July 25, 2025

Global Commodities: Is volatility cheap in September?

12 minutes

Brent and WTI volatility have reached their lowest levels since April, shifting from a bullish to a bearish put bias. As we look ahead to September, we expect a significant increase in volatility, driven by a convergence of both bullish and bearish factors that are set to take place during that month. Notably, Trump's 50-day ultimatum to Russia is set to expire on September 2, just a day before a new European price cap on Russian crude comes into effect on September 3. Additionally, snapback provisions on Iran could be triggered as early as September 1. Meanwhile, 600 kbd of additional summer demand in the Middle East will dissipate in September at exactly the same time as 4-5 mbd of global refining capacity shuts for fall maintenance.

Speaker:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

This podcast was recorded on July 25, 2025.

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