Global Data Pod

A very busy week in monetary policy watching delivered a set of central banks that are intent on starting down the path of normalization sooner than anticipated earlier this year but with a sense that the journey will be incremental. The implicit hope is for a soft landing that returns labor market to full employment while containing inflation. In the near-term, our baseline sees growth and inflation slowing early next year. The current quarter is looking strong but the new COVID-19 threat poses downside risks to 1Q21 GDP and two-sided risks to inflation.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on December 17, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Bruce Kasman is joined by Michael Feroli, Allan Monks, Joe Lupton, and Greg Fuzesi to discuss this week’s DM central bank policy meetings. Although the Fed, Bank of England, and ECB moved on different fronts, each is accelerating its normalization process while emphasizing that there is no need to move very far. While we believe the Bank of England and Fed will raise rates three times next year, neither central bank is guiding toward a full normalization of stances over 2022-23. In a similar vein, the ECB announced an end to PEPP in March but suggested that policy rates are likely to remain on hold through 2022.

This podcast was recorded on December 16, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3953141-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3952359-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

With pandemic headwinds building, the latest resiliency test to hit the global recovery is not over. However, current quarter outturns continue to impress, with trade numbers out of Asia pointing to a reintegration of supply chains and data out of US, German, and Japan auto sectors showing a rebound. Consumer spending is on the rise, showing notable resilience to multi-decade high inflation that is likely to fall back next quarter—expanding purchasing power. DM central banks are taking note and looking past near-term pandemic risks and down the path to normalization. Next week’s Fed expected to accelerate tapering, telescope lift-off, and boost the hiking pace.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on December 10, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Featured in this podcast is Hiroshi Ugai, Ayako Fujita and Yuka Mera. The Japan economic and policy research team explores the key themes of Japan’s 2022 economic outlook and their implications for markets.

This podcast was recorded on Dec 9, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3940715-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Featured in today's podcast are Bruce Kasman and Joseph Lupton as they discuss activity data point to fading bottlenecks, waning inflation pressures, and improving growth—concentrated in the goods sector. At the same time, rising COVID cases across Europe and the US, and the potential threat of Omicron, pose a risk to the outlook and a challenge for central banks. For now, positive signs on data and a tightening labor market seem to be pushing the Fed to taper faster and hike earlier.

This podcast was recorded on December 3, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Featured in this podcast is Haibin Zhu, Grace Ng, Arthur Luk and Tiffany Wang. The Greater China economics and strategy team present 2022 economic outlook and its implications for strategy recommendations.

This podcast was recorded on December 3, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-3934736-0 and www.jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-3939324-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Featured in this podcast is Seok Gil Park, Sin Beng Ong, Arindam Sandilya and Arthur Luk. The Korea chief economist and the strategy team present 2022 economic outlook and its implications for strategy recommendations.

This podcast was recorded on December 2, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-3938038-0 and www.jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-3937021-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Featured in this podcast is Sin Beng Ong, Raisah Rasid, Seok Gil Park, Jin Tik Ngai, Arthur Luk and Abbas Keshvani. In this podcast, we explore some of the key themes for the ASEAN 2022 outlook; concluding with implications for the FX and rates markets.

This podcast was recorded on December 2, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-3938038-0 and www.jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-3937021-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Featured in this podcast is Sin Beng Ong, Haibin Zhu, Sajjid Chinoy, Arindam Sandilya, Arthur Luk, Abbas Keshvani and Tiffany Wang. In this podcast, we explore some of the key themes for the EM Asia 2022 outlook; with a focus on developments in China and India, concluding with implications for the FX and rates markets.

This podcast was recorded on Dec 1, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-3938038-0 and www.jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-3937021-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton, Jahangir Aziz, and Malcolm Barr to discuss our recently published “2022 Global Economic Outlook: This Time IS Different” amid growing concern around the Omicron variant. Omicron emerges with an already significant rise in global cases and points to a winter wave of infections which is likely to exceed last quarter’s Delta wave. The drag on growth from this wave may prove material but we maintain two views critical to the outlook. The first is that the drag is transitory as greater rate of infection is not accompanied by a significant deterioration in the effectiveness of vaccines in limiting hospitalizations and deaths. The second is that the wave is concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere where we anticipate US and Euro area growth to slow towards a 2%ar in 1Q22.

If we are right, Asia will be less affected as we turn into the new year and provide a growth boost – from rising demand and moderating supply constraints -- that allows the global economy to sustain above-potential performance in 1H22. This dynamic is consistent with our medium-term view that an underlying reflationary tilt is underway which should eliminate global slack next year and see core inflation settle roughly 0.5%-pts above pre-pandemic levels.

This podcast was recorded on November 29, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3930876-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.