Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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Grain Markets and Other Stuff episodes

  • 2-Day Corn Rally: Is USDA Wrong About Demand??

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    0:00 2-Day Corn Rally
    2:55 The Funds
    4:22 Russia Wheat Update
    7:25 Mexico to Negotiate
    8:50 World Food Prices

    ๐ŸŒฝ Corn Futures Rally on Friday ๐Ÿ“ˆ
    Corn futures rallied on Friday, with the most heavily traded March 2025 contract gaining 5 cents per bushel and posting its best daily close since November 20th. The rally is attributed to strong demand for US corn, particularly from both exports and ethanol production, which have outperformed expectations ๐ŸŒฑ. Farmers remain tight holders of their 2024 bushels, and end-users have had to increase basis bids to secure the corn they need ๐ŸŒพ. Private estimates suggest that fund traders were net buyers of 11,000 contracts of corn on Friday ๐Ÿ“Š.

    ๐Ÿ“Š CFTC Data: Funds Reduce Net-Long Position in Corn ๐ŸŒฝ
    According to the CFTCโ€™s Commitment of Traders data, large money managers were net sellers of 11,000 corn contracts last week ๐Ÿ“‰, indicating a reduction in their net-long position in the market. However, funds were net buyers of 13,000 soybean contracts ๐ŸŒฑ and net sellers of 10,000 contracts of SRW wheat ๐ŸŒพ during the same week. This shift in positions may signal potential changes in market dynamics for the coming weeks ๐Ÿง‘โ€๐Ÿ’ผ.

    ๐ŸŒพ Russian and Ukrainian Wheat Crop Projections ๐Ÿ“Š
    Russiaโ€™s 2025 wheat crop is projected to remain unchanged from this year, with an estimated 81.5 million metric tons (mmt), slightly up from this year's 81.3 mmt ๐ŸŒพ. Dry conditions that reduced this yearโ€™s crop production also led to a reduction in planting for next yearโ€™s crop, with damaged winter wheat likely to be replanted with spring wheat ๐ŸŒฑ. Meanwhile, Ukraineโ€™s wheat crop is projected to increase by 6%, with the 2025 crop estimated at 23.7 mmt, up from 22.4 mmt in 2024 ๐Ÿ“ˆ.

    ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico Responds to Trump's Tariff Threats ๐Ÿ“‰
    Mexico is seeking to negotiate in response to President-elect Donald Trumpโ€™s tariff threats ๐ŸŒŽ. Trumpโ€™s proposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada are aimed at curbing illegal immigration and drug trafficking. In response, Mexico has cracked down on drug smuggling from Asia, detained thousands of migrants, and seized a record amount of fentanyl ๐Ÿ’Š. Additionally, Mexico is planning to adopt an investment screening approach similar to the US, offering incentives for manufacturing investments, including the production of batteries for regional supply chains โšก.

    ๐Ÿ“ˆ Global Food Prices Surge to 18-Month High ๐ŸŒ
    Food prices have climbed to their highest level in over a year and a half, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization ๐Ÿ“Š. The food price index averaged 127.5 points in November, marking a 0.5% increase from October and a 5.7% increase from last year ๐ŸŒพ. The rise is largely driven by an increase in vegetable oil prices, which saw a 7.5% jump from the prior month, the largest increase since July 2022. Cereal prices declined by 2.7% due to a drop in global wheat prices ๐ŸŒพ.

    12 min
  • Have Wheat Futures Finally Found a Bottom??

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    ๐ŸŒพ Russiaโ€™s winter crops are facing significant challenges, with over 37% in poor conditionโ€”a record highโ€”and only 31% rated as good, the lowest in 23 years. Due to frosts โ„๏ธ and drought ๐ŸŒž, some winter crops will need to be replaced with spring crops ๐ŸŒฑ. Despite the poor conditions, Russiaโ€™s Deputy Prime Minister stated the situation isnโ€™t critical. However, the wheat harvest ๐Ÿž is expected to decline by 11% this year.

    ๐ŸŒฑ Corteva is looking to expand its presence in Brazil's genetically modified (GM) soybean seed ๐ŸŒพ market, aiming for 20โ€“30% market share with its Enlist E3 seeds by 2030. Although the seeds currently hold a negligible share in Brazil, they dominate nearly two-thirds of the US market ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ since their 2019 launch. Challenges in Brazil include competition with Bayer โš”๏ธ and economic struggles ๐Ÿ’ธ affecting farmersโ€™ ability to adopt new technologies. Year-to-date, Cortevaโ€™s shares ๐Ÿ“ˆ have risen by 29%.

    ๐Ÿ“Š US export sales of soybeans, while down 7% from the previous week, reached 2.3mmt (85M bushels), near the upper range of expectations. China ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ was the largest buyer. Corn ๐ŸŒฝ exports exceeded forecasts at 1.7mmt (68M bushels), up 63% from the prior week, with Mexico ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ as the largest buyer. Wheat ๐ŸŒพ sales were 378,200mt (14M bushels), led by Mexican purchases.

    ๐ŸŒจ๏ธ USDA drought data shows improved conditions in parts of the Corn Belt ๐ŸŒฝ, including Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin, due to snowfall. Slight improvements were also noted in northwest Minnesota, southeast Missouri, and eastern North Dakota, but the High Plains ๐ŸŒพ saw no significant changes. Drought remains widespread, affecting 54% of corn, 49% of soybeans, and 40% of cattle areas ๐Ÿ„.

    ๐Ÿ›’ The USDA reported a flash sale of 136,000mt (5M bushels) of soybeans to China ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Accumulated soybean sales are up 12% compared to the same period last year, signaling robust demand ๐Ÿ“ˆ.

    ๐Ÿ”” Stay Informed & Subscribe! For more updates on these key developments in global trade, agriculture, and energy, donโ€™t forget to LIKE ๐Ÿ‘, SUBSCRIBE ๐Ÿ””, and leave your thoughts in the COMMENTS below! Letโ€™s keep the conversation going! ๐Ÿ’ฌ

    11 min
  • Analysts are Dumb, There is No Crystal Ball (Grain Marketing)

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    0:00 Stock Market and Grain Marketing Comparison
    4:29 Bitcoin 100k
    6:02 Mexico Economic Problems
    7:46 Mexico GMO Ban?
    10:47 Russia Wheat Problems
    12:11 Ethanol Production Pace

    Stock Market Hits Record Highs
    The stock market reached new record highs on Wednesday! The Dow Jones climbed by 0.7%, surpassing the 45,000 mark for the first time. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq also set new records, gaining 0.6% and 1.3%, respectively. These gains were driven by a rally in technology stocks, alongside positive remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who stated that the US economy is in "remarkably good shape" and that potential risks in the labor market have subsided.ย 

    Bitcoin Soars Above $100,000
    Bitcoin traded above $100,000 for the first time early this morning! The world's most famous cryptocurrency has rallied more than 40% since Donald Trump's election in early November. Paul Atkins, a well-known crypto advocate, was appointed to chair the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) by Trump, sparking optimism in the crypto community. Additionally, significant money flows into Wall Streetโ€™s Bitcoin ETFs have added to the momentum.

    Mexico's Economic Outlook Deteriorates
    Mexicoโ€™s economic outlook is deteriorating, with 47% of Mexicans now believing the economy is in bad shape, an increase from 44% in October. The economic slowdown is becoming more apparent after only two months under the new administration. The situation could worsen if President-elect Donald Trump follows through with his proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican imports.

    Mexico and GM Corn Imports Dispute Nears Resolution
    Mexico is optimistic about a resolution to its dispute over genetically modified (GM) corn imports. The US had opposed Mexicoโ€™s attempt to limit these imports, claiming that the restrictions violated the USMCA agreement. The dispute resolution is expected by December 14, which could offer clarity on future trade relations between the two countries.

    Russiaโ€™s Winter Crops Face Record Poor Conditions
    Russiaโ€™s winter crops are facing the worst conditions on record, with a 37% of the crop in poor condition, the highest percentage ever recorded. In comparison, only 4% of last yearโ€™s crop was in poor condition at this time, and the five-year average is 8%. The cropโ€™s quality has significantly dropped, with only 31% rated in good condition, the lowest in 23 years.ย 

    US Ethanol Production Declines for the First Time in Over Two Months
    US ethanol production dropped by 4.1% last week to 1.07 million barrels per day, the first decline in more than two months. Despite this, production remains 6.1% higher than the same week last year. Ethanol stocks increased to 23 million barrels, a +1% increase compared to the previous week. Implied gasoline demand rose 2.7% compared to last week and 6.5% compared to last year, although US gasoline demand has been slightly down over the last four weeks.

    15 min
  • 45Z Confusion! Biofuel Investments at Risk

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    ๐ŸŒฟ 45Z Tax Credit Guidelines: Conflicting Reports and Uncertainty Ahead ๐Ÿ’ฐ

    Thereโ€™s confusion surrounding the 45Z tax credit guidelines, as Reuters and Bloomberg have released conflicting reports regarding their finalization. Reuters suggests that the US Treasury will not issue guidance before President Bidenโ€™s term ends due to disagreements between agricultural lobbyists and environmentalists over how the program should align with climate goals ๐ŸŒŽ. On the other hand, Bloomberg reports that a Treasury spokesperson confirmed the guidance would be issued before the end of Bidenโ€™s term, allowing eligible producers to claim 45Z tax credits for 2025 ๐Ÿ“…. The biofuel industry is urging lawmakers to extend blender credits, which are set to expire at the end of the year, hoping for clarity before the shift in administration ๐Ÿƒ.

    ๐ŸŒพ US Farmer Sentiment Surges After Election ๐Ÿ“Š

    US farmer sentiment hit its highest level in over three years following the presidential election ๐Ÿ“ˆ. The Purdue CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rose by 30 points in November, reaching 145, its highest since May 2021. The Future Expectations Index jumped by 37 points, reaching 161, its best since April 2021 ๐ŸŒฑ. Farmers are more optimistic about future regulations and taxes, but concerns remain over agricultural trade, with more than 40% of respondents believing that a trade war with China is likely under the Trump administration ๐Ÿ›’๐ŸŒ.

    ๐ŸŒ EU Delays Deforestation Law Amid Global Criticism ๐ŸŒณ

    The European Union has reached a tentative deal to delay its deforestation law, which aims to limit the import of products tied to deforestation ๐ŸŒ. The law requires importers to prove their goods, such as soy, beef, and coffee, are not linked to deforested areas ๐ŸŒฑ. Brazil, Indonesia, and other major agricultural producers have been critical of the law. The delay will provide time for European businesses and farmers to prepare before the law takes effect. The final adoption of the deal by EU member states and parliament is expected to be a formality by the end of the month ๐Ÿ“….

    ๐Ÿข ADM Focuses on Cost Reductions Amid Farm Economy Challenges ๐Ÿ’ผ

    ADM (Archer Daniels Midland) is implementing cost reduction measures as it faces ongoing challenges in the farm economy. The grain trader anticipates declining profits next year due to low crop prices ๐ŸŒพ. Additionally, uncertainty around biofuel regulations and the potential for a trade war between the US and China could weigh on ADM's profitability ๐Ÿ“‰. The company is also under investigation by the SEC and federal authorities over accounting errors in its Nutrition division ๐Ÿ“Š, contributing to a 25% drop in its stock this year ๐Ÿ’”.

    โšก Biden's Clean Energy Grants Total Over $100 Billion ๐ŸŒž

    President Biden has awarded $100 billion in clean energy grants through the Inflation Reduction Act, his signature climate legislation ๐ŸŒฑ. Over 80% of these grants have already been allocated, securing funding for projects like carbon capture, wind power, and solar energy โ˜€๏ธ. These funds aim to support the transition to clean energy, making it challenging for President-elect Donald Trump, a climate skeptic, to cancel them once he takes office ๐ŸŒ. The grants also include tax incentives for clean energy projects, which would require congressional action to reverse ๐Ÿ“œ.

    12 min
  • Soybean Prices are Down, but it's NOT Trump's Fault

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    ๐ŸŒฑ Record Brazilian Soybean Crop Projected ๐ŸŒพ

    Private consulting groups are forecasting a record Brazilian soybean crop for the 2023/2024 season. StoneX estimates the crop at 166.2 million metric tons (mmt), with exports reaching 103 mmt, while Celeres projects the crop to hit 170.8 mmt, with exports totaling 107 mmt ๐ŸŒŽ. The favorable growing conditions and high-quality inputs are driving this projection, although StoneX highlighted ongoing concerns over dryness in southern Brazil ๐ŸŒž. As of last Thursday, AgRural reported that 91% of the soybean area has been planted, up from 86% the previous week, and ahead of 85% planted at the same time last year ๐Ÿ“ˆ.

    ๐Ÿญ Cargill to Lay Off Thousands Amid Declining Profits ๐Ÿ’ผ

    Cargill, the global agricultural trading giant, announced plans to lay off 5% of its workforce, or around 8,200 workers, in response to financial pressures. The layoffs will mostly occur before the end of the year, impacting senior leaders but not top executives ๐Ÿšถ. Cargillโ€™s profits have been hit by record global corn and soybean crops and the declining US cow herd, which is at its lowest level in seven decades ๐Ÿ„. For fiscal 2024, Cargill reported a $2.48 billion profit, the lowest since 2016 ๐Ÿ“‰.

    ๐Ÿ’ผ ADMโ€™s Accounting Scandal Expands ๐Ÿ“Š

    The investigation into ADM's (Archer Daniels Midland) accounting errors has expanded. The SEC launched a civil probe earlier this year after the company revised its earnings twice due to discrepancies in its Nutrition division ๐Ÿ’ผ. ADM is facing accusations of inflating profits through manipulated intersegment transactions, which may have led to securities fraud ๐Ÿ’ธ. The company maintains that the errors didnโ€™t affect overall profits, but ADMโ€™s stock continues to struggle, now valued at about half of its 2022 peak ๐Ÿ“‰.

    ๐Ÿ“‰ Funds Reduce Net-Long Position in Corn Market ๐ŸŒฝ

    "The Funds" have reduced their net-long position in the corn market, with large money managers selling 23,000 corn contracts last week ๐Ÿ“‰. Additionally, funds were net sellers of 10,000 contracts of soybeans and 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat ๐ŸŒพ. The decline in corn futures reflects shifting sentiment in the market, and the reduced positions come as part of broader adjustments by institutional investors ๐Ÿ“‰.

    ๐Ÿ“ฆ US Soybean Shipments Decline, Still Strong Year-on-Year ๐Ÿ“Š

    US soybean shipments declined slightly last week, with 2.1 million metric tons (77 million bushels) inspected for export, a 1.4% decrease compared to the previous week. However, shipments remain +78% higher compared to the same week last year ๐ŸŒฑ. Corn shipments were down 7.2% from the previous week, and wheat shipments decreased by 19%. Despite these declines, both corn and wheat shipments were still higher than last year ๐Ÿ“ฆ.

    ๐ŸŒพ USDA Reports Flash Soybean Sale ๐Ÿšข

    US exporters reported a flash sale of 134,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ. While soybean sales started off weak this marketing year, they have since recovered and are now ranked as the sixth best in the last ten years, highlighting strong international demand for US soybeans ๐ŸŒŽ.

    11 min
  • New BRICS Currency?? Tariff Man Says NO

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    Trump Proposes Major Tariffs on BRIC Nations and North American Trade
    President-elect Donald Trump has proposed 100% tariffs on the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE) if they undermine the US dollar. These countries are looking to reduce their dependence on the US dollar, which currently dominates global currency exchanges at 58%. With the BRIC nationsโ€™ growing economic influence, this move could challenge the dollarโ€™s position in global trade.ย 

    Mexico Responds to Trumpโ€™s Tariff Threats
    Mexicoโ€™s President Claudia Sheinbaum clarified her conversation with Donald Trump after his threats to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. While Trump claimed Sheinbaum agreed to close Mexicoโ€™s southern border to migration, Sheinbaum emphasized that Mexico will continue its policy of keeping the border open and fostering positive bilateral relations. She also expressed confidence that a tariff war between the two countries would not take place.

    Brazilโ€™s Soybean Crop Expected to Break Records
    Agroconsult, a Brazilian consultancy, has forecasted a record-large soybean crop for the 2023/2024 season, estimating a 172.2 million metric tons (mmt) harvest. This would surpass last yearโ€™s record of 162.4 mmt by nearly 11%. USDA estimates a slightly smaller crop of 169 mmt, while Brazil's own Conab predicts 166.1 mmt. Brazilโ€™s soybean exports are also projected to hit a record 103.4 mmt, driven by favorable growing conditions and strong international demand.

    US Soybean and Corn Export Sales Soar
    US soybean export sales reached a marketing-year high, with 2.5 million metric tons (92 million bushels) sold last week. China remained the largest buyer, reflecting robust demand. Meanwhile, corn sales totaled 1.1 million metric tons (42 million bushels), though they were down 29% from the previous week. Mexico remained the largest buyer for US corn. Wheat sales came in at 366,800 metric tons (13 million bushels), showing a slight decline but still strong on the global stage.

    US Ethanol Production Hits Record High
    US ethanol production reached a record high last week, with an output of 1.12 million barrels per day. This marked the highest weekly output on record, surpassing the previous peak two weeks ago. Ethanol stocks also increased to 22.87 million barrels, reflecting strong production levels. Meanwhile, implied gasoline demand rose 1% compared to the previous week.

    Russia Reduces Wheat Export Quota to Combat Inflation
    Russia has cut its wheat export quota for the period from mid-February to June, reducing the limit to 11 million metric tons (mmt) โ€” a 62% decrease from last year. This move is designed to control domestic wheat supply amid bad weather and rising inflation, which is currently at 8.5% ๐Ÿ“Š. Russia will also raise its wheat export duty to 18% starting Wednesday. Despite these measures, Russia is still expected to export 47-52 mmt of wheat this season, retaining its position as the worldโ€™s top wheat exporter.

    USDA Flash Sales of Soybeans
    The USDA reported multiple flash sales of soybeans last week, including 132,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) to China and 991,700 metric tons (36 million bushels) to unknown destinations.

    15 min
  • Mexico Vows Tariff Retaliation - Corn Market Risk??

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    0:00 Housekeeping Notes
    1:08 Mexico Vows Retaliation
    3:16 China Buys More Brazilian Soybeans
    6:42 Dollar Strength
    8:14 Ceasefire
    9:27 Consumer Confidence

    ๐Ÿšจ Mexico Threatens Retaliatory Tariffs Against the US ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ๐Ÿ’ฅ
    Mexicoโ€™s President may impose retaliatory tariffs on the US if President-Elect Trump proceeds with his "day-one" tariff agenda ๐Ÿ“‰. Trump has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on all goods imported from Mexico in an effort to curb illegal migration and the flow of drugs across the US-Mexico border ๐ŸŒŽ๐Ÿšจ. President Claudia Scheinbaum warned that Mexico would respond to tariffs with additional measures, potentially risking vital trade relationships between the two nations ๐Ÿ’ผ. Mexico has been the top buyer of US corn this year, making such a move significant for both countries.

    ๐ŸŒพ China Secures Brazilian Soybeans Before Trump's Return to the White House ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ
    China is ramping up its soybean purchases from Brazil, securing more than half of its soybean needs for February to April at lower prices ๐Ÿ›’. China is also securing around 20% of its needs for May to June ahead of Trump's return to the White House ๐Ÿ›๏ธ. These purchases come despite higher prices for Brazilian soybeans during the December-January period, a time when the US typically dominates the global market ๐ŸŒพ. While China continues to buy US soybeans, outstanding soybean sales for this marketing year are at their lowest levels since 2018 ๐Ÿ“‰.

    ๐Ÿ’ต Dollar Surges on Trumpโ€™s Tariff Threats ๐Ÿ’ฐ
    Donald Trump's tariff threats have boosted the US dollar, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbing 0.7% on Tuesday ๐Ÿ“ˆ. This could lead to record highs for the dollar, surpassing levels seen in the 1980s. The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso both fell sharply, with the peso down by more than 2%.

    ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Ceasefire Deal Between Israel and Hezbollah ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ•Š๏ธ
    A ceasefire deal has been reached between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah militants after months of fighting, which started in October 2023. The deal was brokered by the US and France and went into effect early this morning โฐ. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu supports the ceasefire, as it allows Israel to focus on Iran's threats while continuing efforts to eliminate Hamas and secure the return of hostages ๐Ÿ•Š๏ธ.

    ๐Ÿ“Š US Consumer Confidence at Highest Level Since July 2023 ๐Ÿ›๏ธ
    US consumer confidence has surged to its highest point since July 2023, with the Conference Boardโ€™s index rising to 111.7 for November, up 2.1 points from October ๐Ÿ“Š. This increase reflects a more favorable outlook on the economy and labor market following Trump's election victory ๐Ÿ—ณ๏ธ.

    ๐Ÿ”” Stay Updated & Subscribe!
    For more updates on these developments, donโ€™t forget to LIKE ๐Ÿ‘, SUBSCRIBE ๐Ÿ””, and leave your thoughts in the COMMENTS below! Let's keep the conversation going! ๐Ÿ’ฌ

    12 min
  • "Tariff Man" Talks More Tariffs - Corn/Soybean Impact??

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    Trumpโ€™s New Tariff Plans and Their Impact on Trade
    Donald Trump is taking bold steps to address migration and drug trade concerns by imposing additional tariffs. Trump plans to add a 10% tariff on imported goods from China and 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada. The tariffs are part of a broader effort to discourage migration and curb drug trafficking. These new tariffs would complement his earlier plans for 60% tariffs on Chinese imports and 20% on global imports.

    US Winter Wheat Conditions Improve with Rainfall
    US winter wheat conditions improved dramatically last week thanks to recent rainfall across the High Plains. The crop is now rated 55% good to excellent, a marked improvement from 49% the prior week and 45% on average. The 17% improvement since the end of October is the best for this time of year since 2018. Only 12% of the crop is rated poor to very poor, down from 23% last month.

    Brazil Soybean Planting Near Completion
    Brazil's soybean planting is nearing completion, with 86% of the expected area already planted by last Thursday. This is up from 80% the previous week and significantly ahead of last yearโ€™s pace of 74%.ย 

    US Halts Mexican Cattle Imports Due to Screwworm Discovery
    The US has halted Mexican cattle imports after the discovery of New World screwworm in a cow near the Guatemalan border in Chiapas, Mexico. This parasite causes severe infections and can infest both animals and humans. As Mexico is the largest source of US cattle imports, this halt is expected to dramatically reduce the supply of feeder cattle, sending futures soaring to their highest levels since July. Imports from Mexico, which were up 21.3% this year, are expected to be restricted for at least the next month.

    Coffee Futures Surge Amid Supply Concerns
    Coffee futures saw a significant surge on Monday, with Arabica coffee climbing 3% to its highest level since 1997. Robusta futures also hit their highest since the 1970s. Concerns over supply shortages in Brazil and Vietnam are driving prices up. While Brazil experienced heavy rains in October, earlier hot and dry conditions have damaged coffee trees, impacting the upcoming season's production. The USDA forecasts Brazilโ€™s coffee stockpiles to fall 26% by the end of the season, exacerbating concerns.

    Scott Bessent Expected to Soften Trumpโ€™s Economic Policies
    Financial markets reacted positively to Scott Bessentโ€™s appointment as US Treasury Secretary. Bessent, the founder of Key Square Group, is expected to advocate for a more gradual use of tariffs and a focus on economic growth through regulation reduction. His appointment has led to a rise in currencies worldwide, with investors anticipating a softer stance on some of Trump's more extreme economic policies.ย 

    US Soybean and Corn Export Sales Update
    US soybean shipments declined last week, with 2.1 million metric tons (77 million bushels) inspected for export, a 7.3% drop from the previous week. However, they are still +34% higher compared to the same week last year. On the other hand, corn exports soared, reaching 903,049 metric tons (36 million bushels), which is +115% higher than last year. Wheat exports were also strong, with 360,513 metric tons (13 million bushels) sold, a +25% increase from the same week last year.

    14 min
  • China, Mexico, and US Corn Export Sales - Could You Imagine????

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    ๐Ÿšข Mexico's Bold Port Expansion Despite Trade Concerns ๐ŸŒŽ

    Mexico is moving forward with a $2.7 billion port expansion at the Port of Manzanillo, aiming to more than double its capacity ๐Ÿšข. This expansion will place it among the top 20 container ports globally ๐ŸŒ. The port handles goods from over 140 countries, focusing on automotive, agricultural, and steel products. However, there are concerns from the US and Canada that Mexico could become a conduit for China to bypass trade restrictions and enter North America ๐Ÿšซ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ. Donald Trump has indicated that he plans to impose tariffs on imports from China and Mexico, including a 20% tariff on all goods and a 60% tariff on Chinese imports ๐Ÿ“‰. Trump has also suggested tariffs of over 200% on imported cars from Mexico ๐Ÿš—.

    ๐ŸŒฑ Trump Appoints Brooke Rollins to Lead USDA ๐ŸŒพ

    Brooke Rollins has been appointed by Donald Trump to lead the USDA. This surprise choice comes after significant debates among Trump's advisors and agricultural groups ๐Ÿ›๏ธ. Although Rollins has deep ties to Trump and grew up on a farm, she has less agricultural policy experience compared to other candidates. As Secretary of Agriculture, Rollins will play a critical role in shaping agricultural policy, farm subsidies, and trade decisions, including Trumpโ€™s proposed tariffs ๐Ÿž๏ธ๐Ÿฝ๏ธ.

    ๐ŸŒฝ Funds Increase Net-Long Position in Corn Market ๐Ÿ’ผ

    "The Funds" have ramped up their net-long position in the corn market, as large money managers bought 7,000 corn contracts last week ๐Ÿ“ˆ. This brings their total net purchases to 463,000 contracts since July. The corn market remains strong amid solid demand, and fund managers continue to stay bullish ๐ŸŒฝ. On the other hand, soybeans and SRW wheat saw net selling activity last week ๐Ÿ“‰.

    ๐ŸŒฑ Brazilโ€™s Soybean Planting Surges Ahead ๐ŸŒพ

    Brazilian soybean planting has made rapid progress, with 83.3% of the expected area already planted ๐Ÿง‘โ€๐ŸŒพ, compared to 74.7% last year at this time. Adequate rainfall in recent weeks has accelerated planting, alleviating earlier concerns about dryness ๐ŸŒง๏ธ. With planting well ahead of schedule, Brazil is on track to produce another bumper soybean crop ๐Ÿ“Š.

    ๐Ÿ„ High Cattle On-Feed Numbers Reported ๐Ÿ„

    Cattle on feed in the US remains high, with 12 million head as of November 1, matching pre-report expectations ๐Ÿ“‰. Placements in October were 105.3% of year-ago levels, reflecting higher placements due to ongoing drought conditions in cattle regions ๐Ÿ‚. Despite this, marketings were lower than expected, with 104.7% of year-ago levels, indicating market stability in the face of strong demand.

    ๐ŸŒพ USDA Flash Sale of Soybeans ๐Ÿ“ฆ

    On Friday, the USDA reported a flash sale of 198,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year ๐ŸŒ. Since November, unknown destinations have bought 1.2 million metric tons (44 million bushels) of US soybeans through flash sales, indicating continued strong demand for US agricultural exports ๐ŸŒพ๐Ÿ“ฆ.

    12 min
  • John Deere Earnings Confirm Farm RECESSION

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    ๐Ÿ“ˆ John Deere Surges Despite Lower Earnings ๐Ÿšœ
    John Deere's stock soared 8% on Thursday, following better-than-expected earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter. Despite adjusted earnings per share coming in at $4.55 (higher than the expected $3.87), they were still down significantly from last year's $8.26. Revenue for the quarter dropped 28% to $11.1 billion, but still exceeded the forecast of $9.2 billion. Looking ahead, net income for fiscal 2025 is expected to range between $5 billion and $5.5 billion, down from $7.1 billion in fiscal 2024. Deereโ€™s stock is up 9% year-to-date ๐Ÿ“Š.

    ๐ŸŒฑ Soybean Futures Face Pressure ๐ŸŒ
    Soybean futures are under pressure, with the Jan25 contract hovering near life-of-contract lows ๐Ÿ“‰. Recent negative headlines, combined with favorable weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina, and global oversupply, are contributing to the bearish sentiment. Additionally, concerns over a potential US-China trade war have added to the uncertainty in the market ๐ŸŒพ.

    ๐ŸŒพ US Soybean Export Sales Surge ๐ŸŒ
    US soybean export sales showed improvement last week, surpassing pre-report expectations with 1.9 million metric tons (68 million bushels) sold ๐Ÿ›ณ๏ธ. This represents a +20% increase compared to the previous week, though it is still -7% below the 4-week average. China was the largest buyer, continuing its strong demand for US soybeans ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ. On the other hand, corn sales and wheat sales saw mixed results, with corn sales up 14% from the prior week but down 40% from the 4-week average ๐ŸŒฝ.

    ๐ŸŒง๏ธ USDA Drought Monitor Update ๐ŸŒพ
    The USDA released new drought data, showing improvement in many areas of the Corn Belt following last week's rainfall ๐ŸŒง๏ธ. The overall drought conditions have improved significantly, with only 50% of the region still experiencing some form of drought, down from 74% at the end of October ๐ŸŒฝ. Oklahoma and parts of the High Plains also saw improvements in drought conditions ๐ŸŒพ.

    ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Argentinaโ€™s Soybean and Corn Planting Progress ๐Ÿšœ
    Argentina is seeing rapid progress in its soybean planting, with nearly 36% of the expected 46 million acres already planted ๐ŸŒฑ. The good surface moisture has helped speed up the planting process, with early-planted soybeans showing excellent growth ๐ŸŒฟ. In addition, corn planting has reached 39.4% of the expected acreage, and 29.3% of the wheat crop has already been harvested ๐ŸŒพ.

    ๐Ÿšจ Flash Sales on Soybeans and Meal ๐ŸŒ
    USDA reported multiple flash sales on Thursday, including:
    198,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) of soybeans to China ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.
    135,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations ๐ŸŒŽ.
    133,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal to the Philippines ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ญ.
    These sales highlight continued strong demand for US agricultural products ๐Ÿ“ฆ.

    ๐Ÿ”” Stay Updated & Subscribe!
    For more market updates, don't forget to LIKE ๐Ÿ‘, SUBSCRIBE ๐Ÿ””, and share your thoughts in the COMMENTS below ๐Ÿ’ฌ! Letโ€™s keep the conversation going! ๐ŸŒ๐Ÿ“Š

    21 min

About Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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Joe Vaclavik and Mackenzie Johnston discuss the grain markets, the business of farming, news related to agriculture, and a variety of other topics.

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