Global Data Pod

This week’s news supports our view that Asia – alongside the US consumer – will lead an acceleration in global growth this quarter. However, we have lowered our Euro area GDP growth forecast this week as a new wave of infections is rising across Europe – a development which raises concern for the entire North Hemisphere as we move towards winter. On the policy front new fiscal stimulus is coming in Japan while we now expect two Fed hikes in 2022.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on November 19, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton and Dan Weitzenfeld to discuss the release of the J.P. Morgan Policy Rate Forecast Revision Index (FRIP). The FRIs draw on J.P. Morgan’s long history of forecasting macroeconomic variables for 30 countries to generate a simple index for tracking week-to-week revisions. The policy rate FRI adds to a suite of FRIs already being produced for GDP, inflation, and core inflation. We highlight what the FRIP tells us about the accuracy and efficiency (within and across countries) of J.P. Morgan policy rate forecasts and its implication for our recent forecast revision for the US FOMC to hike twice next year.

 

This podcast was recorded on November 18, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3926221-0.pdf for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Inflation once again surprised to the upside globally this week, with big jumps in the US, LatAm, and much of the CEE, due in part to accelerating energy and services prices. This hit to purchasing power has notably weakened sentiment, particularly in the US. Global auto production also has been beaten down, but some easing of bottleneck pressures should contribute to a strong IP bounce this quarter, starting with next week’s October prints for the US and China.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Michael Hanson

This podcast was recorded on date.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Featured in this podcast is Hiroshi Ugai and Tohru Sasaki. With the current continuation of depreciation, the Japanese yen has fallen to its historical low on a real basis. Amid the sharp rise in energy prices, markets are concerned that yen depreciation may harm Japan’s economy. However, we argue that, although the trade structure has changed, yen depreciation still stimulates Japan’s economy, and those concerns may be largely because it is likely to hit the weakest part of the economy during the pandemic. Next, we discuss the structural background behind the fact that the yen has not returned to appreciation, and various scenarios of the yen’s future. If the Japanese economy realizes an improvement in productivity growth and economic growth, thereby increasing income growth, the yen would stop depreciating at least on a real basis. However, if that does not happen, the currently poor state of the economy could continue or worsen, and the yen could continue to depreciate, both on a nominal and real basis.

This podcast was recorded on Nov 11, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3913011-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3915343-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

The October PMIs showed a strong post-delta wave recovery in services, but supply disruptions continued to weigh down momentum in manufacturing. That said, data out of EM Asia point to a nascent easing of bottlenecks there. The US jobs report revealed strong payroll growth and a further drop in unemployment, but supply constraints also were apparent in the participation rate and job flows. These supply-side issues are pressuring inflation higher and challenging central banks’ communications.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Michael Hanson

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi and Jahangir Aziz discuss the wide variation in post-pandemic recoveries in emerging markets, the persistent damage to medium-term growth and implications for policy and politics. EM has come out worse than DM in the pandemic. Outside of China, EM GDP is currently about 4% below its pre-pandemic path; the hit has been uneven with gaps of 7% or greater in a number of EM countries, mostly in South Asia and Latin America. Despite the pickup in vaccinations we generally see the weak links continuing to deliver sub-par outcomes. EM will enter an electoral cycle from 2022 and the political economy of permanent scarring will likely affect politics and policies materially, especially in Latin America. The consequences of the pandemic are likely to be long-lasting, lowering potential growth. EM potential was trending lower even before the pandemic and we estimate a further 0.5%-pts hit from the pandemic outside of China.

This podcast was recorded on November 4, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3900323-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3907254-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Bruce Kasman is joined by Haibin Zhu, Grace Ng, and Joe Lupton to discuss our forecast that global growth is rotating toward Asia as we move toward year-end. There are three forces driving this view: A China policy turn, a relaxation of regional supply chain constraints, and a fading of Delta wave drags amid rising vaccination rates. China has been the biggest disappointment recently and uncertainty about policy preferences alongside October survey disappointments keeps risks skewed to the downside. The news is more upbeat elsewhere in the region where mobility has moved higher and the October PMIs moved higher led by the ASEAN countries.

This podcast was recorded on November 3, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

How transitory the drags are holding back 3Q global GDP and lifting inflation are the central question for the outlook. For now, we see growth picking up this quarter, led by Asia and the US. Next week’s PMIs and US payrolls will be keenly watched. The ECB and BoC bookend the views on the risks around this debate, with the ECB holding firmly to it transitory view and the BoC tempering their commitment. Next week is expected to see the BoE hike under pressure and the Fed to begin tapering, with particular attention given to guidance on inflation and its rate liftoff.

Speakers

Joseph Lupton

Michael Hanson

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Bruce Kasman is joined by Jose Cerveira, Greg Fuzesi, Joe Lupton, and David Mackie to discuss the recent rise of COVID cases across Europe. The source of this new wave appears concentrated in young unvaccinated populations but a fading of vaccine effectiveness, the onset of colder weather, and a relaxation of restrictions all contribute to the latest outbreak. The risk of a significant shift toward policy restrictions is modest as the latest wave is generating significantly lower hospitalizations. But our European mobility metrics have been sliding in recent weeks, reinforcing downside growth risks already evident in the recent softening in surveys. Europe’s downshift stands in sharp contrast to the US and Asia (ex. China) where mobility and high-frequency indicators look to be pointing positive. This points to a potential rotation in global growth this quarter that might be reinforced with the recent moves by the US to increase boosters and extend vaccination to children.

This podcast was recorded on October 27, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

A key question for the global outlook is whether the disappointment in 3Q global growth, now tracking 3.4%ar following a weak China report and downside revisions for the US next week, will reverse in 4Q. The October flash DM PMIs suggest improving momentum into the current quarter, but also intensifying supply constraints. EM central banks continue to tighten as inflation accelerates, and we now see the BoE hiking this year.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Michael Hanson

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.