Bruce Kasman is joined by Nora Szentivanyi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to introduce our monthly Global Inflation Monitor which details CPI performance through February.  While pressures from energy price shocks related to the Russia invasion were an important source of the 0.6%m/m February CPI increase, food and core price pressures have been building broadly (with the notable exception of China). 1Q22 Global core inflation ex. Turkey and China is tracking at its fastest pace of increase in over thirty years (5.6%ar). Inflation pressures are prompting central banks to tighten policy, but the squeeze in household purchasing power associated with this spike poses a threat to global growth. While we have already shaved 2.5% off our 2022 Euro area GDP forecast there is risk of a much sharper drop if the conflict pushes energy prices substantially higher. A number of low-income EM economies face a large terms-of-trade loss and building domestic political unrest due to surging food prices inflation. An important offset to this squeeze is materializing as governments use fiscal supports to cushion income losses. Outside the US, we look for at least 0.5%-of GDP in additional fiscal support this year. 

 

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist and Head of Global Economic Research

Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Economist

Raphael Brun-Aguerre, Senior Economist

 

This podcast was recorded on March 24, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4041230-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.