March 14, 2025

Global Commodities: Incorporating Russian gas increase into the 2026 European balance

9 minutes

Steps continue to be taken toward a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine this year, an outcome that J.P. Morgan Commodities Research has assumed will occur in 2025. Among all commodities under our coverage, natural gas is expected to be impacted the most. As ceasefire negotiations progress, we now incorporate a 15 Bcm/year return of Russian pipeline gas flows to Europe, starting from 2H25. Consequently, we have lowered our price forecast for 2H25, reducing it from 46 EUR/MWh to 40 EUR/MWh. Additionally, our 2026 price forecast has been revised down from 31 EUR/MWh to 25.5 EUR/MWh, with an average price projection for the second half of 2026 approaching 20 EUR/MWh.

Speakers:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

Otar Dgebuadze, European Natural Gas Research

This podcast was recorded on 14 March 2025.

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