Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news equity markets are under severe pressure today, in 'extreme fear' mode. And that is despite the current economic activity signals being relatively sanguine.

First in the US, the widely watched ISM service sector PMI bounced back to expansion in July with a better reading than was expected. The new order component expanded. The companion S&P/Markit services PMI told a similar story featuring rising output.

The US Fed's Loan Officers Survey for July noted that while credit standards were little-changed for consumers, demand was weaker especially for real estate loans. For businesses, banks tightened credit standards overall but demand for loans was holding positive and little-changed. This survey is not picking up any special sign of credit stress, for either borrowers or banks.

The Caixin services PMI suggests the Chinese service sector picked up the pace of its tepid expansion, coming in better than expected and better than the official measure.

In Japan it was the same. Japan's service economy returned to growth during July, following the slight dip recorded in June. Gains in both total activity and new business were solid amid improved customer numbers and demand conditions

In India, business confidence rose in their services sector and it maintained its rapid expansion. But inflation pressures from this high demand are now showing through and a warning flag that they may not be able to keep up the pace.

And in other big economies, like Brazil, their service sectors are also expanding at a positive clip. There are others like this, but you get the picture.

But in Australia, their services sector is easing back, no longer expanding. New order levels fell. And of course it will be a sharp contraction in New Zealand when we get the July services PMIs.

Later this afternoon the RBA will release the results of its monetary policy meeting today. A rate hike, talked about until recently, seems to be off the table now. A cut also seems unlikely as well. In fact markets aren't actually pricing in a rate cut there until November. That is in contrast to New Zealand where a full -25 bps cut is priced in for next week's RBNZ MPS - and another three cuts by the end of this year. That is a sharp repricing by markets in just one day.

The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 3.77% and down -2 bps from yesterday. 

Wall Street has started its week with the S&P500 down -3.2%. Overnight European markets were down about -1.8%, bookended by London's -2.0% drop and Paris' -1.4% fall. Yesterday Tokyo fell and amazing -12.4%. Hong Kong was down -1.5%, Shanghai down the same but Singapore fell -4.1%. The ASX200 fell its own very sharp -3.7% and its worst day since the pandemic, but the NZX50 got away relatively lightly with 'only' a -1.5% retreat in Monday trade.

We do need to remember it is 'silly season' in most markets with relatively light summer trading. Changes get magnified when volumes are light and many people are 'at the beach'. However, the sharp rise in fear has drawn in unusually heavy trading volumes now.

The price of gold will start today down -US$39 from yesterday at US$2404/oz.

Oil prices are -US$1 lower at just over US$72.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just under US$76.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar starts today down -10 bps from this time yesterday at just on 59.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -80 bps at 54.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 68 and down -60 bps. A sharply rising Yen had influence on this too.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$54,584 and down another extreme -6.2% from where we left it yesterday. That is a -US$3,600 drop in a day. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been ultra-extreme, at +/- 10.4%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.