A strong two quarters of growth comes with geo-divergence and some mixed signals on momentum, raising questions not about the strong past but about the future. A global rotation is projected, with the US downshifting from a boomy pace and growth in the rest of the world strengthening. Against this backdrop, both headline and underlying inflation are firming.
 
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist
Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research
 
This podcast was recorded on 16 October 2026. 
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

A strong two quarters of growth comes with geo-divergence and some mixed signals on momentum, raising questions not about the strong past but about the future. A global rotation is projected, with the US downshifting from a boomy pace and growth in the rest of the world strengthening. Against this backdrop, both headline and underlying inflation are firming. Speakers: Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research This podcast was recorded on 16 October 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

A strong two quarters of growth comes with geo-divergence and some mixed signals on momentum, raising questions not about the strong past but about the future. A global rotation is projected, with the US downshifting from a boomy pace and growth in the rest of the world strengthening. Against this backdrop, both headline and underlying inflation are firming.
&nbsp;
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist
Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research
&nbsp;
This podcast was recorded on 16 October 2026.&nbsp;
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Knowing where you are

Despite the mixed messages from the sweep of global data on employment and spending, the PMIs are booming. The breadth of the rise across sectors and countries, along with a surge in the employment PMI, keeps us comfortable with our call for a cyclical lift that is joined by firming labor markets. For now, central banks remain in the New Testament and that’s a good thing.
 
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist
Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research
 
This podcast was recorded on 8 October 2026. 
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Despite the mixed messages from the sweep of global data on employment and spending, the PMIs are booming. The breadth of the rise across sectors and countries, along with a surge in the employment PMI, keeps us comfortable with our call for a cyclical lift that is joined by firming labor markets. For now, central banks remain in the New Testament and that’s a good thing. Speakers: Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research This podcast was recorded on 8 October 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Despite the mixed messages from the sweep of global data on employment and spending, the PMIs are booming. The breadth of the rise across sectors and countries, along with a surge in the employment PMI, keeps us comfortable with our call for a cyclical lift that is joined by firming labor markets. For now, central banks remain in the New Testament and that’s a good thing.
&nbsp;
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist
Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research
&nbsp;
This podcast was recorded on 8 October 2026.&nbsp;
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Stand by your PMIs

A week of conflicting signals leaves us with more questions. We stand by our PMIs, which point to broad-based accelerating global strength at the start of 4Q. We also are impressed by the extra dose of US income, which was revised up alongside a stronger 2Q GDP outturn. However, the disappointing September payrolls number challenges a key feature of our outlook: the need for jobs to provide more support in extending the expansion. If nothing else, the tension in the data pushes off the need for immediate October rate hikes.
 
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist
Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research
 
This podcast was recorded on 2 October 2026. 
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

A week of conflicting signals leaves us with more questions. We stand by our PMIs, which point to broad-based accelerating global strength at the start of 4Q. We also are impressed by the extra dose of US income, which was revised up alongside a stronger 2Q GDP outturn. However, the disappointing September payrolls number challenges a key feature of our outlook: the need for jobs to provide more support in extending the expansion. If nothing else, the tension in the data pushes off the need for immediate October rate hikes. Speakers: Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research This podcast was recorded on 2 October 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

A week of conflicting signals leaves us with more questions. We stand by our PMIs, which point to broad-based accelerating global strength at the start of 4Q. We also are impressed by the extra dose of US income, which was revised up alongside a stronger 2Q GDP outturn. However, the disappointing September payrolls number challenges a key feature of our outlook: the need for jobs to provide more support in extending the expansion. If nothing else, the tension in the data pushes off the need for immediate October rate hikes.
&nbsp;
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist
Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research
&nbsp;
This podcast was recorded on 2 October 2026.&nbsp;
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Now what?

The news continues to point to broad and strong global growth momentum. It is thus no surprise that markets and central banks are increasingly expecting a higher path of rates. What is not expected is a strong growth dynamic that forces central banks to deliver a rate path that weakens growth, an outcome we believe is reasonable with labor markets poised to tighten.  
 
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist
Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research
 
This podcast was recorded on 25 September 2026. 
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

The news continues to point to broad and strong global growth momentum. It is thus no surprise that markets and central banks are increasingly expecting a higher path of rates. What is not expected is a strong growth dynamic that forces central banks to deliver a rate path that weakens growth, an outcome we believe is reasonable with labor markets poised to tighten. Speakers: Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research This podcast was recorded on 25 September 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

The news continues to point to broad and strong global growth momentum. It is thus no surprise that markets and central banks are increasingly expecting&nbsp;a higher path of rates. What is not expected is a strong growth dynamic that forces central banks to deliver a rate path that weakens growth, an outcome we believe is reasonable with labor markets poised to tighten. &nbsp;
&nbsp;
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist
Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research
&nbsp;
This podcast was recorded on 25 September 2026.&nbsp;
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Yes Virginia, there is a tradeoff between growth and inflation

Nora Szentivanyi and David Mackie discuss their recent research on EM vulnerabilities to the Delta variant and its potential to delay reopening and recovery in EM economies.
 
This podcast was recorded on July 9, 2021. 
This communication is provided for information purposes only.  
Institutional clients can view the related report at <a href='https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3795931-0'>EM vulnerabilities to the Delta variant</a> (Szentivanyi, Mackie – 8 July 2021); <a href='https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3785387-0'>The race between vaccinations and variants</a> (Mackie – 25 June 2021); <a href='https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3773674-0'>COVID-19 vaccination thresholds and the 'new normal'</a> (Mackie – 14 June 2021); <a href='https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3772858-0'>Global vulnerabilities to the COVID-19 variant B.1.617.2</a>   (Mackie – 11 June 2021);  for more information; please visit <a href='http://www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures'>www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures</a> for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi and David Mackie discuss their recent research on EM vulnerabilities to the Delta variant and its potential to delay reopening and recovery in EM economies. This podcast was recorded on July 9, 2021. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at EM vulnerabilities to the Delta variant (Szentivanyi, Mackie – 8 July 2021); The race between vaccinations and variants (Mackie – 25 June 2021); COVID-19 vaccination thresholds and the 'new normal' (Mackie – 14 June 2021); Global vulnerabilities to the COVID-19 variant B.1.617.2 (Mackie – 11 June 2021); for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi and David Mackie discuss their recent research on EM vulnerabilities to the Delta variant and its potential to delay reopening and recovery in EM economies.
&nbsp;
This podcast was recorded on July 9, 2021. 
This communication is provided for information purposes only. &nbsp;
Institutional clients can view the related report at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3795931-0" rel="noopener noreferrer">EM vulnerabilities to the Delta variant</a> (Szentivanyi, Mackie – 8 July 2021);&nbsp;<a href="https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3785387-0" rel="noopener noreferrer">The race between vaccinations and variants</a> (Mackie – 25 June 2021);&nbsp;<a href="https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3773674-0" rel="noopener noreferrer">COVID-19 vaccination thresholds and the 'new normal'</a> (Mackie – 14 June 2021);&nbsp;<a href="https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3772858-0" rel="noopener noreferrer">Global vulnerabilities to the COVID-19 variant B.1.617.2</a> &nbsp; (Mackie – 11 June 2021);&nbsp;&nbsp;for more information; please visit <a href="http://www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures" rel="noopener noreferrer">www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures</a> for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod: EM vulnerabilities to the Delta variant

<ul><li>On top of humanitarian and economic damage, COVID-19 has challenged to economic data analysis</li>
<li>In particular, existing core CPI metrics may not be the best gauge of underlying inflation given the many supply and demand shocks involved in this crisis</li>
<li>We use the methodology of Shapiro (2020) to decompose core EX0 inflation…</li>
<li>…and we use part of this decomposition to propose a new Core-COVID IPCA</li>
</ul>
The objective of this metric is to avoid confusing temporary fluctuations with a more structural inflationary process. In our view, using this new core along with other measures would be useful to understand inflation dynamics.
 
This podcast was recorded on July 7, 2021. 
This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at <a href='https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3792601-0.pdf'>https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3792601-0.pdf</a> for more information; please visit <a href='http://www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures'>www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures</a> for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

On top of humanitarian and economic damage, COVID-19 has challenged to economic data analysis In particular, existing core CPI metrics may not be the best gauge of underlying inflation given the many supply and demand shocks involved in this crisis We use the methodology of Shapiro (2020) to decompose core EX0 inflation… …and we use part of this decomposition to propose a new Core-COVID IPCA The objective of this metric is to avoid confusing temporary fluctuations with a more structural inflationary process. In our view, using this new core along with other measures would be useful to understand inflation dynamics. This podcast was recorded on July 7, 2021. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3792601-0.pdf for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

<ul><li>On top of humanitarian and economic damage, COVID-19 has challenged to economic data analysis</li>
<li>In particular, existing core CPI metrics may not be the best gauge of underlying inflation given the many supply and demand shocks involved in this crisis</li>
<li>We use the methodology of Shapiro (2020) to decompose core EX0 inflation…</li>
<li>…and we use part of this decomposition to propose a new Core-COVID IPCA</li>
</ul>
The objective of this metric is to avoid confusing temporary fluctuations with a more structural inflationary process. In our view, using this new core along with other measures would be useful to understand inflation dynamics.
&nbsp;
This podcast was recorded on July 7, 2021. 
This communication is provided for information purposes only. &nbsp;Institutional clients can view the related report at <a href="https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3792601-0.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3792601-0.pdf</a> for more information; please visit <a href="http://www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures" rel="noopener noreferrer">www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures</a> for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod LATAM: A COVID-core metric for Brazil

Malcolm Barr (Head of Western European Economics) is joined by Alan Monks and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss recent inflation developments and their forecasts for the next 12 months.
 
This podcast was recorded on July 6, 2021. 
This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients please visit <a href='http://www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures'>www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures</a> for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Malcolm Barr (Head of Western European Economics) is joined by Alan Monks and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss recent inflation developments and their forecasts for the next 12 months. This podcast was recorded on July 6, 2021. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Malcolm Barr (Head of Western European Economics) is joined by Alan Monks and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss recent inflation developments and their forecasts for the next 12 months.
&nbsp;
This podcast was recorded on July 6, 2021. 
This communication is provided for information purposes only. &nbsp;Institutional clients please visit <a href="http://www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures" rel="noopener noreferrer">www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures</a> for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod EMEA: The bump in Western European inflation and beyond

Economists from J.P. Morgan Global Research offer their analysis on the economic data, macro trends and monetary and fiscal policy impacting the world today.

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