You’re up right now in that 190 area or high one 80s. This would put the New Zealand cheddar price is the lowest in the world.
00;02;32;26 – 00;02;53;28
JON
And now moving on to the powders where probably most of the wind came out of the sales and the powder markets. Looking at the skim market, skim came in 6.5% lower at an average price of about $1.17. When we look at what we’re expectations is, I would say that came in are a little lower than expectations on the skim powder price.
00;02;53;28 – 00;03;18;03
JON
I would say that the EU price last week, as a result of the GDP pulse, was trading around 117 to 115. So it looks like the pulse was trading around 117. The EU was trading around 115, 117 futures were headed in this direction, maybe a smidge higher. And here we come in at $1.17. So I would say that came in maybe a little bit lower than expectations.
00;03;18;03 – 00;03;46;05
JON
The big drag on the market was whole milk powder. It was down 5.2%. That is slightly lower than what the pulse was predicting, but generally in line with where the SGX futures were pointing to. So all in all, the market kind of pulled down here this morning. And I would say that the majority of the anchor on the aggregate came out of the skim and the whole milk powders, which again, were down 6.5 and 5.2% respectively.
00;03;46;06 – 00;03;57;29
PHIL
You forgot one, John. You forgot the only market that closed higher today. It looks like lactose $804 a ton, up 6/10 of a percent according to the GDP website. So it wasn’t all the washout. Mighty little lactose.
00;03;57;29 – 00;04;12;05
JON
I apologize as well to anybody that was looking for a market that closed higher. We had mozzarella cheese. There was mozzarella that traded five loads out of Western Europe, out of celeriac today, and it looks like at a price of about $1.93.
00;04;12;05 – 00;04;32;19
PHIL
We’re splitting hairs now John. So let’s talk about volume. Yeah. You know someone noted internally today that well okay we’re down. But understand that the volume of trade this time around, the value of product on offer was up. Now we can talk about why it was up, whether that’s a function of supply demand. But we did have a little bit more volume today in the mix which could have influenced results to some degree.
00;04;32;19 – 00;04;33;26
PHIL
Is that a fair assessment or no.
00;04;33;27 – 00;04;53;28
JON
Yeah. I think, you know, we’ve talked about it several times on this podcast. If we look back, we can say that China has largely been absent. They’ve been here. But if we just look at their historical performance on the GDP as compared to what they’re doing right now, it is extremely light right now. And we could say China’s just really not participating at the same point in time.
00;04;53;28 – 00;05;18;28
JON
Southeast Asia is really participating or punching well outside of their weight class. There’s a temptation to say, well, China’s gone, but Southeast Asia is there, right? We don’t really need China. And look at where prices are. And I think maybe that line of thinking is okay in times when the seasonal volumes on the GDP are at their lows, and when we’re in the summertime here, we’re in the seasonal lows of New Zealand.
00;05;18;29 – 00;05;39;17
JON
Right. And now we’re going to start moving out of the seasonal lows on the volumes as New Zealand and into some of their seasonal highs. And once you start increasing the volumes there, I think that’s really where we see the effect of China’s absence. And this was the first auction we’ve seen in quite a while that volumes went up and they went up substantially on this auction.
00;05;39;17 – 00;05;54;20
JON
We can see that China was still absent. Southeast Asia gave one of their best performances in a very long time. And at the same point in time, prices went down 6%. And I think this is a real testament to the importance of the volume that’s on offer. You know, at any one point in time.
00;05;54;22 – 00;06;10;14
PHIL
I mean, I hate to be a bummer here for, you know, anybody that wants to be bullish, some of these markets. But don’t we just kind of kick them up. The same answer that great Southeast Asians they’re nice. You know Middle East makes a showing every once in a while. But in the main overall global demand still seems kind of all right.
00;06;10;14 – 00;06;28;19
PHIL
We just don’t seem to have a lot of legs. Pick your participant. That’s they’re not there. Pick your factor of the moment. But this sort of speaks to all right. We’ve got higher the past few auctions and we’ve recovered in some of these markets. But there’s still a general malaise or there’s resistance at certain price levels. Is that a fair or unfair reading of where we’re at some of these markets?
00;06;28;19 – 00;06;45;06
JON
I guess I would look at it and say is an extremely fair outlook on the market. Again, when you take the amount of milk solids that China has brought, traditionally brought into the country out of the rest of the world, it’s a big number. You know, you factor that into the milk solids equivalent count. You could say demand is down, right.
00;06;45;06 – 00;07;05;24
JON
If they’re not bringing it in. And that means something. And a lot of times it takes a while for that loss of demand to bubble up somewhere else. And I would say at the same point in time, we’ve had a somewhat restricted supply environment. We had Europe that had been on the lower end of things. We’ve had the US, we just saw as point 9% lower, you know, at least on the milk collections count.
00;07;05;24 – 00;07;32;03
JON
I don’t know about solids. I think we’re actually higher there. But there’s an argument to be said that, hey, we also had a little bit less supply and that kept things rather balanced. But Phil, to your point, at the demand level, I think things are still rather off. And I think as we go into the New Zealand season and see their milk production pick back up seasonally as well as we’re already seeing out of Europe, Germany and France, those milk production numbers are going from okay, well, they’re a little bit higher too.
00;07;32;04 – 00;07;49;03
JON
Oh boy. We better keep an eye us. I think we’re starting to see milk in Europe get a little bit bigger. And I think places like Southeast Asia are probably going to start looking to maybe start pulling some of their demand if they have any left and maybe looking over into Europe. Right. And that could let the New Zealand price go even lower.
00;07;49;07 – 00;08;23;29
PHIL
And let’s be fair here. I mean, the butter market isn’t cheap, right? And we have, you know, the Dutch butter prices somewhere in the $3 and ten 320 area. Until today we had the GDP three and a quarter on the last go round at 80% fat. Today down to 290. Steve Spencer and our friends colleagues in the Fresh Agenda office in Melbourne have been talking about price resistance in the marketplace at like €7,000 per ton in Europe, and maybe the $7,500 neighborhood where we just left on the Oceana price.
00;08;23;29 – 00;08;32;22
PHIL
Do we read anything out of the GDP kind of slapping back pretty hard here, down 10.9% down to 290 a pound. And what might that mean for the US marketplace?
00;08;32;23 – 00;08;49;08
JON
Well, again, I think it’s important to point out that on the last auction, prices went up quite a bit on the fat price. So again, this is a little bit of a recalibration, but I think we did find some price resistance out there. Right. Especially in Europe. And I think here on the GDP as well. I mean these are big prices.
00;08;49;08 – 00;09;10;06
JON
There’s no way around it. Right? But these are big prices around the world. And it’s not only a high price in Europe, as you mentioned, it’s a high price in New Zealand. Even being down 11%, we’re still at 297. That’s a big number, right. And here in the US now we find ourselves just shy of 314, which is only a penny and a quarter lower than the highest price of the year so far.
00;09;10;07 – 00;09;27;22
JON
And that also, I should point out, puts the US as the highest price in the world on a global level. Yeah, we probably found some price resistance. You know, I think that might hinder our ability to go higher at the same point in time, converse from nonfat, where we have to export a tremendous amount of our annual production and butter.
00;09;27;22 – 00;09;43;07
JON
We don’t have to export. So if the rest of the world goes down $0.20, we might not necessarily need to follow, because I don’t think we’re going to attract any imports at that kind of discount. And I certainly don’t think we’re going to lose very many exports, because I don’t think we’ve been exporting that much right now.
00;09;43;11 – 00;09;58;15
PHIL
Yeah. I was just wondering if the world was hanging out at three, you know, how cheap could the US really get without engendering some talk of exports or maybe thoughts of fewer imports? But as long as everything seems to be kind of all together, it may not be material. To your point, let’s talk about nonfat dry milk. Skim for a moment.
00;09;58;15 – 00;10;15;09
PHIL
Everybody in the world is bunched up at 117, basically, we don’t have a Dutch print yet. This week it was $1.18. Last week we have $1.17 here. GDP today, US trading dollar 17. We’re all together. We have the same conversation. I feel well, there isn’t much supply. And if anybody ever needed some boy it’d be a fun market to watch.
00;10;15;09 – 00;10;19;10
PHIL
But once again it doesn’t seem like anybody needs it, right? Is that the same old story there?
00;10;19;11 – 00;10;46;05
JON
You know, I think it could be that. I also do look at it, Phil, and say that and you’ve heard me say this a million times, that I feel like the US has to be in line with the rest of the world. We just have to export so much of our production and even if we do lose a little bit of production generally, what that does is it tightens the discount that we trade to the rest of the world, and sometimes allows us to go into a bit of a premium, but we are still tethered to that international price.
00;10;46;05 – 00;11;01;09
JON
And with the international price going down to this 117 level, you know, it just makes it hard to imagine that the US price is going to amount to much of a rally here in the short term. And if it does, it can only be short term. And we return back to at least parity to the rest of the world.
00;11;01;15 – 00;11;19;04
PHIL
Yeah, it’s hot in California. Gonna be really hot for the next several days. I mean, that could affect local dynamics in a way that theoretically you would be. Oh, well, it’s 107 degrees in tillery and nonfat three higher. You wouldn’t follow your chair with that, but to your point, may not be able sustain any local rallies for very long because the world market situation just won’t.
00;11;19;04 – 00;11;38;18
JON
Allow for it. It won’t allow for it. Again, we’ve talked about it so many times. If you’re a New Zealand and you have a lot of milk solids that you have traditionally shipped to China and you don’t have that market place to go to, you better go find a new place to put those milk solids. And one of those new markets they’re developing more switching into would be skim milk powder.
00;11;38;18 – 00;11;43;20
JON
I think there’s going to be plenty of skim for sale on the international market at this moment in time.
00;11;43;20 – 00;11;46;25
PHIL
Well, other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?
00;11;46;28 – 00;11;48;20
JON
Not meant to be a Debbie Downer.
00;11;48;23 – 00;12;05;24
PHIL
We can only work with the material at hand. Even Cody Koster, the ever bright and effervescent Cody Koster, might have been brought down a peg by today’s results. I mean, I suppose if you’re, you know, super bearish this market, you’d be kind of tap dancing quietly, but not much nourishment for the bulls here today. Anything else would you be talking about today John before we wrap it.
00;12;05;24 – 00;12;11;29
JON
Up, just hope everybody has a great holiday weekend and comes back safely with all ten fingers and all ten toes.
00;12;11;29 – 00;12;24;01
PHIL
All right. Well with that, that’s this week’s GDP Tuesday. Thanks as always to our ever ag insights crew for their excellent production and making John and especially me sound good. Until the next time, thank you.
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By Ever.Ag
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Listen Now
Guest Host Phil Plourd and Jon Spainhour take a deep dive into this week’s GDT report.
Questions or comments? Contact Jon at [email protected], Cody at [email protected], or give us a call at (312) 492-4200.
Show Transcript
(Transcript auto-generated)
00;00;00;10 – 00;00;08;17
VOICEOVER
Future trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this segment is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.
00;00;08;19 – 00;00;24;28
PHIL
Hello everybody. Welcome to another GDP Tuesday. I am your substitute host, Phil Plourde, filling in for Cody Costa, who is off on assignment today. I am joined as always by Mr. John Spain, our live from the Chicago office. Hey John are you today.
00;00;24;28 – 00;00;28;22
JON
Doing great Phil. And ready for the 4th of July holiday weekend?
00;00;28;28 – 00;00;43;28
PHIL
Well, we had some fireworks down Under today or in Oceana with a GTI, kind of a buttoned up in GDP aggregate average down 6.9% versus the previous session. Lowest aggregate print since March 19th. What the heck.
00;00;43;28 – 00;01;06;00
JON
Happened? Well, Phil, you are correct. It is a down GDP and it was down quite a bit. It is you mentioned the lowest price since March, and I think we have to look at it through the lens of. It’s been a while since we’ve seen an aggregate auction that has moved this much lower. I’m going all the way back to the beginning of the year here, and I don’t see one that’s moved.
00;01;06;00 – 00;01;06;06
JON
Yeah, it’s.
00;01;06;06 – 00;01;07;07
PHIL
A big downtick, big.
00;01;07;07 – 00;01;30;16
JON
Downtick here today. Some of the details that go into it. You know, some of the highlights here, if you will. The butter price on an 82% butter fat value, down 10.9% to $2.97. If we look at it through the AMF side, it fared almost as poorly or exactly as poorly, at 10.9% lower, coming in at 296 on average pound equivalent.
00;01;30;16 – 00;01;50;27
JON
I guess we can look at that and say that the futures were expecting that we don’t have a GDP pulse for butter, so we can only kind of go with market talk. And looking at the futures. I would say that this was in line with the futures on the butter fat side. However, I would point out that the butter futures have been pointing towards a big decline for a while.
00;01;50;27 – 00;02;10;27
JON
If you remember, it was the last auction that the butter and AMF markets went up substantially. So this is kind of a reset as we go to the cheddar side of things. Cheddar came in at 5.4% lower, coming in at about $1.81. You could say again we don’t have the pulse to look at on cheese. We don’t even have cheese futures on the futures.
00;02;10;27 – 00;02;32;26
JON
But I would point out that the block price here on the US is 190. The barrel price is 188. So call it that. You know, 189 average there. And here is cheddar on the GDP coming down to 181. You’re up right now in that 190 area or high one 80s. This would put the New Zealand cheddar price is the lowest in the world.
00;02;32;26 – 00;02;53;28
JON
And now moving on to the powders where probably most of the wind came out of the sales and the powder markets. Looking at the skim market, skim came in 6.5% lower at an average price of about $1.17. When we look at what we’re expectations is, I would say that came in are a little lower than expectations on the skim powder price.
00;02;53;28 – 00;03;18;03
JON
I would say that the EU price last week, as a result of the GDP pulse, was trading around 117 to 115. So it looks like the pulse was trading around 117. The EU was trading around 115, 117 futures were headed in this direction, maybe a smidge higher. And here we come in at $1.17. So I would say that came in maybe a little bit lower than expectations.
00;03;18;03 – 00;03;46;05
JON
The big drag on the market was whole milk powder. It was down 5.2%. That is slightly lower than what the pulse was predicting, but generally in line with where the SGX futures were pointing to. So all in all, the market kind of pulled down here this morning. And I would say that the majority of the anchor on the aggregate came out of the skim and the whole milk powders, which again, were down 6.5 and 5.2% respectively.
00;03;46;06 – 00;03;57;29
PHIL
You forgot one, John. You forgot the only market that closed higher today. It looks like lactose $804 a ton, up 6/10 of a percent according to the GDP website. So it wasn’t all the washout. Mighty little lactose.
00;03;57;29 – 00;04;12;05
JON
I apologize as well to anybody that was looking for a market that closed higher. We had mozzarella cheese. There was mozzarella that traded five loads out of Western Europe, out of celeriac today, and it looks like at a price of about $1.93.
00;04;12;05 – 00;04;32;19
PHIL
We’re splitting hairs now John. So let’s talk about volume. Yeah. You know someone noted internally today that well okay we’re down. But understand that the volume of trade this time around, the value of product on offer was up. Now we can talk about why it was up, whether that’s a function of supply demand. But we did have a little bit more volume today in the mix which could have influenced results to some degree.
00;04;32;19 – 00;04;33;26
PHIL
Is that a fair assessment or no.
00;04;33;27 – 00;04;53;28
JON
Yeah. I think, you know, we’ve talked about it several times on this podcast. If we look back, we can say that China has largely been absent. They’ve been here. But if we just look at their historical performance on the GDP as compared to what they’re doing right now, it is extremely light right now. And we could say China’s just really not participating at the same point in time.
00;04;53;28 – 00;05;18;28
JON
Southeast Asia is really participating or punching well outside of their weight class. There’s a temptation to say, well, China’s gone, but Southeast Asia is there, right? We don’t really need China. And look at where prices are. And I think maybe that line of thinking is okay in times when the seasonal volumes on the GDP are at their lows, and when we’re in the summertime here, we’re in the seasonal lows of New Zealand.
00;05;18;29 – 00;05;39;17
JON
Right. And now we’re going to start moving out of the seasonal lows on the volumes as New Zealand and into some of their seasonal highs. And once you start increasing the volumes there, I think that’s really where we see the effect of China’s absence. And this was the first auction we’ve seen in quite a while that volumes went up and they went up substantially on this auction.
00;05;39;17 – 00;05;54;20
JON
We can see that China was still absent. Southeast Asia gave one of their best performances in a very long time. And at the same point in time, prices went down 6%. And I think this is a real testament to the importance of the volume that’s on offer. You know, at any one point in time.
00;05;54;22 – 00;06;10;14
PHIL
I mean, I hate to be a bummer here for, you know, anybody that wants to be bullish, some of these markets. But don’t we just kind of kick them up. The same answer that great Southeast Asians they’re nice. You know Middle East makes a showing every once in a while. But in the main overall global demand still seems kind of all right.
00;06;10;14 – 00;06;28;19
PHIL
We just don’t seem to have a lot of legs. Pick your participant. That’s they’re not there. Pick your factor of the moment. But this sort of speaks to all right. We’ve got higher the past few auctions and we’ve recovered in some of these markets. But there’s still a general malaise or there’s resistance at certain price levels. Is that a fair or unfair reading of where we’re at some of these markets?
00;06;28;19 – 00;06;45;06
JON
I guess I would look at it and say is an extremely fair outlook on the market. Again, when you take the amount of milk solids that China has brought, traditionally brought into the country out of the rest of the world, it’s a big number. You know, you factor that into the milk solids equivalent count. You could say demand is down, right.
00;06;45;06 – 00;07;05;24
JON
If they’re not bringing it in. And that means something. And a lot of times it takes a while for that loss of demand to bubble up somewhere else. And I would say at the same point in time, we’ve had a somewhat restricted supply environment. We had Europe that had been on the lower end of things. We’ve had the US, we just saw as point 9% lower, you know, at least on the milk collections count.
00;07;05;24 – 00;07;32;03
JON
I don’t know about solids. I think we’re actually higher there. But there’s an argument to be said that, hey, we also had a little bit less supply and that kept things rather balanced. But Phil, to your point, at the demand level, I think things are still rather off. And I think as we go into the New Zealand season and see their milk production pick back up seasonally as well as we’re already seeing out of Europe, Germany and France, those milk production numbers are going from okay, well, they’re a little bit higher too.
00;07;32;04 – 00;07;49;03
JON
Oh boy. We better keep an eye us. I think we’re starting to see milk in Europe get a little bit bigger. And I think places like Southeast Asia are probably going to start looking to maybe start pulling some of their demand if they have any left and maybe looking over into Europe. Right. And that could let the New Zealand price go even lower.
00;07;49;07 – 00;08;23;29
PHIL
And let’s be fair here. I mean, the butter market isn’t cheap, right? And we have, you know, the Dutch butter prices somewhere in the $3 and ten 320 area. Until today we had the GDP three and a quarter on the last go round at 80% fat. Today down to 290. Steve Spencer and our friends colleagues in the Fresh Agenda office in Melbourne have been talking about price resistance in the marketplace at like €7,000 per ton in Europe, and maybe the $7,500 neighborhood where we just left on the Oceana price.
00;08;23;29 – 00;08;32;22
PHIL
Do we read anything out of the GDP kind of slapping back pretty hard here, down 10.9% down to 290 a pound. And what might that mean for the US marketplace?
00;08;32;23 – 00;08;49;08
JON
Well, again, I think it’s important to point out that on the last auction, prices went up quite a bit on the fat price. So again, this is a little bit of a recalibration, but I think we did find some price resistance out there. Right. Especially in Europe. And I think here on the GDP as well. I mean these are big prices.
00;08;49;08 – 00;09;10;06
JON
There’s no way around it. Right? But these are big prices around the world. And it’s not only a high price in Europe, as you mentioned, it’s a high price in New Zealand. Even being down 11%, we’re still at 297. That’s a big number, right. And here in the US now we find ourselves just shy of 314, which is only a penny and a quarter lower than the highest price of the year so far.
00;09;10;07 – 00;09;27;22
JON
And that also, I should point out, puts the US as the highest price in the world on a global level. Yeah, we probably found some price resistance. You know, I think that might hinder our ability to go higher at the same point in time, converse from nonfat, where we have to export a tremendous amount of our annual production and butter.
00;09;27;22 – 00;09;43;07
JON
We don’t have to export. So if the rest of the world goes down $0.20, we might not necessarily need to follow, because I don’t think we’re going to attract any imports at that kind of discount. And I certainly don’t think we’re going to lose very many exports, because I don’t think we’ve been exporting that much right now.
00;09;43;11 – 00;09;58;15
PHIL
Yeah. I was just wondering if the world was hanging out at three, you know, how cheap could the US really get without engendering some talk of exports or maybe thoughts of fewer imports? But as long as everything seems to be kind of all together, it may not be material. To your point, let’s talk about nonfat dry milk. Skim for a moment.
00;09;58;15 – 00;10;15;09
PHIL
Everybody in the world is bunched up at 117, basically, we don’t have a Dutch print yet. This week it was $1.18. Last week we have $1.17 here. GDP today, US trading dollar 17. We’re all together. We have the same conversation. I feel well, there isn’t much supply. And if anybody ever needed some boy it’d be a fun market to watch.
00;10;15;09 – 00;10;19;10
PHIL
But once again it doesn’t seem like anybody needs it, right? Is that the same old story there?
00;10;19;11 – 00;10;46;05
JON
You know, I think it could be that. I also do look at it, Phil, and say that and you’ve heard me say this a million times, that I feel like the US has to be in line with the rest of the world. We just have to export so much of our production and even if we do lose a little bit of production generally, what that does is it tightens the discount that we trade to the rest of the world, and sometimes allows us to go into a bit of a premium, but we are still tethered to that international price.
00;10;46;05 – 00;11;01;09
JON
And with the international price going down to this 117 level, you know, it just makes it hard to imagine that the US price is going to amount to much of a rally here in the short term. And if it does, it can only be short term. And we return back to at least parity to the rest of the world.
00;11;01;15 – 00;11;19;04
PHIL
Yeah, it’s hot in California. Gonna be really hot for the next several days. I mean, that could affect local dynamics in a way that theoretically you would be. Oh, well, it’s 107 degrees in tillery and nonfat three higher. You wouldn’t follow your chair with that, but to your point, may not be able sustain any local rallies for very long because the world market situation just won’t.
00;11;19;04 – 00;11;38;18
JON
Allow for it. It won’t allow for it. Again, we’ve talked about it so many times. If you’re a New Zealand and you have a lot of milk solids that you have traditionally shipped to China and you don’t have that market place to go to, you better go find a new place to put those milk solids. And one of those new markets they’re developing more switching into would be skim milk powder.
00;11;38;18 – 00;11;43;20
JON
I think there’s going to be plenty of skim for sale on the international market at this moment in time.
00;11;43;20 – 00;11;46;25
PHIL
Well, other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?
00;11;46;28 – 00;11;48;20
JON
Not meant to be a Debbie Downer.
00;11;48;23 – 00;12;05;24
PHIL
We can only work with the material at hand. Even Cody Koster, the ever bright and effervescent Cody Koster, might have been brought down a peg by today’s results. I mean, I suppose if you’re, you know, super bearish this market, you’d be kind of tap dancing quietly, but not much nourishment for the bulls here today. Anything else would you be talking about today John before we wrap it.
00;12;05;24 – 00;12;11;29
JON
Up, just hope everybody has a great holiday weekend and comes back safely with all ten fingers and all ten toes.
00;12;11;29 – 00;12;24;01
PHIL
All right. Well with that, that’s this week’s GDP Tuesday. Thanks as always to our ever ag insights crew for their excellent production and making John and especially me sound good. Until the next time, thank you.
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