Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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0:00 18k Subs!
0:50 Shutdown Avoided + Direct Payments
4:24 Argentina is Dry
6:30 Biofuels at Risk?
8:00 US/Mexico Corn Dispute
9:20 The Funds
10:05 Cattle on Feed

US Government Shutdown Avoided with New Stopgap Spending Bill
A US government shutdown was avoided over the weekend when President Joe Biden signed a stopgap spending bill that will fund the government through mid-March. The bill includes a one-year extension of the 2018 farm bill and $10 billion in economic aid for US farmers. However, a provision allowing the nationwide, year-round sale of E15 fuel was excluded.

Direct Farm Payments Set to Arrive in 90 Days
The $10 billion in direct payments to US farmers is now a "done deal," with payments set to be distributed within 90 days. The payments will be allocated by crop. The payments are part of the stopgap bill, which also includes significant support for the farming community.

Argentina's Forecast: Dry Conditions for Soybean Areas
Argentina’s soybean areas are expected to receive less than half of their normal rainfall over the next two weeks. Although the forecast is slightly wetter than before, the overall trend remains dry. Temperatures are expected to run above normal, further stressing crops. While Argentina is projected to account for just 12% of global soybean production, it is expected to make up 37% of soybean meal exports.

Trump Plans to Repeal the Inflation Reduction Act
President-elect Donald Trump is planning to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which was passed by the Biden administration in August 2022. The repeal of the IRA could also risk the loss of 45Z tax credits, which support farming practices that reduce emissions and improve soil carbon. Repealing the IRA would likely require Congressional action, and its rollback could impact the clean energy sector.

US Prevails in GMO Corn Trade Dispute with Mexico
The US won a trade dispute with Mexico over its ban of US genetically modified (GMO) corn. A trade panel ruled that Mexico’s ban violated the USMCA trade agreement and was not scientifically based. The ban had previously applied to GMO corn for human consumption, but US producers were concerned that it might be extended to GMO corn used for animal feed.

Funds Reduce Net-Long Position in Corn
Funds reduced their net-long position in corn last week, with large money managers reported as net sellers of 8,000 corn contracts. Soybean and SRW wheat contracts also saw net selling.

USDA’s COF Report
The USDA’s Cattle on Feed report shows that the number of cattle on feed as of December 1 was 12 million head. Placements in November were reported at 96% of year-ago levels. Marketings last month came in at 99% of year-ago levels.

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US House Rejects Trump-Backed Spending Bill
The House rejected a Trump-backed spending bill on Thursday night. The bill required a two-thirds majority but failed by a vote of 174 to 235, with nearly 40 Republicans voting against it. Without a deal, a partial government shutdown is set to begin tonight at midnight.

Soybean Futures Bounce Amid Bearish Market
Soybean futures bounced back on Thursday after hitting fresh lows earlier in the week. The March 2025 contract gained 13 cents on the day after breaking through technical support levels. Despite bearish fundamentals, the bounce maintained momentum overnight, although the contract may face technical resistance near the $9.82 level, a previous area of support. Corn futures also bounced, while wheat remained mostly lackluster in price action.

Drier Conditions Expected for Key Soybean Areas in Argentina
Key soybean areas in Argentina are expected to turn drier in the coming weeks. Recent below-normal precipitation has already affected corn and soybean regions, and the forecast predicts that Argentina’s soybean areas will receive only 46% of normal rainfall over the next two weeks. Argentina is projected to account for 12% of global soybean production this year. Meanwhile, Brazil’s weather forecasts remain favorable, with most key soybean areas expecting above-normal rainfall. CropProphet provides detailed weather maps to track these shifts.

Chicago Wheat Futures Decline for Sixth Consecutive Session
Chicago wheat futures declined for the sixth consecutive session on Thursday, with the March 2025 contract falling by as much as 1.9%. This marks the lowest level since late August. The decline was attributed to a strong US dollar and concerns about ample global wheat supplies. According to the USDA, global wheat production for the season is expected to be the largest on record.

US Soybean Export Sales Increase
US soybean export sales saw an increase last week, with 1.4mmt (52 million bushels) of soybeans sold. This was a 21% increase from the previous week but down 27% from the 4-week average. China was the largest soybean buyer for the week. Corn sales also saw an increase, with 1.2mmt (46 million bushels) sold, up 24% from the prior week. Wheat sales were strong as well, totaling 457,900mt (17 million bushels), a 58% increase from the previous week.

AGCO Shares Plummet Amid Struggling Farm Economy
AGCO’s shares tumbled by as much as 6.1% on Thursday before recovering slightly to close with a 3.8% loss. The decline follows AGCO’s announcement that 2025 net sales are projected to be around $9.6 billion, a significant drop from the $12 billion estimated for this year. The reduction is partly due to AGCO’s divestment of its grain-storage and livestock business, compounded by the struggling farm economy, which is expected to weigh on sales. North American retail sales are projected to decline by 25% next year.

USDA Drought Monitor Data: Conditions Improve in Some Areas
The latest USDA drought monitor data reveals that parts of the Corn Belt received precipitation last week. Drought conditions improved across portions of Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, and Missouri, but worsened slightly in western Missouri. The High Plains saw scattered precipitation, and conditions improved in northeast Nebraska and southwest Kansas.

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Trump Opposes Stopgap US Government Spending Bill
President-elect Donald Trump has voiced strong opposition to the stopgap US government spending bill. In a Fox News interview, Trump stated that he is totally against the bill, although he doesn’t have the power to veto it, as he isn’t president yet. Trump’s influence over Republican lawmakers could still impact the bill’s passage. The spending package, if passed, would fund the government through mid-March. However, if the bill fails, the government could face a partial shutdown as early as Saturday. The bill includes $31 billion in aid for US farmers, which has been a point of contention for many agricultural groups.

Soybean Futures Collapse Amid Bearish Market Sentiment
Soybean futures took a significant hit on Wednesday, with the March 2025 contract losing more than 25 cents per bushel. On a continuation basis, spot futures posted their lowest trade since late August. A breakout below key technical support earlier in the week likely triggered additional selling pressure. Fund traders were estimated to have sold 20,000 contracts, contributing to the downward trend. 

Brazil's Soybean Crop Estimate Continues to Rise
Estimates for Brazil’s soybean crop continue to grow. Patria Agronegocios, a Brazilian consulting group, now expects the crop to reach 170.4 million metric tons (mmt), slightly above the USDA's forecast of 169 mmt. Brazil’s corn crop is also projected to be robust at 129.3 mmt, compared to the USDA's estimate of 127 mmt.

US Ethanol Production Strong Again
US ethanol production was strong last week, with output reaching 1.1 million barrels per day, a 2.3% increase from the previous week and 2.7% higher than the same week last year. Ethanol stocks stood at 22.6 million barrels, slightly lower than the prior week but still up 2.4% year-over-year. Implied gasoline demand was up 1.3% compared to the previous week and 1% higher than last year, reflecting consistent fuel demand. Over the last four weeks, implied US gasoline demand is up 2.9% compared to the same period last year.

Biden Administration Awards $116 Million to Fertilizer Industry
The Biden administration has awarded $116 million to the fertilizer industry to help increase competition and lower costs. The funds will be distributed to eight facilities to expand fertilizer production across nine states. This investment comes as agricultural groups and lawmakers have criticized the consolidation of the $140 billion US fertilizer industry. 

Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates for Third Time in a Row
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% on Wednesday, marking its third consecutive rate cut. The new benchmark short-term rate is now 4.25% to 4.5%. The Fed signaled that it expects to reduce rates only twice in 2025, as opposed to the previously anticipated four cuts. The news sent stock markets tumbling, with the Dow Jones falling 2.6%, the S&P 500 dropping 3%, and the Nasdaq losing 3.6%.

The USDA reported flash sales on Wednesday:
135,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of corn were sold to Colombia for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
120,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal were sold to Colombia for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.

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0:00 Direct Farm Payments
4:08 Year-Round / Nationwide E15
6:37 Soybean Collapse
8:12 Reduced Russian Wheat Crop
9:39 Brazil Currency
11:22 Flash Sales

Stopgap US Government Spending Bill Includes Aid for Farmers
If approved, the stopgap US government spending bill will include additional economic assistance for farmers. The bill extends the 2018 Farm Bill for one year and provides $10 billion in aid to help farmers cope with challenging markets and severe weather conditions. The House of Representatives is expected to vote on the bill Thursday night, and it will then head to the Senate for approval before the government shutdown deadline on Friday night. 

Year-Round E15 Fuel Sales Approved
The stopgap funding bill will allow for the year-round, nationwide sale of E15 fuel. Currently, E15 is available only in a few states during the summer months due to environmental restrictions. The approval is expected to gradually increase ethanol usage, with demand growth contingent on consumer adoption and infrastructure development.

Soybean Futures Hit Fresh Lows
Soybean futures fell to fresh lows overnight, with the March 2025 contract dipping below $9.70 per bushel for the first time. The violation of key technical support levels led to additional selling pressure. The global soybean supply and demand situation is projected to be hugely burdensome due to the expectation of a massive Brazilian crop. While US processors are on track to crush a record amount of soybeans, exports have been weak compared to the last decade.

Sovecon Cuts Russia’s 2025 Wheat Crop Forecast
Sovecon, a Russian consulting group, has reduced its forecast for Russia’s 2025 wheat crop by 3.7%, bringing the projection down to 78.7 million metric tons (mmt). The reduction is due to poor crop conditions, which are some of the worst seen in decades. If achieved, the 2025 wheat crop would be the smallest since 2021 and below the five-year average of 88.2 mmt. 

Brazilian Central Bank Intervenes to Stabilize Real
The Central Bank of Brazil conducted two dollar auctions on Tuesday, totaling over $3.3 billion in an effort to stabilize the real. This marks the fourth intervention in three days, aiming to halt the currency’s steep decline. The real has fallen by more than 20% this year, hitting a record low against the US dollar. On the back of this, Brazil’s central bank hiked interest rates by 1% to 12.25% last week, with two more hikes expected by March. 

The USDA reported several flash sales of soybeans and corn on Tuesday:
170,400mt (7 million bushels) of corn were sold to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
187,000mt (7 million bushels) of soybeans were sold to Spain for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.
132,000mt (5 million bushels) of soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.

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🌱 NOPA Reports November Soybean Crush Data 📊

The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) released its November crush data, showing a decline in US soybean crush for the month. NOPA members processed 193.19 million bushels, a 3.4% decrease from the October record but a 2.2% increase compared to November 2023 🌾. Despite the drop from October, November’s crush was the largest on record for the month and the fourth largest ever for any month. Soybean oil stocks at the end of November increased to 1.08 billion pounds, up 1% from October but down 11% compared to last year’s stocks. Stocks also fell short of the average trade estimate of 1.12 billion pounds 📉.

⚖️ Farm Aid Negotiations Delay Stopgap Funding Bill ⏳

Negotiations over farm aid have delayed the release of the stopgap funding bill. Initially expected on Sunday, the bill's release has been postponed due to disagreements over economic farm assistance and other provisions. Speaker Mike Johnson is facing challenges due to a slim majority and conservative opposition as the government faces a shutdown deadline this Saturday 🏛️. Lawmakers from agriculture states are pushing for a one-year farm bill extension and additional funding for farmers affected by severe weather 🌾. GOP leaders are pushing for $12 billion in economic aid for farmers, and agricultural groups are urging that this be included in the final package 💼. Updates on this are expected to be released as early as today 📰.

💸 Brazilian Real Hits Record Low, Central Bank Takes Action 🇧🇷

The Brazilian real fell to a record low on Monday, leading the central bank to sell $1.63 billion in a dollar spot auction to stabilize the currency 🏦. Despite this effort, the real declined more than 1%, closing at 6.1351 per dollar 🌍. The central bank had also raised interest rates by 1% last week, with plans for two more hikes, but these measures have had limited impact due to rising government spending and inflation concerns 💰. Brazil’s president has shifted blame to the central bank for the country’s fiscal challenges and is defending the government's recent fiscal package 📉.

🌾 Brazilian Soybean Planting Nearly Complete 🇧🇷

Brazilian farmers have nearly completed soybean planting for the 2023/2024 season, with favorable rainfall boosting growing conditions across most of the country 🌧️. However, far southern areas have received excessive precipitation, which could impact those regions' crops 🌱. AgRural, a private agricultural group, is projecting that Brazil’s soybean crop will reach 171.5 million metric tons (mmt) for the season, up from previous forecasts 🌍.

📉 US Soybean Shipments Decline, Corn and Wheat Shipments Increase 🚢

US soybean shipments declined last week, with 1.7 million metric tons (62 million bushels) of soybeans inspected for export, a 3.5% drop from the previous week but an 18% increase compared to the same week last year 📦. Corn shipments were strong, totaling 1.1 million metric tons (44 million bushels), up 6.8% from the previous week and 18% higher than the same week last year 🌽. Wheat shipments increased to 298,075 metric tons (11 million bushels), up 20% from the previous week and 4.7% higher than last year’s shipments 🌾.

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0:00 Direct Payments?
3:46 Drier Argentina
5:23 "The Funds" and Corn
8:31 Brazil Deforestation
9:55 Mexican Cattle Imports Still Suspended

US Corn and Soybean Industry Groups Push for Financial Assistance
US corn and soybean industry groups are urgently seeking financial assistance for farmers. With Congress yet to release or vote on its year-end spending package, farm groups are pressing for legislation to provide economic support due to challenging market conditions and poor weather. Although Congressional leaders have indicated the package does not currently include aid for farmers, both groups are calling for renewed talks on a potential aid package. There may be fresh developments on the FARM Act today.

Argentina's Soybean Areas Face Dry Conditions
Some Argentina soybean areas are likely to experience below-normal rainfall over the next two weeks, particularly in the key northern areas of the Buenos Aires province 🌾. Soybean areas further north are expected to see more normalized rainfall, while Brazil will experience above-normal rainfall across most soybean-producing regions, except for far southern areas, which have already been too wet. These rainfall patterns are crucial for crop development, and further changes could impact overall yield forecasts. 

The Funds Increase Net-Long Position in Corn
Fund traders significantly increased their net-long position in the corn market last week, with the CFTC data showing that as of December 10, large money managers were net buyers of 92,000 corn contracts. This brings the total net-long position to 166,000 contracts, the largest since February 2023. Funds also bought 15,000 soybean contracts and 3,000 SRW wheat contracts on the week, reflecting bullish sentiment in the grain markets.

New Brazilian Laws Threaten Amazon Soy Moratorium
New laws in several Brazilian states, including Mato Grosso and Rondonia, may weaken soybean restrictions in the Amazon, particularly regarding the Amazon soy moratorium. This moratorium, established in 2006, bans companies from buying soybeans produced on deforested land after 2008. Environmental groups are strongly criticizing the new laws, which remove tax incentives for companies that comply with the moratorium. 

Mexican Cattle Imports Delayed Until Next Year
Mexican cattle imports are not expected to resume until next year. The USDA reported that shipments are likely to resume incrementally after the New Year, with full resumption expected later in the year 🐄. Imports were halted in November after the detection of New World screwworm in a cow near the Guatemalan border. The USDA is using $165 million from the Commodity Credit Corporation to help eradicate the pest in Mexico and Central America. 

USDA Flash Sale of Soybeans
The USDA reported a flash sale of 200,000mt (7 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.

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Brazilian Soybean Crop Estimate Increased
Conab, Brazil’s version of the USDA, has raised its estimate for the 2023/2024 Brazilian soybean crop to 166.2mmt, up slightly from its previous estimate and 12.5% higher than last season. Favorable growing conditions have boosted both planting progress and crop development. As of December 1, 90% of the expected soybean area had been planted. Soybean acres are projected to expand by 2.6%, reaching just over 117 million acres this season. 

US Soybean and Corn Export Sales Disappoint
US soybean and corn export sales were disappointing last week, with soybean sales falling well below expectations at 1.2 million metric tons (43 million bushels), a 49% drop from the previous week and 42% below the 4-week average. China was the largest soybean buyer for the week. Similarly, corn sales were also below expectations, at 946,900 metric tons (37 million bushels), a 45% decline from the previous week and 32% below the 4-week average. Colombia was the largest corn buyer. Wheat sales also lagged, totaling 290,200 metric tons (11 million bushels), 23% lower than the previous week.

Canada’s Potential Retaliation Against US Tariffs
Canada is considering export taxes on key commodities, such as uranium, oil, and potash, if President-elect Donald Trump imposes broad tariffs on Canadian imports. Canada is the largest foreign supplier of oil to the US and a key exporter of uranium for US nuclear plants. It also supplies potash, which is crucial for US agriculture. 

US Agriculture Sector Discusses Policies with Trump’s Team
The US agriculture sector is engaging with Donald Trump’s team to address concerns over his proposed policies, particularly around tariffs, trade, and immigration. Some agricultural groups are pushing for the expansion of the H-2A visa program to meet labor needs. There’s also a call for China to honor its commitment to purchase $50 billion annually in US agricultural products, as per the Phase One trade agreement. However, concerns remain about Trump’s tariffs, with many industry groups fearing negative impacts on trade and the broader economy. Similar to his first trade war, Trump is expected to provide financial aid to farmers to offset potential losses.

Summit Carbon Solutions Gets Approval for Pipeline
Summit Carbon Solutions has received approval from the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission to build 28 miles of carbon capture pipeline running from the North Dakota border to an ethanol plant in Fergus Falls, Minnesota. Construction is set to begin in 2026, pending finalization of right-of-way agreements with landowners along the route. Summit has already received permits in IA and ND and is reapplying in SD after initial rejection.

USDA Drought Monitor Data
The latest USDA drought monitor shows that drought conditions remain prevalent across the Corn Belt, with limited precipitation last week. Drought conditions worsened in portions of Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri, while conditions were mostly unchanged in other areas, including the High Plains. Notably, western Kansas saw an expansion of drought conditions. As of the most recent data:
57% of corn is affected by drought.
51% of soybeans are experiencing drought stress.
29% of winter wheat and 33% of spring wheat face drought.
41% of cattle are impacted by drought.

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0:00 Farmer Selling
2:35 China is "Prepared" for Trade War
6:10 Ethanol Production
7:22 Gold/Silver Tariff Implications
8:28 Inflation Update

Corn Futures Encounter Technical Resistance
Corn futures struggled on Wednesday to break through key technical resistance levels. The most heavily traded March 2025 contract stopped just 1 cent short of its October high before reverting lower. Anecdotal reports suggest a substantial amount of farmer selling occurred, which contributed to the price pullback. Despite this, ethanol plants and elevators posted weaker basis bids amid strength in the futures market. Private estimates indicate that fund traders were net buyers of 5,000 contracts on Wednesday after buying 30,000-35,000 contracts on Tuesday. Some estimates suggest large money managers could be net long as much as 150,000 contracts in real time.

Potential Second Trump Trade War: A Bigger Risk for US Grain Exports
Analysts believe that a second trade war with China could be more damaging than the first, especially for US soybean exports. During the first trade war, Chinese soybean purchases from the US dropped 79%, but China still relied on US supplies for certain needs. If a new trade war breaks out, however, China may completely shift to Brazilian soybeans and could bypass US soybeans entirely. Additionally, China is better prepared for another trade war, as it currently holds record soybean stocks. In recent years, China has also sought to reduce its reliance on US corn, approving the import of Brazilian and Argentine corn. 

US Ethanol Production Shows Modest Increase
US ethanol production increased slightly last week, with output reaching 1.08 million barrels per day, showing a small increase both from the previous week and compared to the same week last year. Ethanol stocks were reported at 22.6 million barrels, a 1.5% decrease from the previous week but a 5.6% increase from the same week last year. Implied gasoline demand rose by 1% compared to the previous week and 4.1% year-over-year. Over the last four weeks, implied US gasoline demand is up 1.1% compared to the same period last year.

Gold and Silver Premiums Surge Amid Tariff Concerns
Gold and silver premiums surged in New York on Wednesday, with gold futures for February delivery trading up to $60 an ounce above spot prices in London. Silver futures were more than $1 an ounce higher during the session. This spike in premiums was driven by short-covering by banks and funds, with concerns about the potential impact of 10% tariffs on precious metals. 

Consumer Prices Rise in November
US consumer prices rose by 2.7% in November on an annual basis, up from 2.6% in October. For the month, inflation climbed 0.3%, marking the largest monthly increase since April. Both figures were in line with expectations. Despite the uptick in inflation, traders are anticipating a 99% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point at their meeting next week. 

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🌽 Corn Futures Rally on USDA Report 📊

Corn futures rallied on Tuesday, driven by a friendly USDA report 📈. The nearby March 2025 corn contract gained more than 7 cents per bushel, closing at $4.49, its best close since early October 🌽. The USDA increased its projection for US corn exports by a whopping 150 million bushels, citing a strong sales pace. In addition, the USDA raised its forecast for corn demand via ethanol by 50 million bushels. As a result, the USDA reduced the 24/25 US carryout projection by 200 million bushels, signaling a tighter corn balance sheet 📉.

🌾 USDA's Bearish Soybean Projection Continues 📉

The USDA continues to project a burdensome soybean situation for the current marketing year 🌱. The government left its US soybean balance sheet unchanged, with Brazil's crop estimate remaining at 169 million metric tons (mmt) and Argentina's production estimate slightly increased to 52 mmt 🌍. The global supply and demand situation for soybeans is expected to be the 2nd most bearish on record, only behind the 2018/2019 marketing year. The stocks/use ratio is also expected to remain high, further indicating pressure on the soybean market 📉.

🇨🇳 China Prepares Stimulus Measures Amid US Tariffs 🏦

China is ready to implement stimulus measures to counter the effects of US trade tariffs 💰. In response, China will adopt a more relaxed monetary policy and proactive fiscal measures, marking a shift from its cautious approach of the past 14 years 📊. This policy change reflects China's willingness to take on higher debt levels and a rising debt-to-GDP ratio as it aims to stimulate growth 🏗️. These measures will prioritize consumption and high-tech manufacturing while managing risks. The extent of China’s policy will depend on the timing and scale of new US tariffs 🇺🇸.

💼 Trump's Tariffs May Not Be as Severe as Expected 📉

President-elect Donald Trump's tariffs may not have the far-reaching impact many have anticipated 💼. Leaders from Guggenheim Partners and Franklin Templeton suggest that Trump’s tariffs could be more of a negotiating tactic rather than universal and severe actions 🔄. Experts argue that these targeted tariffs may not trigger a full-scale trade war, and the negative impacts on the global economy are expected to be delayed due to the slow pace of policy implementation in Washington, D.C. 📅.

📊 US Inflation Likely Paused in November 📉

The downward trend in US inflation appears to have paused in November 📊. The CPI report is expected to show an annual inflation rate of 2.7%, up 0.1% from October 📈. On a monthly basis, inflation is anticipated to have risen 0.3%. Traders are still predicting a 77% chance that the Federal Reserve will lower rates by a quarter percentage point at next week’s meeting 🏦. However, some economists are concerned that Trump’s proposed tariffs could keep inflation elevated into 2025, potentially limiting the Fed’s ability to cut rates as expected 📊.

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0:00 Canada Tariff Threat
3:00 USDA Preview
4:50 Brazil Soybean Update
7:59 Russia Back and Forth
9:10 Grain Shipment Update
10:15 Trump and Beef Industry

Canada Warns of Retaliation Against US Tariffs-
Canada is preparing to retaliate if President-elect Donald Trump follows through with his plan to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian imports. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has made it clear that Canada will respond if the tariffs are enforced. In 2018, Canada retaliated to Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum by imposing tariffs on bourbon and Harley-Davidsons, which were effective enough to lead to the removal of those tariffs. 

USDA Crop Production Report to be Released Today-
The USDA will release its monthly Crop Production report today at 11:00am CST. Traders are expecting minimal changes to the US grain balance sheets. Some believe the USDA will increase its demand projections for US corn, particularly through exports and ethanol production, while others think the agency will delay adjustments until January. 

Brazilian Soybean Planting Nearing Completion-
Brazilian soybean planting is nearly complete, with 95% of the expected area already planted by last Thursday, up from 91% the previous week.  

Russian Wheat Crop Condition: Updated Outlook-
The Russian wheat crop may not be as poor as previously reported, according to a Russian analytical group that leaked data suggesting a high proportion of the crop was either in poor condition or hadn’t sprouted yet. However, Sovecon, a Russian consulting firm, stated that it is too early to assess the crop's condition, as increased temperatures linked to climate change have led to a delayed sprouting of many plants. 

US Soybean Shipments Decline, Still Above Last Year-
US soybean shipments declined last week, with 1.6 million metric tons (60 million bushels) of soybeans inspected for export, marking a 23% decrease from the previous week. However, shipments were still 62% higher than the same week last year. Corn shipments were strong, at 1 million metric tons (41 million bushels), up 10% from the prior week and 45% higher than the same week last year. Wheat shipments, however, fell below expectations, at 226,513 metric tons (8 million bushels), a 24% drop from the previous week.

US Beef Market Faces Further Constraints from Tariffs and Immigration Reform-
The US beef herd continues to shrink, driven by drought, rising input costs, and market volatility, with herd numbers at their lowest since 1961. This reduction has driven beef prices to record highs, and cattle markets have soared to all-time highs. If Trump imposes tariffs on beef or cattle imports, beef prices could rise even further. Additionally, Trump’s planned immigration reform could increase labor costs for meat packers, potentially impacting the beef market by pushing prices even higher.