Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton, Jahangir Aziz, and Malcolm Barr to discuss our recently published “2022 Global Economic Outlook: This Time IS Different” amid growing concern around the Omicron variant. Omicron emerges with an already significant rise in global cases and points to a winter wave of infections which is likely to exceed last quarter’s Delta wave. The drag on growth from this wave may prove material but we maintain two views critical to the outlook. The first is that the drag is transitory as greater rate of infection is not accompanied by a significant deterioration in the effectiveness of vaccines in limiting hospitalizations and deaths. The second is that the wave is concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere where we anticipate US and Euro area growth to slow towards a 2%ar in 1Q22.

If we are right, Asia will be less affected as we turn into the new year and provide a growth boost – from rising demand and moderating supply constraints -- that allows the global economy to sustain above-potential performance in 1H22. This dynamic is consistent with our medium-term view that an underlying reflationary tilt is underway which should eliminate global slack next year and see core inflation settle roughly 0.5%-pts above pre-pandemic levels.

This podcast was recorded on November 29, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3930876-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.