Global Security Briefing

This episode traces the roots of growing tensions between China and the US over Taiwan, and assesses the danger of war between the two superpowers over the island's fate.

Veerle Nouwens, RUSI Senior Research Fellow in the security of the Indo-Pacific, and Bonnie Glaser, Director of the Asia Programme at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, discuss with Dr Neil Melvin, Director, International Security Studies at RUSI, the origins of the dispute between the US and China over Taiwan, the current state of relations, and the prospects of a conflict developing between Washington and Beijing.

Originally published 19 August 2022.

Reflections from Taipei offer a different perspective on recent cross-Strait tensions.

In this episode, Veerle speaks with activist Brian Hioe, a founder of the New Bloom Magazine – an online magazine covering activism and youth politics in Taiwan and the Asia-Pacific – about the Taiwanese reaction to US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit and China's subsequent live-fire military drills.

While the latter marked an escalation in tensions and tactics, Taiwanese officials and their public have declined to be alarmed. Meanwhile, Chinese economic sanctions have also not inflicted serious harm. Rather than intimidating Taipei, Beijing's behaviour may have inadvertent and self-defeating repercussions in upcoming Taiwanese local elections and the political scene. Tune in to find out what lies ahead in Taiwanese domestic politics, military reforms, and the island's foreign relationships.

This episode considers where Russia's war against Ukraine stands nearly five months after it began, as the conflict enters a potentially pivotal moment with Ukraine planning to mount a counteroffensive to reclaim lost territory.

Edward Arnold, our Research Fellow in European Security, and Dr Neil Melvin, RUSI International Security Studies Director, explore Russia's political aims, how Ukraine is planning to move onto the offensive in key areas with increased supplies of NATO military equipment, and whether the war risks becoming a far more protracted conflict.

Originally published on 30 June 2022.

As the war in Ukraine rages on, Japan debates its next security steps.

Veerle is joined by Tetsuo Kotani, Professor at Meikai University and Senior Fellow at the Japan Institute of International Affairs. They explore the level of Japanese domestic support for sanctions policy on Russia, and the ongoing Sino-Russian military activities at sea around Japan and in Japan's airspace. They also ask whether the ongoing situation in Ukraine is impacting Japan's view of its national security and defence strategy, and what Japan's expected outcomes are from the NATO summit in Madrid.

This episode considers the agenda for the NATO Madrid Summit as the organisation faces an unprecedented challenge in responding to the war against Ukraine and the wider threats that Russia, as well as China, present to the Alliance.

In this episode, Dr Thierry Tardy, Director of the Research Division at the NATO Defence College, discusses with Dr Neil Melvin, Director, RUSI International Security Studies, what is on the agenda for the NATO Madrid Summit, how the Alliance is seeking to adapt, what will be in the Alliance's new Strategic Concept, and how NATO is likely to develop in the future as regional and global geopolitical competition intensifies.

This episode examines the evolving Belarus–Russia defence and security relationship at a time when Minsk has become closely intertwined with Russia's war against Ukraine, and as Aleksandr Lukashenko, Belarus' authoritarian president, is increasingly reliant on political support from Russia to remain in power.

RUSI's Emily Ferris and Dr Akady Moshes, Programme Director for the EU Eastern Neighbourhood and Russia research programme at the Finnish Institute for International Affairs, discuss with Dr Neil Melvin, RUSI's Director for International Security Studies, the evolving security relationship between Belarus and Russia and the extent to which Belarus has lost its autonomy and has become politically and militarily integrated with Russia

This episode examines how the South Caucasus states of Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan are being affected by Russia's war against Ukraine. The crisis comes at a time when the region is already experiencing significant changes as a result of the second Karabakh war and growing external competition for influence from Russia, Turkey, Iran and China. It also occurs as the transatlantic community considers its future approach to Black Sea security.

Natia Seskuria, Director of the Regional Institute of Security Studies in Tbilisi and RUSI Associate Fellow, and Richard Giragosian, Director of the Regional Studies Centre in Yerevan, discuss with Dr Neil Melvin, Director, RUSI International Security Studies, the implications for the wider Black Sea security space, and trace developments in the region's protracted conflicts.

Originally published on 25 May 2022.

A post-Duterte presidency offers opportunities for policy shifts.

In this episode of Bridging the Oceans, Veerle is joined by Julio S Amador III, Founder and CEO of Amador Research Services. Together, they discuss the recent elections in the Philippines, which saw Marcos Jr elected as the new president of the country. Following President Duterte, whose relations with Beijing grew ever closer, what shape will Philippine foreign policy towards the US and China take? And what national defence and security policies are likely to emerge under a new Marcos administration? Finally, to what extent does the ongoing war in Ukraine impact Manila's foreign and domestic policies?

This episode examines the evolving approach of the UK to security and defence in the Arctic, as the region undergoes significant shifts due to climate change, Russia's increasingly aggressive foreign policy and military modernisation, and non-Arctic states – notably China – taking an increasing interest in the region's security.

Dr Duncan Depledge from the International Relations, Politics and History department of Loughborough University and Dr Caroline Kennedy-Pipe, Professor of War Studies at Loughborough, discuss with Dr Neil Melvin, Director, International Security Studies at RUSI, how the UK has sought to upgrade its policies towards the Arctic as a 'near Arctic state', and how it has begun to rebuild its security and defence engagement with Arctic partner countries as a result of Russia's growing strength in the region.

Originally published 11 May 2022.

France remains fully committed to its new Indo-Pacific Strategy, but implementation will be crucial.

In this episode, Veerle is joined by Dr Antoine Bondaz, Director of the Korea and Taiwan Programmes at the Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique (FRS). Together, they discuss domestic and foreign policy pressures on France's new strategy, and what Indo-Pacific-related achievements have emerged from its presidency of the EU Council. They explore how France's relationships in the Indo-Pacific are evolving – with China, Taiwan, India, Japan and Australia – and what Europe must do to make its engagement in the region a success, despite pressures closer to home.