Bruce Kasman is joined by Michael Feroli, Joe Lupton and Allan Monks to discuss the reaction functions of the US Fed and UK BoE. We moved forward our forecast for the first BoE rate hike to November this week as the BoE appears more concerned about the risk of persistent inflation against a backdrop of tightening labor markets and rising inflation breakevens. Faced with a similar set of concerns the Fed is set to remain patient in the coming months. This contrast reflects both a different assessment of risk and a Fed reaction function more focused on labor market healing. The Fed’s patience will likely prove limited if inflation doesn’t moderate significantly during 1H22. And markets seem complacent about the medium-term consequences of Fed that is likely to start its normalization well behind the curve.

 

This podcast was recorded on October 20, 2021.

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