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Global Commodities: 2025 Outlook: bullish on gold for third year; supply-constrained base metals offer better value than oversupplied oil
The BCOM Index is projected to deliver a flat return in 2024 and is expected to remain relatively stable in 2025, as declines in energy are offset by further price increases in metals and agriculture. Food and energy components have accounted for 35% of the decline in the headline U.S. CPI print this year, and commodities are anticipated to continue supporting disinflationary trends in 2025. We maintain our multi-year bullish outlook on gold for the third consecutive year and anticipate stronger gains in silver and platinum. Industrial metals have moved to the second position among our most preferred sectors, and we hold a positive view on agricultural commodities relative to the forward curves. We remain neutral on U.S. natural gas, while our perspective on oil has shifted from neutral to outright bearish.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research
Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research
Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research
This podcast was recorded on 6 December 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4853405-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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By J.P. Morgan Global Research
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The BCOM Index is projected to deliver a flat return in 2024 and is expected to remain relatively stable in 2025, as declines in energy are offset by further price increases in metals and agriculture. Food and energy components have accounted for 35% of the decline in the headline U.S. CPI print this year, and commodities are anticipated to continue supporting disinflationary trends in 2025. We maintain our multi-year bullish outlook on gold for the third consecutive year and anticipate stronger gains in silver and platinum. Industrial metals have moved to the second position among our most preferred sectors, and we hold a positive view on agricultural commodities relative to the forward curves. We remain neutral on U.S. natural gas, while our perspective on oil has shifted from neutral to outright bearish.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research
Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research
Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research
This podcast was recorded on 6 December 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4853405-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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