Global upstream oil and gas spending is tracking $545 billion this year, up from $497 billion in 2022, based on data from 140 public companies and our estimate of private operators’ spending. The latest investment guidance is up 82% from 2020 lows, although still 22% below the 2014 peak. Similarly, producers are on track to complete 59,000 wells globally this year—a 33% decline from the 88,000 new wells put into production in 2014. Yet, total oil supply has risen by about 4% during 2014-2023. For scale, a 103% surge in capex between 2006 and 2014 resulted in a 7% global crude and condensate production growth. A key reason behind the stable production profile despite both investment and well activity levels dropping significantly since 2014 is the declining unit costs due to efficiency and productivity gains. While we find today’s ~$500 billion investment in upstream O&G supply healthy, we estimate that capital spend needs to stay at the current level in order to satisfy demand in 2030.

 

Speaker:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

 

This podcast was recorded on 27 Oct 2023

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