Global Data Pod

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Assessing the rising wave of COVID cases in Europe


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Bruce Kasman is joined by Jose Cerveira, Greg Fuzesi, Joe Lupton, and David Mackie to discuss the recent rise of COVID cases across Europe. The source of this new wave appears concentrated in young unvaccinated populations but a fading of vaccine effectiveness, the onset of colder weather, and a relaxation of restrictions all contribute to the latest outbreak. The risk of a significant shift toward policy restrictions is modest as the latest wave is generating significantly lower hospitalizations. But our European mobility metrics have been sliding in recent weeks, reinforcing downside growth risks already evident in the recent softening in surveys. Europe’s downshift stands in sharp contrast to the US and Asia (ex. China) where mobility and high-frequency indicators look to be pointing positive. This points to a potential rotation in global growth this quarter that might be reinforced with the recent moves by the US to increase boosters and extend vaccination to children.
This podcast was recorded on October 27, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
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Global Data PodBy J.P. Morgan Global Research

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