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Dollar firms as May rate hike seen more certain after another healthy gain in US jobs. Yet, overall reaction has been muted amid thin trading during long Easter weekend. But volatility set to return as US CPI report due this week, plus the BoC decision.

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Nonfarm payrolls report coming up, early indicators flash mixed signals. Most markets will remain closed today, so FX is the main game in town. Wall Street recovers after another round of soft data cements rate-cut bets.

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Next week starts on a quiet note as Monday is Easter Monday for most economies on our radar. That said, the calendar becomes heavier as the days pass by, with the spotlight probably falling on the US CPI numbers for March, the minutes from the latest FOMC gathering, and the BoC decision. The US data will constitute another piece of information in the riddle of whether the Fed should hit the hike button one last time in May, while the BoC decision may reveal whether Canadian officials will be the first ones to hit the cut button.

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ISM non-manufacturing PMI disappoints, adding to downturn. Dollar gains despite Treasury yields extending their slide. Gold maintains ‘safe haven of choice’ status.

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US job openings slide to the lowest since May 2021. Wall Street slides as data revives recession fears. Gold rallies above $2000 as Fed pivot bets intensify. New Zealand dollar rallies as RBNZ hikes by 50bps.

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Contraction in US manufacturing emboldens bets for Fed cuts. Dollar slides, stock markets rally with boost from energy shares. RBA hits ‘stop’ button on rates, RBNZ decision coming up next.

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Surprise production cut from OPEC propels oil prices higher. Dollar benefits as resurfacing inflation concerns fuel Fed bets. Stocks close first quarter in euphoric mood, riding liquidity wave.

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Equities to end week and quarter in buoyant mood as tech-led rebound gathers pace. Fed speakers keep rate hike door wide open, dollar firms but still down in Q1. Tokyo CPI beat unable to halt yen’s slide, US and Eurozone inflation coming up next.

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With the banking turmoil receding, market participants will turn their attention back to economic releases. The spotlight will fall on the US employment report, where another strong reading could temper speculation that the Fed will start cutting rates soon, helping the wounded dollar to recover. Meanwhile in Australia and New Zealand, central banks are expected to take different paths.

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Dollar trades mixed against the other majors. PCE numbers and Fed speakers could reshape Fed bets. Germany’s CPI data due out a day ahead of Eurozone’s inflation numbers. Wall Street indices add more than 1% worth of gains each.

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