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🌱 Biden Administration to Release 45Z Tax Credit Guidance Today 💼

The Biden administration plans to release short-term 45Z tax credit guidance today 📆. However, the Trump administration will make the final ruling on the tax credit once he takes office 🏛️. The credit was set to become effective on January 1, but the lack of guidance from the US Treasury has threatened the program’s activation 🛑. Biden's administration believes companies can follow the interim guidance, but any final rule will depend on Trump's decisions 💰. Wintry weather in Washington, DC, and the funeral of former President Jimmy Carter may delay the guidance release ⏳.

📊 USDA Monthly Crop Production & WASDE Report Today 📅

USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report today at 11am CST 🗓️. The quarterly Grain Stocks report will be released alongside the monthly report 📉. Analysts expect a small reduction in the size of the 2024 US corn and soybean crops 🌽🌱. If realized, this could lead to reduced carryout projections. US corn stocks as of December 1st are expected to be down less than 1% from last year, while soybean stocks are projected to be up 8% and wheat stocks up 10% 🌾. Stay tuned for key updates from the USDA report 📊.

🌧️ Argentina’s Crops Need Moisture ☀️

Argentina's corn and soybean crops are experiencing stress due to hot and dry weather 🌞. According to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange, rainfall is expected to arrive next week 🌧️, with 2 to 3 inches of rain forecasted for January 16-22 ⏳. About 92% of both soybean and corn crops have been planted, and the much-needed rain will help the crops through their critical stages 🌱. The wheat harvest in Argentina is nearly complete, with an estimated production of 18.6 million metric tons (mmt) 🌾.

🌍 La Niña Officially Arrives 🌦️

La Niña has officially formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean 🌊, though later and weaker than expected. This weather pattern is usually associated with drier conditions across the southern and western US as well as South America 🌎. La Niña increases the risk of drought in agricultural regions of Argentina and Brazil 🌾. However, the weakness of the pattern suggests the impacts may not be as severe this time ⚖️. La Niña is expected to persist through April, with a 60% chance it will fade between March and May, shifting to ENSO-neutral 🌐.

🌧️ Winter Storm Brings Relief to Drought-Stricken Areas 🌀

The USDA weekly drought monitor reported improvements in drought conditions following a winter storm that moved across the Corn Belt last week ❄️. The storm brought much-needed precipitation to areas like eastern Ohio, northern Indiana, northeast Missouri, and northern and eastern Illinois 🌧️. Significant snowfall also helped improve drought conditions in northeast Kansas 🌨️. Despite these improvements, drought remains a concern in several areas, including corn, soybeans, and spring wheat production 🌽🌾. 

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0:00 National Emergency and Tariffs
2:57 USDA Preview
6:45 Argentina Rains Expected
8:01 Brazil Update
9:33 Ethanol Production is Strong
10:31 Flash Sale

📈 US Dollar and Bond Yields Rise Amid Economic Concerns 💵
The US dollar and bond yields continued their upward trend on Wednesday 📈. The 10-year US Treasury note yield rose to 4.73%, its highest level since April, while the dollar index increased 0.28% to 109.00, slightly below last week's two-year high of 109.54 📊. The rise in the dollar and yields followed a CNN report suggesting that Donald Trump might declare a national economic emergency to push forward his broad tariff policies.

🌾 USDA's Crop Report and Grain Stocks Release on Friday 📅
The USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports on Friday 📊. Analysts expect a small reduction in the size of the 2024 US corn and soybean crops, which could lead to reduced carryout projections if realized 🌽🌱. US corn stocks as of December 1st are expected to be down less than 1% year-on-year, while soybean stocks are forecast to be up about 8% and wheat stocks up about 10% 🌾. 

🌧️ Argentina Forecasted to Receive Rainfall 🌦️
Argentina is expected to receive substantial rainfall over the next couple of weeks 🌧️. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange predicts that Argentina's key farming region will receive 2 to 3 inches of rain in mid-January 🌧️. This comes after dry conditions linked to La Niña have begun to impact crops. Water reserves in major farming areas have been at critical levels following below-normal rainfall in December. The forecasted rainfall will help crops reach February, when rainfall typically resumes 🌱.

🌞 Dry Conditions Affecting Soybean Crops in Brazil 🇧🇷
Dry conditions are starting to impact soybean crops in southern Brazil 🌞. Parts of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil's southernmost state, have gone 15 to 20 days without significant rainfall 🌾. The state's northwestern region is expected to remain dry for another 12 to 15 days, though the situation is not yet critical 🚨. Meteorologists expect more consistent rainfall by late January, with frequent rains continuing through February, which could improve the crop situation 🌧️. Meanwhile, Central Brazil is forecast to receive heavy rainfall, which may interfere with the early soybean harvest 🌱.

⛽ US Ethanol Production Declines Slightly 📉
US ethanol production decreased last week for the first time in a month 📉. Weekly output dropped by 1% to 1.1 million barrels per day, though it was still 5.1% higher compared to the same week last year 🌽. Ethanol stocks increased by 2.2% compared to the prior week and were up 2.4% from the same week in 2023 📊. Meanwhile, implied gasoline demand was up 3.8% from the previous week but down 5.9% from the same week last year 🚗. Over the last four weeks, implied US gasoline demand is down slightly compared to last year 📉.

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0:00 Re-Inflation and Grain Prices
4:15 Argentina
7:46 Farmer Sentiment
9:29 Ethanol Exports Spike
11:12 Ag Startup Valuation
12:11 Corn Flash

Stock Market Tumbles Amid Inflation Concerns
The stock market took a hit on Tuesday with the Dow Jones dropping 0.4%, the S&P 500 declining 1.1%, and the Nasdaq falling 1.9%. The continued resilience of the economy has pushed back expectations for when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates this year. Additionally, concerns are rising that President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans could lead to inflationary pressures.

USDA Optimistic About Argentina’s Soybean Crop
USDA's Argentina office is maintaining a positive outlook for the country’s soybean crop. The crop forecast remains steady at 52 million metric tons (mmt), with an increase in soybean acres and ideal growing conditions contributing to this stable projection. La Niña conditions may pose a risk to yields, but record-high soybean crush of 42 mmt is expected, driven by strong exports and consistent crush rates. 

US Farmer Sentiment Declines Slightly in December
US farmer sentiment dropped slightly in December, with the Purdue CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index falling to 136, a 9-point decline from November. Despite this, the index remains at its highest level since August 2021. The slight dip is attributed to farmers' concerns about farm conditions and the agriculture industry, but they remain optimistic about the future, particularly after the presidential election. The potential for a trade war under Trump's administration is a rising concern, with 48% of farmers now believing a trade war is either likely or very likely, up from 42% in November.

US Ethanol Exports Surge in November
US ethanol exports saw a major boost in November, climbing to 187.6 million gallons, a 31% increase from October. 2024 exports are on track to surpass 1.9 billion gallons, which would represent 12% of US ethanol production and set a new record. The surge is largely driven by strong growth in key markets like Canada, India, and the European Union. While exports of dried distillers grains fell 15% in November, they were still 14% higher than the same time last year.

Inari Agriculture’s Valuation Soars
Inari Agriculture, an agtech startup, has seen its valuation skyrocket in 2024. The company raised $144 million in new funding, increasing its valuation by 32% to $2.17 billion. Inari develops wheat, corn, and soybeans that require less fertilizer, water, and land, providing sustainable solutions for farmers. The additional funding will help Inari expand its innovative solutions and strengthen its position in the agriculture tech space.

USDA Reports Flash Sale of Corn
The USDA reported a flash sale of 110,000 metric tons (4 million bushels) of corn to Colombia for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.

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0:00 Analysts are Bearish Soybeans
2:56 Trump Tariff Talk
4:25 The Funds
7:41 South American Weather
9:34 Grain Shipments
10:38 Bird Flu

Analysts Warn Soybeans Could Fall Below $9 Amid US/China Trade Tensions
Rabobank analysts warn that soybean prices could drop below $9 per bushel if a new US/China trade war erupts. They believe that China would retaliate with its own tariffs on US grains and oilseeds if President-elect Donald Trump proceeds with his aggressive tariff plan. This could give Brazil an even stronger position in the Chinese market, as they would likely benefit from reduced US soybean exports. 

Trump Denies Softening Stance on Tariffs
President-elect Trump denied claims that he might adopt a softer approach to tariffs. On Monday, Trump dismissed a Washington Post article suggesting that his tariff plan might focus only on sectors critical to national security. This would have been a significant shift from the tariffs he promised during his presidential campaign.

Funds Increase Net-Long Position in Corn
The Funds have substantially increased their net-long position in corn futures. According to CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders data, as of Tuesday, December 31, large money managers were net buyers of 58,000 corn contracts. Funds were also net buyers of 29,000 soybean contracts and 12,000 SRW wheat contracts during the week.

Weather Relief for Brazil and Argentina
Extended weather forecasts provide some relief for portions of southern Brazil and northern Argentina, which have been experiencing dry conditions. Both the Euro and GFS models agree that these regions will remain mostly dry through the next 10 days. However, rain chances are expected to return during the 10-16 day period, with some normal rainfall possible between 15-28 days. This has impacted soybean meal futures, which closed lower on Monday and continued trading lower early this morning.

US Export Shipments in Line with Expectations
US corn shipments were in line with expectations last week, with 847,463 metric tons (33 million bushels) inspected for export. However, this was 6.6% lower compared to the previous week and 22% below the same week last year. Soybean shipments came in at 1.3 million metric tons (47 million bushels), down 22% from the prior week but up 23% compared to last year. Wheat shipments exceeded expectations at 412,342 metric tons (15 million bushels), up 22% from the previous week but down 18% from last year.

First US Human Fatality from Bird Flu Confirmed
The US has confirmed its first human fatality from bird flu, a case involving an individual with underlying health conditions over the age of 65 in Louisiana. There have been 61 human bird flu cases nationwide. The majority of cases have occurred among farmworkers in California and Washington who had contact with infected poultry or dairy cows.

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🌞 Argentina's Hot and Dry Weather Impacting Crops 🌱
Hot and dry conditions in Argentina are starting to take a toll on the corn and soybean crops 🌾. While both crops experienced ideal growing conditions during spring thanks to abundant rainfall, high temperatures and reduced rainfall at the end of December are now affecting their development ☀️. The Rosario Grains Exchange reported that some areas received only 30% of their average rainfall in December 🌧️. Despite these challenges, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange stated that the crops are still progressing well due to moisture earlier in 2024. However, Argentina is expected to remain hot and dry over the next two weeks, which could further stress crops 🌞.

🇨🇳 China Adds US Companies to Export Control List 🔒
China has added 28 US companies to its export control list, preventing them from exporting dual-use items (products that can be used for both civilian and military purposes) to China 📉. The exact enforcement details and which products will be classified as dual-use remain unclear 🔍. Additionally, China imposed sanctions on 10 defense firms related to military sales to Taiwan 🇹🇼. These sanctions are expected to have little impact as US military companies do not sell arms or related goods to China 💡. These actions are seen as a response to the anticipated tougher US policies against China under President-elect Donald Trump 🤔.

💵 US Dollar Index Hits Two-Year High 📈
The US dollar index reached its highest level in over two years last week, rising 0.8% against a basket of currencies as the new trading year began 📊. The strength in the dollar is attributed to investor optimism about Donald Trump’s return to the White House, as they expect lower taxes and deregulation to boost economic growth, consumer spending, and business investment 💰. However, analysts caution that the US dollar could face a correction, with only two quarter-point rate cuts expected this year and the potential for negative US economic data 📉.

📉 US Export Sales Disappoint in Latest Report 🌽
US export sales were underwhelming last week, with net corn sales falling below expectations at 777,000 metric tons (31 million bushels) 🌽, a 55% decrease compared to the previous week and 44% below the 4-week average 📊. Mexico was the largest corn buyer for the week 🇲🇽. Net soybean sales also fell short of expectations, declining to a marketing year low of 484,700 metric tons (18 million bushels) 🌱, a 51% drop from the previous week and 67% lower than the 4-week average 📉. China was the largest soybean buyer 🇨🇳. Net wheat sales also missed expectations, coming in at 140,600 metric tons (5 million bushels) 🌾, down 77% from the previous week and 68% from the 4-week average 📉.

⚡ US Renewable Diesel and Biofuel Production Up in October 🔋
US renewable diesel and biofuel production increased in October, with renewable diesel producers using 77% of their capacity, the highest since July 🌱. Biodiesel producers utilized 89% of their capacity, marking the highest level since June 2023 🔋. The increase in production is attributed to improved margins, which were boosted by higher tax credit values and stronger demand 🚗. 

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🌽 Corn and Soybean Futures Close Higher 📈
Corn and soybean futures saw strong performances on Thursday, with the Mar25 soybean contract breaking above technical resistance on Tuesday and closing higher again on Thursday 🌱. The Mar25 corn contract also posted its best close since late June 📊. However, anecdotal reports suggest that US farmers continue to sell corn and soybeans into the rally as spreads and basis have weakened 🌽. This indicates a more balanced market despite the price gains 📉.

🇧🇷 StoneX Increases Brazil’s Soybean Crop Estimate 🌾
StoneX has raised its outlook for Brazil’s soybean crop to 171.4 million metric tons (mmt), a 3.1% increase from its previous estimate 🌱. This revision is driven by expected increases in planted acreage and improved yields 🌞. The forecasted crop would be 14.4% larger than last season's, with Brazilian soybean exports expected to rise by nearly 4% this season to 107mmt 🇧🇷. USDA has the crop pegged at 169mmt, while Conab (Brazil's government agency) estimates it at 166.2mmt. Additionally, StoneX also increased its forecast for Brazil’s corn crop to 128.6mmt 🌽.

🌞 Dry Weather Threatens Parts of Argentina’s Soybean Crop 🇦🇷
Portions of Argentina’s soybean-growing regions are likely to remain dry in the coming weeks 🌞. While areas of Cordoba and San Luis received some rainfall, Santa Fe and northern Buenos Aires remain mostly dry 🌾. The forecast calls for continued dry conditions in northern Argentina and southern Brazil, which represent a significant portion of the soybean output 🌍. Southern Brazil contributes about 30% of the country's soybean production, while the dry areas in Argentina account for 20-25% of its soybean output 🌱.

🐄 Cattle Futures Soar Amid Wintry Weather Forecast ❄️
Cattle futures surged on Thursday, reaching life-of-contract highs amid forecasts of wintry weather across the Plains. This rally is driven by a shortage of feeder cattle, as the US beef cowherd has fallen to its lowest level in seven decades 🐄. Resilient consumer demand has also supported cattle prices. However, there are concerns that heavy snowfall and freezing temperatures next week could affect fat cattle performance, as wintry weather last year caused fat cattle weights to decline by 3% 📉.

🌧️ USDA Weekly Drought Monitor: Precipitation Brings Relief 🌧️
The latest USDA drought monitor revealed that much of the Corn Belt received substantial precipitation last week 🌽. Some areas reported rainfall amounts ranging from 200% to 600% above normal 🌧️, leading to improved drought conditions across Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois 🌱. Slight improvements were also observed in Wisconsin and Minnesota 🌾. Precipitation was widespread across the High Plains, but rainfall was not significant enough to warrant substantial drought improvement in those areas 🌾.

📈 Stock Market Soars in 2024 🚀
The S&P 500 had an exceptional year in 2024, gaining 23.3% 📊, marking its second consecutive year with annual gains surpassing 20% 📈. This follows a 24.2% gain in 2023. The Dow Jones rose 12.9% in 2024, while the Nasdaq surged 28.6% 🚀. Several factors contributed to the strong market performance, including the growth of AI technology, Donald Trump's presidential victory, and the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by a full percentage point.

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📈 Funds Increase Net-Long Position in Corn Futures 🌽
The Funds have increased their net-long position in the corn market, according to CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders data 📊. As of Tuesday, December 24, large money managers were net buyers of 8,000 corn contracts 🌽. Additionally, funds were net buyers of 3,000 soybean contracts and net sellers of 12,000 SRW wheat contracts for the week 🥖. This shift highlights a more bullish outlook for corn amidst broader market dynamics 📈.

🌾 Corn and Soybean Futures Rally Before Late Selloff 📉
Corn futures rallied yesterday, with the March 2025 corn contract hitting a high of $4.58 per bushel before closing lower 🌽. This was the highest trade since June 25th 📅. The March 2025 soybean contract also rallied but faced trend resistance near $10.04, ultimately closing at $9.92 🌱. While holiday markets tend to be slower, increased farmer selling amid the rally, especially in corn, has played a role in the price action 📉.

🌦️ Dry Weather Forecast for Brazil and Argentina 🌾
Moisture deficits are expected in some areas of Brazil and Argentina over the next two weeks 🌞. Southern Brazil, Uruguay, and northeast Argentina are forecast to receive well-below-normal rainfall 🌧️. In particular, Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, key soybean-growing regions in southern Brazil, are expected to see rainfall less than 35% of normal 🌾. Even drier conditions are projected for parts of northeast Argentina, raising concerns about crop development 🌱.

🚢 US Corn Shipments Decline, Soybean and Wheat Shipments Rise 📦
US corn shipments saw a decline last week, with 878,380 metric tons (35 million bushels) inspected for export, down 23% from the previous week but up 54% from the same week last year 🌽. Soybean shipments were strong at 1.6 million metric tons (58 million bushels), down 12% from the prior week but up 62% compared to the same week last year 🌱. Wheat shipments also increased, reaching 337,685 metric tons (12 million bushels), which was 17% lower than the previous week but 22% higher than last year 🌾.

🏭 ADM Faces Shareholder Pressure Amid Investigation 🧐
ADM is facing shareholder criticism after the company’s stock has fallen by about 30% this year, marking its largest decline since the 2008 financial crisis 📉. Hartwig Fuchs, an ADM shareholder and former executive, has called for the CEO’s resignation, citing failures to address the company’s declining stock value. ADM disclosed an investigation into its nutrition division’s accounting practices in January, and further errors were found in November. Fuchs is urging the CEO to offer clearer explanations to rebuild investor trust 📊.

📦 Flash Sale of Soybean Oil 🌱
The USDA reported a flash sale of soybean oil on Monday 📦. US exporters sold 23,000 metric tons of soybean oil to India for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year 🇮🇳. Since the beginning of the year, 174,000 metric tons of soybean oil have been sold through flash sales 🌾.

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0:00 Export Sales
2:35 Ethanol Production
5:38 Argentina Update / Weather
6:57 Brazil Update / Weather
8:32 Russia Wheat Problems
9:56 US Dollar is Strong

US Corn Exports Surge, Soybean Sales Fall
US corn export sales surged last week, surpassing expectations with 1.7 million metric tons (67 million bushels) of corn sold. This was a 46% increase from the previous week and 39% higher than the 4-week average. Mexico was the largest corn buyer for the week. On the other hand, soybean sales dropped to a marketing year low at 978,400 metric tons (36 million bushels), falling 31% from the previous week and 47% from the 4-week average. China was the largest soybean buyer for the week. Wheat sales exceeded expectations with 612,400 metric tons (23 million bushels) sold, a 34% increase from the previous week. Mexico was the largest wheat buyer.

US Ethanol Production Continues Strong
US ethanol production remained robust last week, with weekly output of 1.11 million barrels per day, showing a 3.4% increase compared to the same week last year. Ethanol stocks rose to 23.07 million barrels, a 2% increase from the prior week. Implied gasoline demand was also up by 1% compared to the previous week and 3% compared to the same week last year. Over the past four weeks, implied US gasoline demand has risen by 3.5% compared to the same period last year.

Argentina’s Corn and Soybean Acreage Adjustments
The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange has revised its outlook for Argentina’s corn and soybean acres. Corn acreage is now projected at 16.3 million acres, nearly 5% higher than the previous estimate. However, soybean acreage was reduced by 1.1%, now projected at 45.5 million acres, as farmers shift to more profitable crops.

Brazil’s Soybean Crop Estimate Increased
The USDA's Brazil attaché office has raised its Brazil soybean production estimate to 165mmt, citing timely planting and favorable early rainfall. The updated estimate is 2.3% higher than last season’s crop. CONAB, Brazil’s government agency, is forecasting the crop at 166.2 mmt, while the USDA projects 169 mmt.

Russia’s Winter Wheat Conditions Deteriorating
The condition of Russia’s winter wheat crops is forecast to worsen in January due to warmer-than-average temperatures and excess precipitation. This has led to weakened sprouts. While crop conditions in southern Russia are expected to be average, soil moisture remains low, posing risks to yields.

US Dollar Strengthens Amid Economic Growth and Tariff Concerns
The US dollar is on track to post its strongest annual gain in nearly a decade, rising over 7% this year, according to the Bloomberg Spot Index. The dollar's strength is attributed to the robust US economy, which has reduced expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts. Additionally, Trump’s tariff threats have boosted expectations for the dollar’s performance, making it a key focus in global markets.

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🌾 Grain and Oilseed Complex Rally on Thursday 📈

The grain and oilseed complex saw a notable rally on Thursday, with the soybean meal market leading the charge, gaining a whopping 4.4% 📊. Soybean futures finished sharply higher, while soybean oil ended marginally lower 🌱. The March 2025 corn contract gained 5 cents per bushel, posting its best close since June 25th 🌽. Wheat futures saw marginal gains, although they remain stuck in a sideways pattern 📉. This rally reflects strong market dynamics in the broader grain complex.

🌞 Argentina’s Dry Weather Forecast 🌾

Argentina is set to experience dry weather in the coming weeks 🌞. Rainfall across the country’s soybean areas is expected to be scattered and well below normal, which could negatively impact the soybean crop 🌱. Temperatures are forecasted to trend above average during the same period 🔥. The recent rally in soybean meal prices is likely due to concerns about Argentina’s soybean crop. While the extended forecast suggests a return to normal rainfall, farmers in Argentina typically complete soybean planting during the first half of January 🌾.

🇨🇳 China’s Efforts to Boost Cereal Grain Consumption 🌾

China is implementing measures to significantly boost cereal grain consumption over the next ten years 📊. As the world’s largest producer of cereal grains, China still relies on corn and wheat imports to feed its 1.4 billion people 🌍. Despite being the second-largest global corn producer, much of China’s corn is used for livestock feed 🐄. To improve grain production and quality, China plans to focus on developing grain varieties suitable for human consumption 🌾. The country also aims to establish stronger international grain standards and build global partnerships 🤝.

🇷🇺 Russian Wheat Exports to Decline Significantly 🌾

Russian wheat exports are set to decline next season, with Russian consulting group IKAR projecting exports to fall to 41 million metric tons (mmt) during the 2025/2026 season, a 6% decrease from the current season 📉. Wheat exports are expected to decline by 5% this season, although Russia will still remain the world’s leading exporter of wheat 🌍. This reduction is attributed to lower yields in winter crops due to a lack of fall moisture 🌧️. Despite a record wheat export in the first half of this season, government-imposed export restrictions will likely drive the decline 📉.

🌧️ USDA Drought Monitor Data 📊

The latest USDA drought monitor shows limited precipitation across the Corn Belt last week 🌽. Drought conditions have largely remained unchanged, although there was some improvement in southeast Kentucky 📉. Precipitation was also limited across the High Plains, where drought conditions stayed the same. Overall, 6% fewer areas in the region are experiencing drought compared to this time last year 🌱. As of the latest data:
54% of US corn is affected by drought 🌽.
47% of US soybeans are impacted 🌱.
27% of US winter wheat and 33% of spring wheat are experiencing drought 🌾.
37% of cattle are in drought-affected areas 🐄.

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0:00 Merry Christmas!
1:00 99 Soybean Problems
4:41 Brazil Economic Problems
7:43 Russia Crop Concerns
9:13 Strong Soybean Shipments
10:23 Flash Sales

🌾 Brazilian and Argentine Weather Forecasts Diverge 🌍
Brazil’s weather remains nearly ideal for soybean growth, with above-normal temperatures expected across most of the country in the next two weeks 🌞. Soybean planting in Brazil is complete, and USDA projects that Brazil will account for 40% of global soybean production this year 🌱. In contrast, Argentina’s weather is turning dry, with key soybean areas expected to receive less than half of their normal rainfall over the next two weeks 🌾. While it's too early for a full "crop scare event," the soybean meal market has already taken notice 📉. Argentina is expected to account for only 12% of global soybean production this year 🌍.

💵 Brazil’s Interest Rates Expected to Rise Amid Inflation 📈
Brazil’s benchmark interest rate is projected to rise sharply as inflation continues to run high. Brazilian economists expect the rate to climb to 15% by June 2025 💸. This month, rates were increased by 1% to 12.25%. The depreciation of the Brazilian real has contributed to elevated inflation levels, as investors lose confidence in the currency due to doubts about Brazil’s president’s commitment to improving the economy.

🌾 Russia’s Winter Crops Face Warm Temperatures 🌡️
Russia’s winter crops could be impacted by above-average temperatures, potentially causing sprouts to resume vegetation 🌱. Sovecon, a Russian consulting group, projects that winter wheat crop acres will be about 5% less than last year 📉. This follows earlier reports that over 37% of Russia’s winter crops were rated as poor or yet to sprout, marking the worst crop condition on record 🌾. Additionally, wheat exports are expected to decline by 17% this season, mainly due to lower production.

📦 US Soybean Shipments Surge, Corn and Wheat Sales Mixed 🚢
US soybean shipments were strong last week, with 1.7 million metric tons (64 million bushels) of soybeans inspected for export 📦. This was a 3% increase from the previous week and a 56% rise compared to the same week last year 📊. Corn shipments were reported at 1.1 million metric tons (44 million bushels), which was a 1.7% decrease compared to the previous week and an 8.5% decline compared to the same week last year 🌽. Wheat shipments hit a 12-week high, surpassing expectations with 403,719 metric tons (15 million bushels) 🌾. The wheat figure was 34% higher than the previous week but 15% lower than the same week last year.

📦 USDA Reports Flash Sales of Corn and Soybeans 🚢
132,000mt (5 million bushels) of corn were sold to unknown destinations for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year 🌽.
132,000mt (5 million bushels) of soybeans were sold to China for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year 🌱.