A presentation titled Pregnant Possibilities was given by Mark Tensmeyer, Joseph Stanford, Amanda Hendrix-Komoto, John Kidd, & myself (Rick Bennett.) This was similar to a presentation at Sunstone & John Whitmer Historical Association in August, September, & October 2025. We tackled the question on how many children Joseph Smith should have had with his plural wives. (It is a lot less than you think!) Mark gave a history, Joseph outlined the science behind calculating pregnancy, Rick did the calculations on expected number of children & probability Joseph Smith had no children from his plural wives. John ran 1,000,000 simulations of the scenario to randomize women’s cycles and coitus, and Amanda discussed birth control & abortion in the 19th century. It’s a fascinating presentation that we hope to publish soon. Check out our presentation from August & October. (You may want to view on Youtube to see the slides used in the presentations.)
https://youtu.be/gL0P5F5FZcc
Don’t miss our other conversations about Joseph Smith’s polygamy: https://gospeltangents.com/lds_theology/polygamy/
Pregnant Possibilities
The polygamous unions of Joseph Smith in Nauvoo present historians with a persistent and colorful mystery: the apparent lack of known children fathered by Smith with any of his wives other than Emma. Clearly, Joseph Smith was fertile, having fathered nine children with Emma. This question regarding the lack of progeny was the central focus of the 2025 Sunstone Symposium session, “Pregnant Possibilities: Sexuality and Early Mormon Polygamy,” which involved a multidisciplinary approach combining historical research, statistical modeling, and reproductive science.
The presentation drew on the expertise of historian Mark Tensmeyer, JD (focusing on historical claims and Joseph Smith’s movements), Dr. Amanda Hendrix-Komoto (discussing abortion and birth control history), Dr. Joseph Stanford (an MD specializing in fertility and the mechanics of pregnancy), Rick Bennett (a biostatistician who hosted the session and developed the mathematical models), and Dr John Kidd (who ran 1,000,000 simulations.)
Does Marriage Equal Sex?
The puzzle of the missing children was vividly encapsulated by Joseph Smith III, who found it “incomprehensible” that his “father should have had such a crew of lusty young women as wives, and not one of them had a baby by him. Not one, not a single baby”.
The presentation emphasized that while there are no identified or verified children from these plural unions, historians cannot definitively state that there were no children. Factors such as high infant mortality, stillbirth, or children who grew up under different names could account for unknown progeny.
Mark Tensmeyer examined the foundational question: Does the fact that Joseph Smith married these women mean that he was sexually active with them?. While there is direct testimony of consummation for some wives (such as Emily Partridge and Melissa Lott), for the majority, evidence is absent or scarce.
Arguments supporting consummation included the 19th-century societal norm where a marriage was often not considered complete if unconsummated. Conversely, arguments suggesting limited or no consummation centered on:
To address the historical ambiguity, the researchers focused on 33 “consensus wives”—those agreed upon by prominent historians—and developed various models based on different assumptions regarding sexual frequency.
Modeling the Probability of Conception
The statistical analysis required defining key reproductive terms. Fecundity refers to the biological capacity to conceive, while fecundability is the daily probability of pregnancy in a given menstrual cycle.
Dr. Stanford explained that calculating the probability of conception is complex, as the probability is highest in the couple of days prior to ovulation. The models used data from historical natural family planning users to estimate the day-specific probabilities of pregnancy, applying these estimates across the various historical interpretations of Joseph Smith’s sexual activity.
Biostatistician Rick Bennett developed four main models based on the estimated frequency of intercourse, accounting for Joseph Smith’s busy schedule, travel, and ongoing sexual relationship with Emma1:
Model Name
Core Assumption
Key Groups Excluded
Expected Pregnancies (Approx.)
Probability of Zero Children (Approx.)
Statistical Conclusion
Restricted Volume
Highly restricted interpretation; most marriages unconsummated.
Teen brides, polyandrous wives, older/pregnant wives.
0.713
41%
Not unusual, about 50-50
Low Volume
Assumes all non-special classes (e.g., non-polyandrous, non-teen) were consummated, but with limited frequency.
Younger wives (14 and under), wives with legal husbands, older/pregnant wives.
1.4714
22%
Not unusual (Compared to rolling doubles in Monopoly)
Medium/ Consensus Volume
Assumes all consensus wives were consummated, often only 1-2 times near the ceremony, with exceptions for women like Emily Partridge.
Older/pregnant wives.
2.3614
9%
Not unusual (Still possible by chance)
High Volume
Maximizes possible sexual encounters with all consensus and some disputed wives (reflecting a more critical view).
None (except likely infertile/pregnant)
7.7514
0.03%
Unusual (Unlikely to happen by chance)
The conclusions were stark: the Restricted, Low, and Consensus models show that the probability of zero pregnancies is not unusual. The High-Volume model suggests that if intercourse occurred that frequently, zero children would be “very unlikely to happen by chance,” necessitating an explanation through contraception or abortion.
A separate, high-volume model focusing on Fanny Alger alone (due to the length and nature of the relationship) suggested an expected 3.25 children, with a probability of zero children at about 0.03%, meaning it would be unlikely that Fanny should not have had a child in that model.
19th-Century Reproductive Agency and Intervention
Historian Amanda Hendrix-Komoto provided context on 19th-century sexuality, noting that non-academic conversations often overlook the long history of birth control and abortion. She highlighted that before the 20th century, people defined pregnancy differently:
There is limited direct evidence of early Mormon practices due to the secrecy surrounding polygamy. However, Heber C. Kimball, in an 1857 speech, acknowledged that he knew many women who used doctors to “kill the children,” stating that this practice was “just as common as it is for wheat to grow”. Furthermore, Brigham Young explicitly linked the spirit entering the body to the mother “feels life come into her infant” (quickening).
These findings suggest that early Mormon women would have encountered ideas about abortion and birth control before converting to the Church. Importantly, women possessed agency; they did not need external figures like Dr. J.C. Bennett to control their reproduction, as midwives and other doctors knew how to induce abortions.
In summary, the statistical data supports the conclusion that the lack of identified children is statistically expected if Joseph Smith’s sexual engagement with his plural wives was limited. However, if relations were more frequent, the historical context confirms that 19th-century women had the knowledge and means to utilize contraception or early abortifacients to prevent births.
Don’t miss our discussion of Dr Ugo Perego’s DNA test results on possible children of Joseph Smith.
What are your thoughts about the presentation?
Don’t miss our other conversations about Joseph Smith’s polygamy: https://gospeltangents.com/lds_theology/polygamy/
