Global Data Pod

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Olya Borichevska, Jessica Murray and Joe Lupton to discuss gender gaps in labor market performance and how women have fared in the recovery from the pandemic.

Concerns over labor market scarring have been especially pronounced for women, who experienced an outsized hit during the 2020 recession compared to men, both in absolute terms and relative to previous recessions. This has raised concerns about structural change and potential scarring that could set back female labor performance.

While the recovery has seen the gender gap close in DM economies, women’s recovery has lagged in EM. We explore the reasons for this divergence and discuss what recent global developments mean for female labor and global labor markets more generally.

Speakers

Nora Szentivanyi, Global EM Economist

Olya Borichevska, Global Economist

Jessica Murray, EMEA EM Research

Joe Lupton, Managing Director, Global Economic Research

 

This podcast was recorded on March 8, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4014692-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4019923-0.pdf  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Events are unfolding rapidly and yet uncertainty is still high and rising. This week, we mark down growth and raise inflation outlooks around the world but this may not yet be enough. Beneath the surface is a healthy global expansion, but it will be put to the test in the coming months.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

We view the macro economic impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine largely through the lens of the energy sector where Russia accounts for more than 10% of global production. So far, sanctions have spared the energy sector and potential additional supply is in the offing from Iran. While risks will remain high – and risk premium maintained in crude oil and natural gas prices – this week’s events are prompting modest downward revisions to growth and upward revisions to inflation forecasts.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Jahangir Aziz

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Bruce Kasman is joined by Natasha Kaneva and Jahangir Aziz to discuss the intensifying Russia-Ukraine conflict and its implication for commodity prices and the global outlook. With Russia moving troops into Ukraine we now believe risk premium will continue to put upward pressure on commodity prices and have raised our forecasts for a number of commodities in which Russia is an important export market. Most notably, we the Brent oil price averaging $115/bbl in 2Q22. There are two sided risks to this forecast. We are not forecasting the imposition of the full range of Western sanctions imposed that could produce large retaliatory action.  At the same time, the rising prospect that Iranian oil comes on to the market could produce lower prices if tensions around Ukraine abate. Rising oil prices is a drag on global growth buts its impact should be tempered by the lifting now underway as the Omicron wave is fading. In all, we do not expect the conflict to give the Fed reason for pause at it is expected to embark on a tightening cycle where we look for moves at each of the next nine meetings.

This podcast was recorded on February 23, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4011886-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4012251-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Featured in this podcast are Bruce Kasman and Michael Hanson. While we continue to raise inflation forecasts and add to our expectations for central bank tightening, it is important to remember that global growth is downshifting this quarter. A risk of oil price spikes remains an important risk, but the latest news highlights consumer resiliency and signs that the COVID drag is fading in Europe. If we are right, these developments are setting the stage for a growth bounce next quarter.

This podcast was recorded on February 18, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Bruce Kasman is joined by Joseph Lupton discussing how Inflation continues to run much hotter than already heightened expectations, this week from a blistering US CPI report for January. Gone is the word “transitory,” but there is a growing sense that the strong readings have more signal of a much tighter global economy that requires much more rapid normalization. March meetings are unlikely to surprise much but beyond that, the path look set to steepen notably.

This podcast was recorded on February 11, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton and Nora Szentivanyi to discuss our recent research on the dramatic tightening underway in global labor markets. Both our DM and EM aggregates show unemployment rates approaching pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2021, an outcome that contrasts with a still-substantial shortfall in GDP. For both regions, this partly reflects pandemic-related disruptions to labor supply that have depressed participation rates. However, a number of other factors are at work. Demand has rotated toward higher-productivity sectors in the US while European policies have reduced the work week while preserving jobs. In EM, we believe the pandemic hit informal sectors unusually hard, reducing GDP in a manner not fully reflected in measured employment. Central banks across the globe are under increasing pressure to adjust policy in response to rapidly labor markets. For now, the DM central bank response will be limited by hopes that a fading of the pandemic might elicit stronger labor supply (US) and productivity (Euro area) growth. 

This podcast was recorded on February 9, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3990349-0 and www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3993206-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Featured in this podcast are Bruce Kasman and Joseph Lupton. Despite clear signs of growth slowing in response to the Omicron drag, the latest data reveal resilience in a number of areas including labor markets. This is keeping central banks focused on inflation and normalization. Last week’s hawkish Fed meeting was followed this week by hawkish meetings from the ECB and BoE. We add rate hikes to both for this year.

This podcast was recorded on February 4, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Featured in this podcast are Hiroshi Ugai, Takafumi Yamawaki, and Benjamin Shatil. While other DM CBs are approaching liftoff, the BoJ will lag in the exit from easy monetary policy, reflecting that only Japan has no clear way to achieve 2% inflation target. That said, the inflation outlook is highly uncertain and the difference in policy direction between the BoJ and other DM CBs may move the financial markets. Under such conditions we discuss whether the BoJ has the possibility to start the process toward the exit, what would be the policy sequence toward the exit, and how it would impact markets. To conclude in advance, adjusting to YCC may come in 2023 as a risk scenario, while the hurdle for liftoff would be much higher. The next governor may put less weight on achieving the target, thereby advancing the move toward the exit. In a plausible risk scenario of adjustment to YCC the BoJ could allow the 10yr JGB yield to rise to 0.15%-0.30% in 2023, implying 1%-2% lower fair value for USD/JPY. Other scenarios with much lower probabilities would accelerate the rise in 10yr JGB yield and the decline in USD/JPY.

This podcast was recorded on Feb 3, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3985451-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3976942-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3972086-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Bruce Kasman is joined by Joseph Lupton to discuss how Chair Powell has sent a strong signal that this normalization cycle will prove different than the last and we now expect the FOMC to hike seven times (175bp) by the end of March 2023. This shift comes against the backdrop of a sharp slowing in US and global growth this quarter. To realize our Fed call, the Omicron drag needs to be short-lived and the threat posed by energy and agricultural supply shocks needs to pass unrealized. Looking beyond the start of the year, risks turn towards the transmission of Fed tightening to financial markets which has varied greatly over previous policy normalizations.

This podcast was recorded on January 28, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.