Surpluses in 2025 are expected to widen further into 2026 and 2027, as global oil supply is projected to outpace demand—expanding at three times the rate of demand growth through 2026, before slowing to about one-third of that pace in 2027. This dynamic is likely to exert downward pressure on oil prices. However, the magnitude suggested by market imbalances is unlikely to fully materialize in practice. Adjustments are expected on both the supply and demand sides; however, the greatest burden of rebalancing will almost certainly fall on supply.

Speakers: 

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research 

This podcast was recorded on December 12, 2025.

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