Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🌾 USDA Raises Corn Yield Estimate
Big news from the USDA! Yesterday, they increased their estimate of the US corn crop:
Yield was raised to 183.6bpa, up slightly from 183.1bpa.
Total crop is now pegged at 15.2 billion bushels, making it the second-largest on record, just behind last year! 📈
Despite the increase, old crop carryout was reduced by 55 million bushels due to stronger demand, so the balance sheet stayed flat.
The Dec24 corn contract managed to stay above $4/bu despite some pressure.

🚢 Russian Missile Hits Grain Ship in Black Sea
A Russian missile allegedly struck a grain vessel in the Black Sea, marking the first attack on a civilian ship transporting grain since the war began in February 2022. Here’s what happened:
The ship, from Saint Kitts and Nevis, was carrying Ukrainian grain to Egypt.
The attack occurred in international waters near Romania.
Thankfully, there were no casualties, and the ship continued its voyage. 🚢💥

🌱 Brazil’s Soybean Concerns
The situation is heating up in Brazil—literally. 🔥 Soil moisture levels in key soybean regions are at their lowest in 30 years:
The states of Mato Grosso and Parana, responsible for 40% of Brazil’s soybean output last season, are facing serious drought conditions. 🌵
Over the next 10 days, dry conditions and above-normal temperatures are expected.
Relief may come with rain forecasted for late September, but significant rainfall may not return until mid-October. 🌧️

💧 US Drought Conditions Worsen
The USDA’s latest drought monitor shows that drought is tightening its grip across the Corn Belt.
Hot, dry weather is affecting the southern and eastern Corn Belt, leading to signs of deeper dryness. 🌞

📉 US Crop Export Sales: Mixed Results
US export sales took a hit for corn, but there were some bright spots for soybeans and wheat. Here’s the breakdown:
Corn export sales were below expectations, totaling 666,500mt (26 million bushels), down 63% from the prior week. Mexico was the largest buyer.
Soybean sales were strong, hitting 1.5mmt (54 million bushels), with China leading the way. 📊
Wheat sales were 474,900mt (17 million bushels), up 40% from last week, with Taiwan as the top buyer.

🔥 Flash Sale of Corn!
More good news on the export front! The USDA reported a flash sale of 118,626mt (5 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. 

👇 Stay Updated!
Make sure to subscribe and stay tuned for more updates on global grain markets, US crop data, and weather impacts. Let me know in the comments: what do you think about the recent USDA corn estimate? 💬

#USDAReport #BlackSeaIncident #DroughtMonitor #SoybeanDrought #CornExportSales #AgNews #FlashSaleCorn

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Hey, everyone! 🙌 Today's video is packed with important updates from the USDA’s latest Crop Production and WASDE report to major challenges in Russian grain exports, low water levels on the Mississippi River, and US ethanol production. Let's dive into the details! 🚜👇

🌾 USDA Crop Production & WASDE Report: What to Expect
Today at 11 AM CST, the USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report. Here’s why traders are eagerly waiting:
For the first time this year, the government will incorporate "objective yield data" 📊 into its corn and soybean estimates!
Expectations: A small reduction in the US national corn yield estimate 🌽 and mostly unchanged soybean yield estimates 🌱.
With drier weather hitting the eastern Corn Belt, some traders believe last month may have been the high point for yield estimates. 📉

🇷🇺 Russian Grain Exports to Decline
Russia’s grain exports are expected to take a hit this year, especially from the Rostov region, which suffered early spring frosts and drought. This region, Russia’s breadbasket, accounted for over 11% of the nation’s grain harvest in 2023, but production is predicted to drop by 30% this year. 😲
Complicating matters further, TD RIF, Russia’s largest grain trader, is sitting out this year, adding uncertainty to export potential.

🚢 Mississippi River: Low Water Levels Hurting Farmer Profits
🌊 Here’s how bad it is:
Grain shipments on the Mississippi dropped 17% compared to the previous week.
Freight rates are skyrocketing! Rates in St. Louis are up 57%, and in Memphis, they’re up 63% compared to the three-year average. 📈

🍻 US Ethanol Production Surges
Good news for the ethanol market! 🚗 US ethanol production hit 1.08 million barrels per day last week, which is up 1.8% week-on-week and a big 6.7% increase compared to the same week last year! 🔥
Ethanol stocks were reported at 23.7 million barrels, up 1.5% from last week and 9.7% higher than the same week last year.
However, implied gasoline demand was down 5.1% on the week, continuing a trend of weaker demand this year.

🏦 Inflation Hits Lowest Level Since 2021
Inflation is cooling down! The CPI increased by 2.5% in August year-over-year, marking the lowest level since February 2021. 📉
Month-over-month, prices remained flat compared to July.
Economists expected a slightly higher annual gain of 2.6%, but this low reading almost guarantees a Federal Reserve rate cut next week.

👇 Stay Informed!
Don’t forget to subscribe to stay up-to-date on the latest agricultural trends, ethanol production stats, and global grain news! Drop your thoughts in the comments—what do you think the USDA report will reveal? 💬

#USDAReport #RussianGrain #MississippiRiver #EthanolProduction #Inflation #AgNews

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0:00 Don't Blame Farmers
3:45 45Z News?
6:20 Francine/River Update
8:25 Brazil Cattle Herd
9:52 Crude Declines

🌱 Consumers & Sustainable Food: Who’s Paying the Price?
Sustainability is a hot topic, but guess what? 🌍 Despite the pressure on food producers to go green, consumers aren’t ready to pay a premium for eco-friendly options. According to the CEO of JBS, the solution lies in boosting productivity to make food more affordable, not more expensive.
The food industry needs $350 billion annually until 2030 to go sustainable.
Farmers deserve compensation for adopting higher environmental standards 🌿, but how can we make that happen without raising food prices?

💸 45Z Tax Credit: A Boost for US Agriculture?
Big changes are coming! 🚜 Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack is confident that the new 45Z tax credit will be finalized by January, offering better incentives for sustainable farming. Here’s what you need to know:
The new credit is expected to include more crops and eco-friendly practices than the current 40B credit.

🌪️ Hurricane Francine: Impacting Louisiana & Beyond
Hold on to your hats! 🎩 Hurricane Francine is about to hit the Louisiana coast with winds over 100 mph! Here’s what’s on the radar:
Expect up to 12 inches of rainfall and a storm surge up to 10 feet along the coast.
🌽 While heavy rain is expected in parts of the Corn Belt, it won’t be enough to ease low water levels on the Mississippi River.

🐂 Brazilian Cattle Herd Decline: What’s Next for Global Beef?
The cattle industry is facing a rough road ahead 🐄. Brazil’s cattle herd is expected to decline in 2025 and beyond, with fewer cattle being slaughtered. Here's what you need to know:
Brazil, the largest beef exporter in 2024, is expected to see a drop of 4.6% in slaughter next year.
🥩 Meanwhile, the US beef cowherd is at its lowest level since 1951!

🛢️ Oil Prices Plummet: What’s Behind the Drop?
Oil prices took a hit! 📉 WTI crude dropped 4% to close at $65.75 per barrel. The culprits? OPEC+ downgraded its demand growth forecast, citing:
China’s slowing economy and growing reliance on natural gas.
Decreased economic activity in the US and Europe.
But don’t count oil out just yet! Some analysts believe that postponed production cuts could stabilize prices in the months ahead.

#SustainableFood #45ZTaxCredit #HurricaneFrancine #GlobalBeef #OilPrices #AgNews #FoodIndustry

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Here’s the latest scoop on the markets and key updates:

🌾 American Flour Mills Importing European Wheat:

European Wheat Imports: Ardent Mills in Albany, NY will soon receive 27,000 tons of French wheat. Since the season started in July, around 53,000 tons of European wheat have been shipped to the US. Eastern US millers are opting for cheaper European supplies despite France's poor harvest due to excessive rainfall.

🌪️ Tropical Storm Francine:

Hurricane Alert: Tropical Storm Francine is strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico and is expected to become a Category 2 hurricane by Wednesday. Southern Louisiana may face winds over 100 mph, a storm surge up to 10 feet, and up to 12 inches of rain. Evacuation orders are in effect, and Louisiana has declared a statewide emergency.

🌱 Brazilian Corn Planting:

Planting Delays: Brazil’s first corn crop planting is slightly behind last year’s pace, with 15% planted as of last Thursday compared to 17% last year. Low soil moisture and hot, dry conditions are delaying soybean planting, which is likely to remain stalled with minimal rain in the forecast.

🌽 US Crop Conditions:

Corn: The corn crop was rated 64% good to excellent as of Sunday, down from 65% the previous week but matching trade expectations. The USDA estimates 5% of the crop is harvested, up from 3% on average.
Soybeans: Soybean conditions held steady at 65% good to excellent, surpassing expectations. The USDA estimates 25% of the crop is dropping leaves, up from 13% last week and 21% on average.
Spring Wheat: Harvest is ahead of schedule at 85% complete, versus 70% last week and 83% on average. Winter wheat planting is also progressing, with 6% complete.

🚢 US Grain Shipments:

Corn: Shipments were 836,413mt (33 million bushels), down 13% from the previous week but up 31% from last year.
Soybeans: Shipments were 354,166mt (13 million bushels), down 30% from the prior week and 5.2% from last year.
Wheat: Shipments were 586,687mt (22 million bushels), down 2.7% from last week but up 44% from last year.

🌾 Flash Sale of Soybeans:

New Sales: US exporters sold 132,000mt (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Although recent sales have picked up, they remain among the lowest in the last decade.

🇨🇳 China’s Antidumping Investigation:

Canadian Canola: China has launched an investigation into Canadian canola imports, alleging that Canada dumped excessive quantities in 2023. This follows Canada's plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs and a 25% tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum starting October 1. China is also investigating EU pork and dairy imports.

Stay tuned for more updates and adjustments! 🌾🚀

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Here's the latest on the markets and key developments:

0:00 Rejection
2:15 "The Funds"
5:32 Tropical Storm / River Levels
7:05 Export Sales
9:09 Brazil Update
10:35 Chinese Ag Drones
11:40 Trump/Biden/Tariffs

🌾 Corn and Soybean Futures:
Corn and soybean futures pulled back from recent highs on Friday. The Dec24 corn contract reached $4.16 per bushel but closed near $4.06. The Nov24 soybean contract hit $10.31 per bushel before closing around $10.05. This rally followed reduced farmer selling and concerns over drought in Brazil, along with stronger export sales reported by USDA.

🌾 Fund Trader Positions:
Fund traders have reduced their net short positions. For the week ending September 3, funds were net buyers of 61k corn contracts and 21k soybean contracts. This has cut down nearly half of the record net short position in corn. They also bought 11k SRW wheat contracts. 

🌧️ Mississippi River Conditions:
Despite the Potential Tropical Storm Six expected to bring heavy rains to the Gulf Coast and southeastern US, water levels on the Mississippi River are likely to continue declining. The system may bring 3-5 inches of rain to southern areas, but central and northern river valley areas may remain dry. 

🌽 US Export Commitments:
New crop US corn export commitments were strong last week at 1.8mmt (72 million bushels), up 22% from the previous week, with Mexico being the largest buyer. Soybean sales were 1.7mmt (61 million bushels), down 37% from the previous week, with China as the largest buyer. Wheat sales were lower than expected at 340,000mt (12 million bushels).

🌱 Brazilian Soybean Production:
Brazil's soybean production is projected to rise to 168mmt this season, a 14% increase from last year, despite ongoing drought conditions. Forecasts suggest that rainfall may start in October. The USDA projects Brazilian soybean production at 169mmt. Prices for soybeans recently fell to a nearly four-year low, but have since been buoyed by US crop concerns.

🚁 Chinese Agriculture Drones:
US lawmakers are raising concerns about DJI agricultural drones potentially posing a security threat. They argue that these drones could be used for attacks, although DJI denies military ties. The US imposed export restrictions on DJI in 2020, but the company still dominates the US drone market.

💰 Trump’s Tariff Proposal:
Donald Trump proposed a 100% tariff on countries that move away from the US dollar. The Biden administration is also expected to make a decision soon on increasing tariffs on Chinese EVs, batteries, semiconductors, and solar cells.

Stay tuned for more updates and adjustments in these key areas!

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Here’s the latest update from the markets:

🌾 Soybean Futures:

Winning Streak: The Nov24 soybean contract closed higher for the fifth consecutive day on Thursday, gaining 2 cents per bushel. Despite high yield estimates, some traders worry that August’s heat and dry weather might lead to losses. Recent interest from China in US soybeans aligns with typical seasonal patterns.

🌾 Corn and Wheat Futures:

Snap in Rally: Corn futures ended their five-day winning streak with a decline yesterday, while wheat futures also halted their recent gains.

🌾 US Drought Monitor:

Conditions Worsen: The drought has worsened in parts of the Corn Belt due to above-normal temperatures and minimal rainfall. Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, and other areas are seeing deteriorated conditions, while Wisconsin and Michigan saw some improvement. Rainfall in the High Plains improved conditions in central Kansas but worsened them in western South Dakota and Nebraska. See the USDA’s drought PDF HERE.

🌾 Mississippi River Impact:

Barge Rates Surge: Declining water levels on the Mississippi River due to drought have led to a nearly 20% increase in barge rates. Restrictions on barge traffic are in place, affecting corn and soybean shipments and making US exports less competitive. Further declines in water levels are expected with minimal rain in the forecast. See maps/graphics below.

🌾 Brazilian Soybean Weather:

Dry Conditions: Most key soybean areas in Brazil will remain dry for the next 10 days. Forecasts suggest rainfall in southern Brazil through mid-month, with a possible return of rains to central areas later in September. This drought may delay planting, with September marking the transition from the dry to wet season. See maps below.

🌾 US Farm Income:

Less Decline: USDA estimates net farm income at $140 billion this year, down 4.4% from 2023. This is better than the earlier projection of a 26% decline. Despite lower corn and soybean prices, the estimate is 15% above the 20-year average. Total crop receipts are expected to drop by $27.7 billion, a 10% decrease. Click HERE for the USDA release.

🌾 US Ethanol Production:

Slight Decline: Weekly ethanol production fell to 1.06 million barrels per day, a 1% drop from the previous week but up 5.4% year-over-year. Ethanol stocks are at 23.4 million barrels. Implied gasoline demand decreased by 4% from the previous week and 1.4% from last year. Over the last four weeks, implied gasoline demand is up 1% from last year. See charts below.

🌾 Flash Sales:

Soybeans: USDA reported multiple flash sales of soybeans on Thursday. US exporters sold 126,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China and 189,700 metric tons (7 million bushels) to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.

🌾 Gasoline Prices:

Fall to Six-Month Lows: Gasoline prices have dropped to a six-month low, with the national average at $3.32 per gallon. This is $0.15 lower than last month and $0.49 lower than last year. Prices are expected to fall further as winter-grade gasoline becomes more common. Analysts anticipate prices could drop as low as $3 per gallon by year-end. The average retail price is already under $3 in nine stat

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🌽🌱 Corn, Soybean, & Wheat Markets on Fire! 🔥 | Futures Rally, Global Crop Updates & River Concerns

Welcome back to the channel, traders! 🚜 Today we’re diving into the latest surges in the corn, soybean, and wheat markets, as well as some critical updates on global agriculture trends. Let's get into the details!

🚀 Futures Rallying Strong!
Corn, soybean, and wheat futures are making waves! 🌊 On Wednesday, all three surged:

Corn & soybean futures closed higher for four consecutive sessions!
KC wheat futures crushed it with six consecutive higher closes!
✨ What's Driving This? Fund traders are covering short positions and US farmers may be holding off on selling, especially after last week’s First Notice Day. Let's break it down:

Dec24 corn contract rallied 29 cents 📈 from last week’s low!
Nov24 soybean contract spiked an impressive 70 cents 📊!
Dec24 KC wheat contract rose 67 cents from its August low!
🇧🇷 Record Soybean Production Expected in Brazil!
Get ready for a massive harvest in Brazil! 🏞️ AgRural reports that soybean production is set to hit 168 million metric tons (MMT), a 14% increase compared to last season! However, 🌞 dry weather is causing planting delays. Here's the scoop:

Planting is expected to start soon, but dry conditions may push it back ⏳.
Brazil’s soybean acreage will expand, but only by 0.9%, the slowest growth in 20 years! 🌱
🇺🇸 US Crop Yields Rise!
Exciting news for US corn and soybean farmers! StoneX reports slight increases in crop yields:

Corn: Up to 182.9 bpa, with total production pegged at 15.1 billion bushels 🌽.
Soybeans: Yields increased to 53 bpa, with production rising to 4.6 billion bushels 🌱!
🌊 Mississippi River Low Water Levels Impact Exports
Trouble on the water! 🚢 The Mississippi River is facing its third consecutive year of low water levels, causing massive disruptions for grain exports:

Barge rates are skyrocketing, making US grain exports less competitive globally 🌍.
Memphis’ water level could hit a shocking -7.5 feet by mid-September! ⚠️
🌾 Ukraine's Drought Concerns
🌍 Ukraine is battling drought, with up to 70% of the country affected by dry conditions. Despite this, farmers are starting to plant winter crops:

Wheat harvest for 2023/24 season was 21.8MMT, slightly down from last year.
USDA estimates next season's wheat production at 21.6MMT.
👇 Stay Updated!
Be sure to subscribe for more updates on global agricultural trends, futures markets, and crop news. Comment below on what you think this means for the market in the long term! 📈 And remember, staying informed is key to staying ahead! 🚀

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Here’s the latest market update:

🌾 Brazilian Soybean Drought:

Concerns Growing: The drought in Brazil is intensifying. StoneX has kept its soybean crop estimate at 165 million metric tons (MMT), while the USDA projects 169 MMT. Planting is challenging due to dry weather, with no rain forecasted for most of Brazil in the next 10 days. The Nov24 soybean contract gained 12 cents per bushel on Tuesday. See maps below.

🌾 China's Antidumping Investigation:

Canola Imports Under Scrutiny: China plans to investigate Canadian canola imports, citing dumping concerns. This move follows Canada’s tariffs on Chinese EVs and steel/aluminum. China imports over 90% of its canola from Canada. North American canola futures fell their daily limit of $45 on Tuesday, the largest one-day drop since August 2022.

🌾 US Crop Conditions:

Corn: US corn conditions held steady at 65% good to excellent, matching trade expectations and the best for this week since 2018. 19% of the crop is mature.
Soybeans: Soybean conditions fell to 65% good to excellent, slightly below expectations but still the best since 2020. 13% of the crop is dropping leaves.

🌾 US Spring Wheat Harvest:

Progressing: The US spring wheat harvest is 70% complete, matching the average but slightly ahead of projections. Winter wheat planting is underway, with 2% planted.

🌾 Argentina Rainfall:

Beneficial for Corn: Recent rains in Argentina are expected to aid corn planting. The Rosario Grains Exchange anticipates corn production at 49 MMT, with farmers potentially planting more corn acres than previously expected due to recent moisture.

🌾 US Grain Shipments:

Strong Shipments:
Corn: 965,292 metric tons (38 million bushels) inspected for export, +5.2% from the previous week and +100% from last year.
Soybeans: 496,860 metric tons (18 million bushels) inspected, up 18% from the prior week and 22% from last year.
Wheat: 577,944 metric tons (21 million bushels) inspected, +5.2% from the previous week and +82% from last year.

🌾 Flash Sale:

Soybeans: 132,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans sold to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year, matching a previous flash sale.

🌾 US Oil Prices:

Plunge: WTI crude fell 4.4% to $70.34 per barrel, its lowest close since December. The decline is partly due to potential increased Libyan oil production and weaker manufacturing activity in China and the US. Oil prices are also under pressure as OPEC+ plans to boost output by over 1.4 million barrels per day starting in October.
Keep an eye on these developments as they could significantly influence market dynamics and strategies! 🌾📉🛢️

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Here's a recap of the latest updates:

🌾 Futures Rally:

Corn: The Dec24 corn contract gained 5 cents per bushel, closing above $4 for the first time since August 19. New crop corn futures have risen 16 cents per bushel from their late August low.
Soybeans: The Nov24 soybean contract increased by 8 cents per bushel, closing above $10 for the first time since August 9. New crop soybean futures rallied 53 cents from their August low to last week’s high. Fund traders were net buyers of 15,000 contracts of corn and 10,000 contracts of soybeans on Friday.

🌾 Brazilian Soybean Drought:

Severe Conditions: Brazil's soybean crops are facing the worst drought in over 40 years. Some areas are experiencing the driest conditions on record since 1981. Soybean planting in Mato Grosso is expected to be delayed due to below-average rainfall in September and October. Dry weather is forecast to continue for at least the next two weeks. See maps from CropProphet for details.

🌾 Fund Trader Positions:

Large Net Shorts: Fund traders hold a massive net short position across the grain complex. According to CFTC data:
Corn: Net short of 249,000 contracts (historically large).
Soybeans: Net short of 168,000 contracts (historically large).
SRW Wheat: Net sellers of 6,000 contracts.

🌾 Used Equipment Demand:

Growing Interest: Farmers are increasingly turning to used equipment due to low grain prices. Used tractors were in high demand at the Farm Progress Show in Iowa, with BigIron Auctions offering its largest-ever selection of used equipment. The drop in grain prices and reduced profits are leading farmers to cut back on new equipment purchases, which may further lower used equipment prices.
🌾 Flash Sales:

Soybeans and Meal:
132,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans were sold to China for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
100,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal were sold to Colombia for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
Keep an eye on these developments as they could have significant impacts on market trends and planning strategies! 🌽🌾📈

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Here’s the latest update on the grain markets and economic conditions:

🌾 Grain Futures Rise:

Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat: Futures for corn, soybeans, and wheat all closed higher on Thursday. This increase followed the pricing or rolling of September basis contracts, likely reducing farmer selling until harvest. Strong export sales for wheat, new crop corn, and new crop soybeans contributed to this upward movement. Fund traders were net buyers of 10,000 contracts of corn, 10,000 contracts of soybeans, and 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat.

🌾 Export Sales:

Corn: New crop corn export commitments were strong at 1.5 million metric tons (59 million bushels), up 16% from the previous week. Mexico was the largest buyer, though China has not yet purchased any new crop US corn.
Soybeans: New crop soybean sales were robust at 2.6 million metric tons (96 million bushels), a 56% increase from the previous week. China was the largest buyer for the week.
Wheat: Net wheat sales were reported at 532,100 metric tons (20 million bushels), up 8% from the previous week and 53% above the prior 4-week average. The Philippines led as the largest wheat buyer.

🌾 Egypt’s Wheat Tender:

Large Tender: Egypt initiated its largest wheat tender on record, seeking 3.8 million metric tons. The tender was nearly 20 times its usual size, valued at approximately $850 million. This move aimed to address "food security concerns" amid regional tensions and supply risks. However, Egypt could only purchase 7% of the targeted volume and continues to explore other procurement options.

🌾 Sorghum Sale:

Flash Sale: On Thursday, US exporters sold 118,000 metric tons of sorghum to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year, marking the second sorghum sale to China this year, totaling 244,000 metric tons.

🌾 Drought Monitor:

Worsening Conditions: The USDA’s weekly drought monitor reported minimal rainfall across the Corn Belt last week, worsening drought conditions in Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, Missouri, and Kentucky. Conditions also deteriorated in Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Oklahoma. Current drought conditions:
Corn: 8%
Soybeans: 12%
Winter Wheat: 47%
Spring Wheat: 21%
Cattle: 24%

🌾 US Economic Expansion:

GDP Growth: The US economy expanded at an annual rate of 3% in the second quarter, up from the prior estimate of 2.8%. The revision was driven by increased consumer spending. Despite this stronger growth, the economy is expected to cool in the coming months due to high interest rates. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates next month, potentially easing borrowing costs for businesses.

Keep an eye on these developments as they could impact market dynamics and future planning! 🌽🌾📈