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Trump’s New Tariff Plans and Their Impact on Trade
Donald Trump is taking bold steps to address migration and drug trade concerns by imposing additional tariffs. Trump plans to add a 10% tariff on imported goods from China and 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada. The tariffs are part of a broader effort to discourage migration and curb drug trafficking. These new tariffs would complement his earlier plans for 60% tariffs on Chinese imports and 20% on global imports.

US Winter Wheat Conditions Improve with Rainfall
US winter wheat conditions improved dramatically last week thanks to recent rainfall across the High Plains. The crop is now rated 55% good to excellent, a marked improvement from 49% the prior week and 45% on average. The 17% improvement since the end of October is the best for this time of year since 2018. Only 12% of the crop is rated poor to very poor, down from 23% last month.

Brazil Soybean Planting Near Completion
Brazil's soybean planting is nearing completion, with 86% of the expected area already planted by last Thursday. This is up from 80% the previous week and significantly ahead of last year’s pace of 74%. 

US Halts Mexican Cattle Imports Due to Screwworm Discovery
The US has halted Mexican cattle imports after the discovery of New World screwworm in a cow near the Guatemalan border in Chiapas, Mexico. This parasite causes severe infections and can infest both animals and humans. As Mexico is the largest source of US cattle imports, this halt is expected to dramatically reduce the supply of feeder cattle, sending futures soaring to their highest levels since July. Imports from Mexico, which were up 21.3% this year, are expected to be restricted for at least the next month.

Coffee Futures Surge Amid Supply Concerns
Coffee futures saw a significant surge on Monday, with Arabica coffee climbing 3% to its highest level since 1997. Robusta futures also hit their highest since the 1970s. Concerns over supply shortages in Brazil and Vietnam are driving prices up. While Brazil experienced heavy rains in October, earlier hot and dry conditions have damaged coffee trees, impacting the upcoming season's production. The USDA forecasts Brazil’s coffee stockpiles to fall 26% by the end of the season, exacerbating concerns.

Scott Bessent Expected to Soften Trump’s Economic Policies
Financial markets reacted positively to Scott Bessent’s appointment as US Treasury Secretary. Bessent, the founder of Key Square Group, is expected to advocate for a more gradual use of tariffs and a focus on economic growth through regulation reduction. His appointment has led to a rise in currencies worldwide, with investors anticipating a softer stance on some of Trump's more extreme economic policies. 

US Soybean and Corn Export Sales Update
US soybean shipments declined last week, with 2.1 million metric tons (77 million bushels) inspected for export, a 7.3% drop from the previous week. However, they are still +34% higher compared to the same week last year. On the other hand, corn exports soared, reaching 903,049 metric tons (36 million bushels), which is +115% higher than last year. Wheat exports were also strong, with 360,513 metric tons (13 million bushels) sold, a +25% increase from the same week last year.

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🚢 Mexico's Bold Port Expansion Despite Trade Concerns 🌎

Mexico is moving forward with a $2.7 billion port expansion at the Port of Manzanillo, aiming to more than double its capacity 🚢. This expansion will place it among the top 20 container ports globally 🌍. The port handles goods from over 140 countries, focusing on automotive, agricultural, and steel products. However, there are concerns from the US and Canada that Mexico could become a conduit for China to bypass trade restrictions and enter North America 🚫🇨🇳. Donald Trump has indicated that he plans to impose tariffs on imports from China and Mexico, including a 20% tariff on all goods and a 60% tariff on Chinese imports 📉. Trump has also suggested tariffs of over 200% on imported cars from Mexico 🚗.

🌱 Trump Appoints Brooke Rollins to Lead USDA 🌾

Brooke Rollins has been appointed by Donald Trump to lead the USDA. This surprise choice comes after significant debates among Trump's advisors and agricultural groups 🏛️. Although Rollins has deep ties to Trump and grew up on a farm, she has less agricultural policy experience compared to other candidates. As Secretary of Agriculture, Rollins will play a critical role in shaping agricultural policy, farm subsidies, and trade decisions, including Trump’s proposed tariffs 🏞️🍽️.

🌽 Funds Increase Net-Long Position in Corn Market 💼

"The Funds" have ramped up their net-long position in the corn market, as large money managers bought 7,000 corn contracts last week 📈. This brings their total net purchases to 463,000 contracts since July. The corn market remains strong amid solid demand, and fund managers continue to stay bullish 🌽. On the other hand, soybeans and SRW wheat saw net selling activity last week 📉.

🌱 Brazil’s Soybean Planting Surges Ahead 🌾

Brazilian soybean planting has made rapid progress, with 83.3% of the expected area already planted 🧑‍🌾, compared to 74.7% last year at this time. Adequate rainfall in recent weeks has accelerated planting, alleviating earlier concerns about dryness 🌧️. With planting well ahead of schedule, Brazil is on track to produce another bumper soybean crop 📊.

🐄 High Cattle On-Feed Numbers Reported 🐄

Cattle on feed in the US remains high, with 12 million head as of November 1, matching pre-report expectations 📉. Placements in October were 105.3% of year-ago levels, reflecting higher placements due to ongoing drought conditions in cattle regions 🐂. Despite this, marketings were lower than expected, with 104.7% of year-ago levels, indicating market stability in the face of strong demand.

🌾 USDA Flash Sale of Soybeans 📦

On Friday, the USDA reported a flash sale of 198,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year 🌍. Since November, unknown destinations have bought 1.2 million metric tons (44 million bushels) of US soybeans through flash sales, indicating continued strong demand for US agricultural exports 🌾📦.

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📈 John Deere Surges Despite Lower Earnings 🚜
John Deere's stock soared 8% on Thursday, following better-than-expected earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter. Despite adjusted earnings per share coming in at $4.55 (higher than the expected $3.87), they were still down significantly from last year's $8.26. Revenue for the quarter dropped 28% to $11.1 billion, but still exceeded the forecast of $9.2 billion. Looking ahead, net income for fiscal 2025 is expected to range between $5 billion and $5.5 billion, down from $7.1 billion in fiscal 2024. Deere’s stock is up 9% year-to-date 📊.

🌱 Soybean Futures Face Pressure 🌍
Soybean futures are under pressure, with the Jan25 contract hovering near life-of-contract lows 📉. Recent negative headlines, combined with favorable weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina, and global oversupply, are contributing to the bearish sentiment. Additionally, concerns over a potential US-China trade war have added to the uncertainty in the market 🌾.

🌾 US Soybean Export Sales Surge 🌍
US soybean export sales showed improvement last week, surpassing pre-report expectations with 1.9 million metric tons (68 million bushels) sold 🛳️. This represents a +20% increase compared to the previous week, though it is still -7% below the 4-week average. China was the largest buyer, continuing its strong demand for US soybeans 🇨🇳. On the other hand, corn sales and wheat sales saw mixed results, with corn sales up 14% from the prior week but down 40% from the 4-week average 🌽.

🌧️ USDA Drought Monitor Update 🌾
The USDA released new drought data, showing improvement in many areas of the Corn Belt following last week's rainfall 🌧️. The overall drought conditions have improved significantly, with only 50% of the region still experiencing some form of drought, down from 74% at the end of October 🌽. Oklahoma and parts of the High Plains also saw improvements in drought conditions 🌾.

🇦🇷 Argentina’s Soybean and Corn Planting Progress 🚜
Argentina is seeing rapid progress in its soybean planting, with nearly 36% of the expected 46 million acres already planted 🌱. The good surface moisture has helped speed up the planting process, with early-planted soybeans showing excellent growth 🌿. In addition, corn planting has reached 39.4% of the expected acreage, and 29.3% of the wheat crop has already been harvested 🌾.

🚨 Flash Sales on Soybeans and Meal 🌍
USDA reported multiple flash sales on Thursday, including:
198,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) of soybeans to China 🇨🇳 for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.
135,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations 🌎.
133,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal to the Philippines 🇵🇭.
These sales highlight continued strong demand for US agricultural products 📦.

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0:00 Brazil/China Agreement
3:00 Corn Futures are Resilient
6:09 Ethanol Production is STRONG
7:25 Russia Wheat
8:43 Deere Earnings
9:45 Flash Sales

🇨🇳 China Opens Door to Brazilian Sorghum Exports 
China has agreed to accept Brazilian sorghum exports, which could significantly impact the US sorghum market. Last year, China imported $1.83 billion worth of sorghum, predominantly from the US 🇺🇸, but with this new deal, Brazil could emerge as a major supplier 🌍. Brazil’s share of the global sorghum market currently stands at just 0.3%, but production has doubled in the last three years to 4.4 million metric tons (mmt) 📊. The move could become even more significant if Trump implements tariffs on China, potentially disrupting US exports to China.

🌽 Resilient Corn Futures Show Strong Demand 
Corn futures have remained resilient, with the Dec24 contract showing modest gains despite earlier setbacks 📉. Demand continues to be strong, with export sales exceeding the pace needed to meet USDA projections 📦. Ethanol production is near record levels, contributing to the overall strength of the corn market 🌽. Large money managers are holding a net long position of around 114,000 contracts, suggesting optimism for continued demand. Calendar spreads are also showing strength, reflecting better-than-expected demand.

⛽ US Ethanol Production and Stocks Update
US ethanol production saw a slight dip last week but remains at record highs, averaging 1.11 million barrels per day ⛽. Production is up 6% compared to the same week last year, while ethanol stocks reached 22.56 million barrels, marking a +2.4% increase from the previous week 📉. However, implied gasoline demand showed a -10% decline from the prior week and a -5.9% decrease compared to last year. Despite this, ethanol exports are strong, contributing to record-high production levels.

🌾 Russia Faces Wheat Decline
Russia’s wheat production is expected to fall in the coming year, with farmers shifting to more profitable crops like soybeans and sunflowers 🌻. Frosts and drought have damaged this year’s crop, and production is projected to decline to 83 mmt, down from 92.8 mmt last year 🌾. In addition, increased input costs and export restrictions are further challenging the wheat market.

🚜 John Deere’s Struggles in a Weak Farm Economy
John Deere is set to report its lowest earnings since 2020, with estimated adjusted earnings per share of $3.87 for the fourth quarter, down from $8.26 last year 💼. Deere’s profit forecasts for the next fiscal year could drop to $5.83 billion, reflecting ongoing challenges in the agricultural sector.

🌱 USDA Flash Sales of Soybeans 🇺🇸
The USDA reported flash sales of soybeans on Wednesday, with 202,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) sold to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year 🇨🇳. Another 226,200 metric tons (8 million bushels) were sold to unknown destinations.

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0:00 New Tariff Man
3:05 Xi, Brazil, Farm Trade
4:55 Brazil Crop Estimates
8:23 Russia Update
9:59 US Ethanol Exports

🚨 Major Shifts in Global Trade and Leadership 🚨

🇺🇸 Donald Trump Appoints Howard Lutnick to Lead Commerce Department
Donald Trump has selected Howard Lutnick, the Chairman and CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, to head the Commerce Department. Known for his strong stance against the outsourcing of American jobs, Lutnick is expected to play a key role in implementing Trump’s tariff and trade policies. Trump's agenda includes a 10-20% tariff on all imports and a 60% tariff on imports from China 💼🇨🇳. He is also considering raising tariffs on imported cars from Mexico and countries that stop using the US dollar 🚗💰.

🌏 China Urges for Peace and Stability in Global Trade
During the G-20 and APEC summits, Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of peace and avoiding extreme trade measures that could disrupt global trade 🚢⚖️. Xi expressed concerns about the economic repercussions of Trump's tariff plans, particularly regarding the potential for other countries to adopt similar policies 🌍. Meanwhile, Brazil is gearing up for agricultural trade deals with China, expected to include fruit, beef, and pork 🌱🍖.

🇧🇷 Brazil’s Soybean Industry on Track for Record Crop 📈
Brazil’s soybean crop is expected to hit record levels this season, with projections from the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries estimating a crop size of 167.7 million metric tons (mmt), a 9.4% increase from last year 🌱. Exports are projected to reach an all-time high of 104.1 million metric tons, driven by a boom in soybean crush, which is set to rise 4.6% this season 🌾💥.

⚔️ Ukraine-Russia Conflict Escalates
The ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia continues to intensify, with Ukraine striking a Russian military facility after being approved to use US-supplied long-range missiles. In response, Vladimir Putin updated Russia’s nuclear policy, stating that Russia would use nuclear weapons if Ukraine attacks Russian territory with Western-supplied weapons. The situation remains volatile, with Donald Trump suggesting he could push for peace talks once back in the White House 🕊️💣.

🌾 US Ethanol Exports Reach New Heights 🚜
US ethanol exports are on track to set an all-time high, with a record 29.6 million barrels exported in the first eight months of this year 📊. The increase in exports comes as a result of last year’s record corn crop 🌽, leading to a decline in corn prices and making US ethanol more competitive globally 🌍. Production is also at a record pace, with daily production averaging 1.046 million barrels per day ⛽.

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🌍 Global Tensions Rise as US Approves Long-Range Weapons for Ukraine 🚨

In a significant escalation, Moscow has issued a warning after President Joe Biden's approval of Ukraine’s use of US-supplied long-range missiles. The decision comes amid heightened global tensions, as North Korea joins Russia in supporting its stance against Ukraine. 🇷🇺🛑

As Russia intensifies its assault on Ukrainian residential areas 🏚️, Putin reiterates Russia's readiness to use nuclear weapons if necessary ☢️. Experts suggest the timing of this shift may be too late to alter the course of the ongoing war. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have made their first strike into Russian territory using Western-made missiles. ✈️💥

🌱 Brazil's Soybean Planting Surge 🌾
Brazilian farmers are rapidly advancing their soybean planting, with 80% of the expected area already seeded as of last Thursday 📊. Although concerns about reduced rainfall in certain regions persist 🌧️, the crop remains on track. Additionally, Brazil has made significant progress on its first corn crop 🌽, with 86% planted compared to 72% last week.

🌾 Improved US Wheat Conditions 🌾
Rainfall has brought a much-needed boost to winter wheat conditions in the High Plains 🌧️. Crop ratings for wheat have risen to 49% good to excellent, marking the best conditions since 2019 📈. Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas have seen significant week-over-week improvements 🌾.

🌱 Corteva’s Hybrid Wheat Seed Could Revolutionize Yields 🚜
Corteva announces a game-changing hybrid wheat seed that could boost yields by up to 20% in dry conditions 🌾🌞. This new non-GMO seed technology will initially be rolled out in North America by 2027 and aims to improve wheat production without additional land or resources 🌍.

📉 US Soybean & Wheat Shipments Update 🚢
US soybean exports declined last week 📉, with a -8.4% decrease in shipments compared to the previous week. However, corn exports were on the rise, with shipments up +37% from last year 📊. Wheat shipments were down significantly, falling by -48% compared to last year 🚜. Flash sales were reported with soybean oil, soybeans, and soybean meal sold to international buyers 🛳️.

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📊 Funds Expand Net-Long Positions in Corn
Last week, large money managers substantially increased their net-long positions in corn: 
Net buyers of 97k corn contracts, with a total net long of 100k contracts—the largest since February 2023.
Despite the buying spree, the Dec24 corn contract gained only 12 cents during the reporting week.
Funds were also net buyers of 17k soybean contracts and sellers of 18k SRW wheat contracts. 📉

🌍 China’s Tax Rebate Changes Impact Soybean Oil Prices
China plans to reduce or eliminate export tax rebates on various products, including used cooking oil: 
The removal of tax rebates for used cooking oil, widely used in biofuel production, has raised US soybean oil prices.
US soybean oil futures climbed 2% on Friday, reflecting expectations of increased domestic usage.
Chinese used cooking oil imports have been undercutting US farmers, with concerns about fraudulent imports raised earlier this year. These changes will take effect December 1.

🏭 US Soybean Crush Hits Record High
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported an all-time high US soybean crush for October:
199.96 million bushels processed, up 12.8% from September and 5.4% from October 2023.
End-of-month soybean oil stocks rose slightly to 1.07 billion pounds, below the trade estimate of 1.09 billion pounds.
Strong crush numbers signal robust domestic demand for soybeans and soybean oil. 🌱

🌍 Summit Carbon Pipeline Gains Approval in North Dakota
Summit Carbon Solutions has secured regulatory approval for its carbon pipeline route in North Dakota:
The permit was initially denied in 2023 but was granted after Summit made changes to its proposal.
Summit has secured 82% of easements in North Dakota but still lacks eminent domain authority.
The company plans to reapply for a permit in South Dakota this week after a prior denial. 🌎

🚢 Disappointing Export Sales
US export sales were lower across the board last week:
Soybeans: 1.6mmt (57 million bushels), down 24% week-over-week and from the 4-week average. China was the largest buyer.
Corn: 1.3mmt (52 million bushels), down 53% week-over-week and 52% from the 4-week average. Unknown destinations topped the buyers.
Wheat: 380,100mt (14 million bushels), a slight +1% week-over-week but -17% from the 4-week average. South Korea was the largest buyer.

🌾 Rain Boosts US Winter Wheat
Rainfall across US HRW wheat country has improved soil moisture and crop conditions:
Rain was observed in Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, and Missouri overnight, following substantial rainfall last weekend.
Winter wheat ratings improved last week and are expected to improve further with the recent rains in HRW and SRW wheat areas.

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🌾 Soybean and Wheat Futures Weakening
Soybean futures are moving closer to August lows, with the Jan24 soybean contract dropping 20 cents per bushel on Thursday, hovering around 20 cents from its August low. Factors such as a massive Brazilian crop, the US/China trade tension, and global supply pressures continue to weigh heavily on prices.
Similarly, the Dec24 HRW wheat contract dropped 8 cents and is trading just 9 cents above its August low. However, there is some optimism as US winter wheat conditions are likely to improve with the recent rainfall.

🏛️ Trump Administration Changes
President-elect Donald Trump has nominated Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). The nomination is expected to face Senate challenges, especially given Kennedy’s controversial stances on food safety, environmental policies, and vaccination.

Trump’s tariff proposals continue to attract attention. Jamie Dimon, CEO of J.P. Morgan Chase, believes tariffs are a necessary tool for addressing unfair trade but emphasized that their implementation needs to be cautious. Despite this, Dimon was not invited to serve in Trump’s administration.

🔋 US Ethanol Production Hits Record High
The US ethanol production reached a record-high last week, with output hitting 1.11 million barrels per day. This exceeded previous records set earlier this year. Ethanol stocks also saw a slight increase of 5% year-over-year. However, implied gasoline demand saw a slight dip of 1.1% compared to the same week last year.

🌎 Brazil Adjusts Crop Estimates
Brazil's Conab (National Supply Company) has made slight adjustments to its 2024 corn and soybean crop estimates. The forecast for corn production stands at 119.8mmt, a small increase, with soybean production remaining at 166.1mmt. Exports for both crops have been adjusted slightly as well.

💡 Farmers Turning to Generic Chemicals
With a decline in farm income, farmers are increasingly turning to generic pesticides and fungicides to cut costs. This shift could financially impact large chemical companies like Bayer, Syngenta, and Corteva, particularly as patents on active ingredients expire. Bayer's stock reached a 20-year low due to these changes.

🌧️ US Drought Conditions Update
Drought conditions continue to persist across a large portion of the Corn Belt, although some relief came last week with rainfall across Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri. Drought conditions in Nebraska and Southeast Wisconsin worsened, but significant improvements were noted in the Southern High Plains, including Kansas and Oklahoma.

📦 USDA Flash Sales
US soybean export sales were reported at 176,000mt (6 million bushels) for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. This brings the year-to-date soybean export sales up by 17% compared to last year.

*Correction at the top of the episode- Today's date is Thursday, November 14th.

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🏛️ Impact of Trump's Trade Policies on US Agriculture
US farmers are unsure about the effects of Donald Trump's trade policies on soybean exports and biodiesel production. While tariffs may limit soybean exports to China, they could also lead to increased demand for US soybean oil due to restrictions on imported oils, particularly for biodiesel production. There's optimism that Trump's policies might curb imported biofuel feedstocks from receiving 45Z tax credits, potentially expanding the US crushing capacity. However, higher construction costs due to tariffs may hinder this expansion.

🌽 Flash Sales of Corn
US corn exporters reported two flash sales on Wednesday:
401,357mt (16 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
290,820mt (11 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for the same delivery period.

🇦🇷 Argentina's Grain Crop Forecast
Argentina's Rosario Grain Exchange raised its forecast for the 2024/2025 soybean crop to 53mmt - 53.5mmt, up from a previous estimate of 52mmt - 53mmt. The increase was due to favorable rainfall in October, improving planting conditions. However, the exchange lowered its corn crop estimate to 50mmt - 51mmt, down from 51mmt - 52mmt due to drought earlier in the year. Additionally, the wheat crop estimate was cut to 18.8mmt, down from 19.5mmt, reflecting the ongoing dry conditions.

🏢 ADM Faces Accounting Troubles
ADM's (Archer Daniels Midland) compliance chief, Ben Bard, is departing amid ongoing accounting issues. These accounting errors were discovered earlier this year and led to an SEC investigation, the resignation of the CFO, and $12 billion in market value losses. Bard was responsible for global compliance and internal audits. The company is still working to resolve these issues.

📊 Consumer Prices in October
US consumer prices rose 0.2% in October, bringing the annual increase to 2.6%, up slightly from 2.4% in September. Housing costs contributed significantly to the increase, rising by 4.9% over the past year. Futures markets are pricing in about an 80% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by another quarter point at its December meeting, despite concerns over potential inflationary pressures from Trump's policies.

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🌿 Lee Zeldin Nominated for EPA Head
President-Elect Trump's choice to lead the EPA has sparked controversy. Lee Zeldin, former New York congressman, will focus on deregulation to boost American business and energy dominance. Critics, including environmental groups, argue that Zeldin is unqualified and will harm environmental policies, especially concerning biofuels. His nomination will require Senate confirmation.

📉 ADM Faces Financial Reporting Delays
ADM (Archer Daniels Midland) has requested more time to file its third-quarter financial report after accounting errors were discovered. This follows a previous delay earlier this year, marking a rough period for the company, which has seen its stock fall by 29% year-to-date. These errors have affected financial data spanning six years.

🌾 Russia's Grain Production Forecast Includes Occupied Ukrainian Land
Russia's agriculture ministry forecasts a 130 million metric ton (mmt) grain harvest for 2024, a 12% drop from 2023. This includes grain from Ukrainian regions under Russian control. There are concerns that these figures may not reflect the true harvest numbers, as Russia allegedly includes Ukrainian data in a bid to hide its losses from the ongoing conflict.

🌾 US Winter Wheat Conditions Improve
US winter wheat conditions improved due to recent rainfall. As of Sunday, 44% of the crop was rated good to excellent, up from 41% the prior week. Kansas saw the biggest improvement in conditions, along with Oklahoma, Texas, and Nebraska. The crop is 91% planted, near the average of 93%.

🌱 US Row Crop Harvest Nears Completion
The US corn harvest reached 95% completion, the fastest pace since 2005, while soybeans were 96% harvested. North Carolina and Colorado are the only states running below-average harvest pace. Meanwhile, Louisiana, Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota have completed their harvests.

📦 US Exports: Soybean Shipments Decline Slightly
Soybean exports were slightly down last week at 2.3mmt, but still up by 13% compared to the same week last year. Corn shipments also saw a slight decline but were up by 10% versus the same week last year. Wheat shipments were stronger, increasing by 69% from the prior week.

📈 Flash Sales for US Corn
US corn export sales continue to perform well, with a flash sale of 110,500mt (4 million bushels) to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. Corn sales are up 48% compared to last year, reflecting strong international demand.