Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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Grain Markets Fall Sharply 📉
The grain markets saw a significant decline on Monday, with the May25 corn contract losing 8 cents, soybean futures dropping by 10 cents, and wheat futures falling 10-12 cents per bushel. The selloff is likely linked to a shift in Argentina's weather, as key corn and soybean areas saw beneficial rainfall, with more forecasted across the country. 🌽🌧️

China's Pork Consumption Stalls 🐖
China's pork consumption has slowed due to oversupply and economic struggles, which has led to a surplus and suppressed prices. The government is considering overseeing hog slaughter and regulating production capacity, which could impact global soybean prices, as China is the largest importer of soybeans for livestock feed. 🐷📉

Brazil's Soybean Forecast Lowered 🌾
AgRural reduced its forecast for Brazil's soybean crop to 168.2mmt, down from 171mmt due to dry conditions in the southern region. While soybean harvest progress is on track, Brazil's second corn crop planting remains behind last year's pace, with only 64% planted as of last Thursday. 🇧🇷🌱

Tariffs on Canada and Mexico to Proceed 🇲🇽🇨🇦
President Trump confirmed that 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports will move forward, despite some uncertainty surrounding the details. The tariffs are aimed at securing stronger borders, and Trump has also warned of additional tariffs on steel and aluminum in March. ⚒️💵

Mexico Considers Tariffs on China 🇲🇽🇨🇳
Mexico is weighing the possibility of implementing tariffs on China while working to avoid the 25% tariff threat from the US. This comes amid ongoing negotiations on stronger action against migrants and fentanyl, which could trigger tariffs in March. 💣🔻

US Corn Shipments Decline 📉
US corn shipments declined last week, with only 1.1mmt (45mil bushels) inspected for export, down 30% from the previous week. Soybean shipments showed a slight increase, but wheat shipments were also lower than expected, down 22% from last year. 🚜📦

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Corn Futures Correct Lower 📉
CME Group corn futures saw a correction lower after reaching $5.04 last week, trading below $4.90 overnight. The strong rally may have made a correction overdue. Forecasts of rainfall in Argentina's corn country and discussions of increased US corn acreage have added selling pressure ahead of USDA's Ag Outlook Forum data later this week. 🌽🌧️

Brazil Soybean Harvest Progressing 🌱
Brazil's soybean harvest continues to mirror last year's pace, with 37.6% of the crop harvested compared to 38% last year. Conab forecasts Brazil's crop at 166 MMT, while the USDA estimates 169 MMT. Dry conditions are expected in some regions over the next two weeks, though rainfall in Argentina may ease row crop weakness. 🇧🇷🌾

Funds Increase Net-Long Position 💼
CFTC data shows "The Funds" increased their net-long position in corn and wheat markets last week. Large money managers bought 33k corn contracts, bringing the net long to 360k contracts—the second largest since April 2022. Wheat contracts also saw increased buying, while soybean contracts experienced net selling. 💰📊

US Corn Export Sales Decline 🌍
US corn export sales dropped last week to 1.5mmt (67mil bushels), down 12% from the previous week. However, sales remain strong, with Mexico being the largest buyer. Soybean sales also saw a decline, while wheat sales remained robust, rising 31% from the prior 4-week average. 🚜🌽

Stock Market Tumbles 📉
The stock market fell sharply on Friday, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 down by 1.7%, and the Nasdaq declining by 2.2%. The losses came amid concerns of slowing economic growth, persistent inflation, and geopolitical tensions. Disappointing economic data and consumer inflation expectations fueled the declines. 📊💥

Cattle on Feed Report Neutral to Slightly Bullish 🐄
The February 1st Cattle on Feed report showed 11.7 million head on feed, a slight decrease from pre-report estimates and 1% lower than last year. January placements were lower than expected, which may be viewed as slightly bullish by the market. The report suggests tighter cattle numbers for the coming months. 🐄📉

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Potential US-China Trade Deal 🌐
Despite rising tensions, President Trump hinted at the possibility of a new trade deal with China. This follows his announcement of a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, which prompted China to retaliate with tariffs on U.S. coal, LNG, oil, machinery, and vehicles. Although China failed to meet its Phase One commitments, Trump remains optimistic about renegotiating terms. 🤝📉

Corn Futures Near $5 💰
The Mar25 corn contract hovers near the $5 mark as option expiration approaches. A large amount of open interest at this strike price may influence market behavior today. Additionally, the Mar25-May25 spread reached record-wide levels, hinting at volatility ahead. 🌽💥

Concerns Over Canadian Tariffs and Fertilizer Costs 💸
Nutrien warns that President Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on Canadian imports could raise U.S. farmers' fertilizer costs, particularly for potash, which is mostly sourced from Canada. The price increase could exceed $100 per ton, affecting farmers after the spring planting season. 🌱⚠️

USDA Releases Frozen Funds 💵
The USDA is releasing $20 million in funds for approved contracts under programs like the Environmental Quality Incentive Program and Conservation Stewardship Program. This follows a review prompted by President Trump's executive order freezing funding. More funds are expected to be released soon. 💼🔓

Gold Prices Surge to Record High 🏆
Gold prices reached a new high of $2,954.69 per ounce, driven by fears of a global trade war amid President Trump's tariff plans. Some analysts predict gold could exceed $3,000, though a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal might limit further price increases. 🛑💰

Drought Conditions Improving Slightly 🌾
The USDA’s drought monitor shows slight improvements in drought conditions across the Corn Belt, particularly in Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois. However, challenges remain in the High Plains and some areas of the Midwest. 🌧️🌾

US Ethanol Production Holds Steady 🔋
Ethanol production was stable last week, with output holding steady compared to last year. Ethanol stocks saw a 2% increase, and gasoline demand showed a slight uptick year-over-year, despite a weekly dip in demand. ⛽📊

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Warm Temperatures in Argentina 🌡️
Argentina's key farming areas are set to experience temperatures as high as 95°F in the coming days. While the heat could stress crops, the Buenos Aires grains exchange forecasts beneficial rainfall early next week, with some areas receiving up to an inch of rain. The soybean crop is estimated at 49.6mmt, and the corn crop at 49mmt. 🌱🌞

Brazil's Soybean Crop Estimate Reduced 🌾
Agroconsult has revised Brazil's soybean crop estimate to 171.3mmt, down from 172.4mmt in January, mainly due to drought in southern Brazil. However, strong crops in other areas, like Mato Grosso, are expected to offset the losses. Despite the cut, Brazil's soybean crop is still expected to be 10% larger than last season. 🇧🇷🌾

Tensions Between Trump and Zelensky ⚡
Tensions have escalated between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky. Trump recently labeled Zelensky a dictator and blamed Ukraine for the war with Russia. Zelensky rejected the claims, calling Trump’s statements Russian propaganda. Meanwhile, Russia launched a drone strike on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, causing power outages. ⚔️⚡

USDA Mistakenly Fired Bird Flu Response Workers 🦠
The USDA mistakenly laid off several employees working on the bird flu response, including veterinarians and health technicians. These staff members are now being rehired to continue their critical work. The bird flu outbreak has devastated flocks, causing egg prices to hit a record high. 🥚💸

Federal Reserve Maintains Cautious Approach on Rates 💵
The Federal Reserve plans to keep interest rates steady for now, awaiting further signs of inflation improvement. While one rate cut is expected this year, concerns remain over inflation, trade policies, and geopolitical tensions. The current benchmark rate sits at 4.25%-4.5%. 📉

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CME Corn Futures Surge 🚀
CME corn futures hit their best trade since October 2023, with the Mar25 contract breaking the $5 per bushel mark. US export sales remain a key factor, running 28% ahead of last year’s pace, surpassing USDA's projected 7% increase. "The funds" remain active buyers, holding a net long of 360k contracts. Wheat futures also rose, supported by Black Sea headlines and weather concerns in the US and Russia. Soybean futures closed higher as well. 🌽📈

DOGE Evaluates Agricultural Checkoff Programs 💡
The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is reviewing USDA’s 22 checkoff programs as part of a broader effort to reduce federal spending. This review could potentially lead to restructuring or regular voting by producers on whether these programs should continue. The checkoff programs, designed for marketing, research, and education, have faced criticism over transparency and fairness. 🧐

January Soybean Crush Data Released 📊
NOPA's January soybean crush data showed a slight decline from December’s all-time high but was still the second-largest on record for the month. The crush totaled 200.4 million bushels, up 7.9% from last year. Soybean oil stocks climbed to a six-month high of 1.27 billion pounds, though they fell short of trade estimates. 🌱

Trump’s Proposed Tariffs on Automobiles, Semiconductors, and Pharmaceuticals 💰
President Trump announced plans to implement 25% tariffs on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports, with an increase over the next year. The specifics are expected by April, but it's unclear whether the tariffs will target specific countries or all imports. This would have significant effects on U.S. vehicle imports, which make up about half of all vehicle sales in the country. 🚗💥

EU to Ban Pesticide-Treated Crop Imports 🚫
The European Union plans to implement a ban on imports of crops treated with pesticides that are prohibited in Europe for health and environmental reasons. This policy could impact U.S. soybean exports, as the EU is a key buyer of U.S. agricultural products. President Trump has expressed concern, suggesting that such restrictions would harm European markets. 🌍🌾

US Corn Shipments Exceed Expectations 📦
US corn shipments for the week ending February 13 totaled 1.6mmt (63 million bushels), up 19% from the prior week and 53% higher than last year. However, soybean and wheat shipments were below expectations, with soybean exports down 34% and wheat shipments down 56%. 🌾🚢

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0:00 Rollins Confirmed
2:05 DOGE and USDA
3:53 Corn and Wheat Rally
5:24 Black Sea Tensions
8:28 Year-Round E15?
10:00 The Funds
11:06 Brazil Update
12:26 US Corn is Competitive

Brooke Rollins Confirmed as US Secretary of Agriculture 🌾
Brooke Rollins was confirmed as US Secretary of Agriculture with a 72-28 vote. She plans to speed up disaster farm aid and address animal diseases. Rollins emphasized the importance of fairness in agriculture and the USDA's efforts to reduce costs, fraud, and waste. Thousands of probationary employees were fired last week as part of the USDA's efforts to improve efficiency. 🚜

Corn & Wheat Futures Soar 🌽🌾
Corn and wheat futures reached multi-month highs on Friday, with the Mar25 corn contract peaking just below $5.00 per bushel. HRW wheat also posted its highest trade since June, boosted by Black Sea concerns, weather worries in the US and Russia, and short-covering. Soybean futures closed higher but have trended lower since earlier this month. 📉

Ukraine and Europe Concerned About Exclusion from Peace Talks 🇺🇦
Ukraine and European officials are worried about being excluded from US-Russia peace talks. US officials are meeting with Russian leaders to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. While President Trump has mentioned including Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in the talks, the situation remains uncertain. A recent drone attack on Ukraine’s Chernobyl plant has added to tensions. ⚔️

E15 Sales Legislation Reintroduced 🛢️
Bipartisan legislation to allow year-round sales of E15 fuel was reintroduced in the House and Senate. The measure aims to streamline regulations and remove restrictions on E15 availability. The American Petroleum Institute supports the legislation, but new demand could be offset by exports. E15 fuel requires new infrastructure at gas stations. ⛽

Funds Trim Positions in Corn & Soybeans 💹
Large money managers trimmed their net-long positions in both the corn and soybean markets last week. Corn saw a reduction of 35k contracts, while soybean contracts saw a cut of 31k. The funds were net buyers of SRW wheat on the week. 📊

Brazil’s Soybean Harvest Lags 🌱
Brazil's soybean harvest continues to lag behind last year’s pace, with only 23% of the crop harvested so far, compared to 32% last year. The delay in harvest has affected the planting of Brazil's second corn crop, with some areas experiencing hot and dry weather. 🌾

US Corn Flash Sale 🚚
US exporters sold 100,000mt of corn to Colombia for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Corn sales for this marketing year are the second highest in the past decade, and US corn is expected to remain competitive on the global market through at least June. 🌍

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Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs Proposal 💸
President Trump plans to implement reciprocal tariffs aimed at eliminating trade imbalances, with tailored tariffs for each country to spark new trade negotiations. These tariffs, designed to offset the projected $1.9 trillion budget deficit, have raised concerns about potential retaliation and inflation. Critics worry that they could increase costs for consumers and manufacturers, while Trump believes they will lead to fairer trade deals in the long run. ⚖️

Corn Futures Hold Strong 🌽
Corn futures traded near their recent highs, with the Mar25 contract peaking in the $4.90s but still unable to break the $5 mark. The market shrugged off neutral supply/demand data from USDA on Tuesday. Speculators estimate that large money managers ("the funds") were net long around 350k contracts at Thursday’s close. 📉

Brazil’s Corn Production Outlook 📈
Brazil’s Conab raised its forecast for the nation’s corn production by 2.1%, now pegging it at 122mmt. However, corn planting is lagging behind last year’s pace, with only 5.3% of the crop planted so far. The agency also slightly reduced its soybean crop estimate due to dry conditions affecting the southern regions. 🌾

John Deere Faces Challenges 🚜
John Deere reported a 35% drop in first-quarter revenue, missing analysts' expectations. The company warned that President Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum could further harm profitability, as the price of industrial metals rises. Deere expects a decline in sales of large tractors and combines this year. 📉

Strong US Corn & Wheat Export Sales 🌍
US corn and wheat export sales showed strong numbers last week. Corn sales were up 12% compared to the previous week, with Japan as the largest buyer. Wheat sales were also strong, up 30%, with Mexico as the top buyer. Soybean sales, however, were disappointing, falling 52% from the previous week. 🌾

Drought Conditions in the US 🌞
Drought conditions across the Corn Belt remained mostly unchanged, with some expansion in central Missouri to west-central Ohio. Currently, 32% of the region is experiencing some level of drought, compared to 56% three months ago. The High Plains also saw some worsening conditions, particularly in parts of Nebraska and Kansas. 🌾

Wholesale Prices Rise Unexpectedly 📊
US wholesale prices rose 3.5% in January, higher than the expected 3.2% increase. The rise was driven by higher food and energy costs, which has diminished expectations for multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. Some traders now expect no rate cuts at all in 2024 due to the economic impact of tariffs. 💵

Today is THURSDAY! We all make mistakes!

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Soybean Futures Drop 🚜📉
Soybean futures fell sharply on Wednesday, with the Mar25 contract losing nearly 16 cents per bushel, hitting its lowest close since January 16th. Reports of large yields in Brazil, rainfall in Argentina, and a bearish global supply-demand situation have been weighing on prices. Analysts believe that large money managers were net sellers but likely remain net long. 📊

Argentina's Rain Brings Relief 🌧️
Heavy rains in key corn and soybean areas of Argentina on Wednesday brought much-needed moisture to drought-affected regions. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange noted that the rains reached areas that had missed previous precipitation, helping crops recover. USDA has lowered its projection for Argentina’s corn and soybean crops due to the dry conditions. 🌱

Trump and Putin Discuss Ukraine Conflict ☎️
President Trump and Russian President Putin discussed efforts to end the Ukraine war. The move could mark a significant shift in US policy. While some believe an end to the war would be bearish for wheat, the ongoing conflict has not supported prices for the past two years. 🌍

Trump Approves SAF Plant Expansion 🌱
The Trump administration has approved a loan for the expansion of a biofuel plant in Montana. This expansion is aimed at boosting U.S. energy dominance, aligning with Trump's goals despite concerns within the biofuel industry. 🔋

Inflation Higher Than Expected 💸
January's consumer inflation was hotter than anticipated, with a 3.0% rise compared to last year. Housing costs continue to drive inflation, with food and energy also showing increases. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep the key benchmark rate steady in March. 📉

Ethanol Production Declines 📉
US ethanol production fell last week, marking a -2.7% decline from the prior week and a modest drop from the previous year. With rising corn prices, ethanol production margins have trended lower, and the market is currently seeing negative margins. 🌽

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0:00 US Corn and Soybean Numbers
3:01 Global Corn Numbers in Question?
7:01 Argentina Rains
8:31 Mexico Tariff Talk
9:27 The Fed

USDA Keeps Corn and Soybean Estimates Unchanged 🌽
USDA left its corn and soybean balance sheets unchanged on Tuesday, causing the markets to dip. Many traders were hoping for increased demand projections for corn. Minor adjustments were made to the wheat balance sheet, with a 4 million bushel increase in demand. 📉

USDA Lowers Argentina's Corn & Soybean Crop Estimates 🌾
USDA has reduced its estimates for Argentina's corn and soybean crops due to hot and dry weather conditions. The corn crop is now projected at 50mmt, and soybeans at 49mmt. Recent rainfall helped but wasn't enough to fully recover the damage. 🌧️

Rain Brings Relief to Argentina's Crops 🌦️
Rainfall in Argentina this week has provided crucial moisture for the corn and soybean crops, which were struggling in the heat. With temperatures hitting around 104°F on Monday, the rain was a welcome relief, though more is needed for long-term recovery. ☔

Mexico Criticizes US Tariffs on Steel & Aluminum ⚖️
Mexico is set to discuss President Trump's 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports with the U.S. The tariffs are slated to take effect on March 12. Mexico imports more steel and aluminum from the U.S. than it exports, making these tariffs potentially harmful to both economies. 🇲🇽🔨

Federal Reserve Holds Off on Interest Rate Cuts 💵
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that the economy is stable and inflation still needs to cool, so there’s no rush to cut interest rates. The trade expects only two rate cuts this year, with inflation well above the Fed's 2% target. 📉

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USDA Report Due Today 📊
USDA's monthly Crop Production and WASDE report will be released today at 11am CST, with slight reductions expected in US corn and soybean ending stocks. Global estimates for corn and soybeans, as well as Brazil and Argentina crop forecasts, are also anticipated to be adjusted. This is the old crop report; the first official 25/26 balance sheets will come in May. 🌾📉

Brazil’s Soybean Harvest Lags 🌱
Brazil's soybean harvest is behind last year’s pace, with only 15% of the crop harvested compared to 23% last year. The delay could affect the planting of Brazil’s second corn crop, with planting in the south-central region at only 20%. 🚜

Brazil’s Inflation Hits 6% 📈
Brazil’s inflation forecast for the coming year has been revised up to nearly 6%, marking the 18th consecutive upward revision. High inflation is linked to elevated government spending and low unemployment. Analysts predict interest rates may reach 15.25% by June. 💸

Russia Cuts Wheat Forecast 🥖
Russian consulting group IKAR lowered its wheat production and export estimates due to freezing temperatures. Wheat exports are projected at 43mmt, down from a previous forecast of 43.5mmt. The decline reflects adverse weather and low stock levels. 🌾❄️

Trump’s Tariffs on Steel & Aluminum ⚒️
President Trump imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, affecting all U.S. trading partners. These tariffs will impact various sectors, including automobiles and construction. Trump cites trade deficits and revenue generation as reasons for the move. 🇺🇸🔨

USDA Flash Sale of Corn 🌽
US exporters sold 365,000mt (14mil bushels) of corn to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. This brings accumulated corn sales up by 28% compared to last year. 🌽🇲🇽

Record Number of H-2A Visas for South African Workers 🌍
The U.S. issued a record number of H-2A visas to South African farm workers last year, with 15,159 permits granted. This marks a 19% increase from the previous year. Mexico remains the top recipient of these visas. 🛂

Strong US Corn Shipments 🚢
US corn exports were strong last week, with 1.3mmt (53mil bushels) inspected for export, up 49% from the previous year. Wheat shipments exceeded expectations, rising by 112%. However, soybean shipments were down 22% from the same week last year. 📦