Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton and Dan Weitzenfeld to discuss the release of the J.P. Morgan Policy Rate Forecast Revision Index (FRIP). The FRIs draw on J.P. Morgan’s long history of forecasting macroeconomic variables for 30 countries to generate a simple index for tracking week-to-week revisions. The policy rate FRI adds to a suite of FRIs already being produced for GDP, inflation, and core inflation. We highlight what the FRIP tells us about the accuracy and efficiency (within and across countries) of J.P. Morgan policy rate forecasts and its implication for our recent forecast revision for the US FOMC to hike twice next year.

 

This podcast was recorded on November 18, 2021.

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