Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-

Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

0:00 China Grain Situation
2:39 Lower Canadian Wheat Production
5:12 GMO Wheat Approved in US
6:28 Used Cooking Oil News
8:45 Ethanol Production
9:52 Flash Sales

Here’s the latest news in the grain and biofuels markets:

🌾 China’s Import Restrictions:
China is proposing new restrictions on barley and sorghum imports to address domestic oversupply and improve local prices. This follows earlier restrictions on corn imports for the same reasons. Currently, Chinese corn, sorghum, and barley prices are at or near their lowest in over three years, and corn inventories at southern ports are nearing a two-year high.

🌾 Canadian Wheat Production:
Lower Estimates: Canada’s wheat production is now expected to increase by about 4% this year to approximately 34.4mmt, lower than the previous estimate of 35.1mmt. The reduction is due to hot and dry conditions impacting crop yields. Global wheat stocks have been declining for five consecutive years and are projected to hit a nine-year low in the 2024/2025 season, exacerbated by unfavorable conditions in Russia.

🌾 GMO Wheat Approval:
HB4 Trait: The USDA has approved the production of GMO wheat with the drought-tolerant HB4 trait, developed by Argentina-based Bioceres Crop Solutions. This herbicide-resistant wheat is now approved in the US, Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina. 

🌾 US Used Cooking Oil Imports:
Surge in Imports: US imports of used cooking oil (UCO) have surged by 240% between 2022 and 2023, with China supplying 60% of the total. The boom in the biofuels industry is driving this increase. Recent EU tariffs on Chinese biodiesel imports are expected to further boost US imports of Chinese UCO due to a global market surplus. Concerns over fraudulent UCO imports have been raised by US farm organizations and lawmakers.

🌾 US Ethanol Production:
Decline and Demand: US ethanol production decreased to 1.07 million barrels per day last week, down 2.5% from the previous week but up 2.2% from the same week last year. Ethanol stocks were reported at 23.6 million barrels, showing a slight decrease from the previous week but a 3.4% increase year-over-year. Implied gasoline demand rose by 1.2% week-over-week and 4.5% year-over-year. Over the past four weeks, implied gasoline demand is up by 1% compared to last year.

🌾 USDA Flash Sales:
On Wednesday, US exporters sold:
264,000 metric tons (10 million bushels) of soybeans to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
100,000 metric tons (4 million bushels) of corn to Colombia for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
165,735 metric tons (7 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for the 2024/2025 marketing year.

Stay tuned for more updates and make sure to adapt your strategies to these evolving market conditions! 🌽🌾📉

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-

Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

0:00 Ag Recession
3:55 Midwest Heat
6:58 Brazil Acreage
8:20 Argentina Acreage
9:49 Corn Sold to Mexico

Here's the latest scoop on the grain markets and farmer decisions:

🌾 Farmer Adjustments:

Price Pressures: With grain prices under pressure due to projected bumper crops, farmers are facing tough choices. Many are scaling back on fungicide and fertilizer use and delaying investments that could boost productivity and earnings.
Financial Impact: In Illinois, farmers could lose up to $118 per acre for corn and $81 per acre for soybeans this year, as highlighted by a recent WJS article HERE.

🌞 Weather Impact:

Hot and Dry Conditions: A heatwave and minimal rainfall across the Corn Belt have pushed up grain prices slightly. Corn, soybean, and wheat futures rose on Tuesday due to the unfavorable weather forecast. However, prices are still at their lowest levels in 14 years compared to other commodities, weighed down by abundant global and domestic supplies.

🌍 Global Acreage and Production:

Brazil: Soybean acres in Brazil are expected to grow at their slowest rate in over a decade. Despite this, COFCO forecasts a record 168 million metric tons (mmt) soybean crop for the 2024/2025 season, up 14% from the previous year. Soybean acreage is being reduced due to prices near four-year lows.

Argentina: Significant increases in soybean acres are expected as Argentine farmers shift from corn to soybeans due to leafhopper damage. The Rosario grains exchange predicts a 4.9 million-acre reduction in corn planting, with a substantial portion shifting to soybeans. There’s also a possibility that a harsh winter may have reduced the leafhopper population, potentially moderating the expected decline in corn planting.

🌽 USDA Flash Sale:

Corn Sale: On Tuesday, US exporters sold 127,760 metric tons (5 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Despite this, total new crop corn export commitments are still among the lowest in the past decade.

Stay informed and adapt to the changing market conditions! 🌽📈🌍

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-

Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

0:00 Heat Wave and Corn Sweat
2:24 Grains are "Cheap"
4:41 Brazil Corn Planting
6:06 Indonesia Biofuel
7:26 Crop Ratings
9:22 Grain Shipment Update

🌡️ Extreme Heat in the US Corn Belt
Heat Dome Alert: Scorching temperatures are expected between St. Louis and Chicago today, with heat indices rising to a sweltering 105°F to 115°F. This heat wave might break records across the region.
Expanding Heat: The extreme heat is set to move into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast by mid-week.
Impact on Crops: The high temperatures are anticipated to damage crops, pushing soybean futures higher as traders brace for potential losses.

📉 Grain Prices and Market Trends
Low Grain Prices: Despite the heat, grains like soybeans, corn, and wheat are at their lowest prices since 2010 relative to other commodities.
Record Corn Crops: Recent forecasts from the Pro Farmer tour suggest bumper corn crops in Illinois and Iowa, contributing to the downward pressure on prices.
Corn Futures: December corn futures have dropped to their lowest level since 2020, driven by ample supplies and continuous farmer selling.

🌽 Brazil's Corn Planting and Forecast
Slower Planting: Brazilian farmers have begun planting their first corn crop for the 2024/2025 season, but progress is slower this year due to caution over recent frosts.
Lower Crop Forecast: AgRural predicts a 3.5% smaller first corn crop this season, attributed to lower corn prices and potential dry conditions from La Niña.

🇮🇩 Indonesia's Palm Oil-Based Biodiesel Plan
Proposed Increase: The Indonesian president-elect has proposed increasing the palm oil-based biodiesel blend to 50% by early 2025.
Impact: This proposal could significantly boost palm oil consumption, though industry experts express concerns about readiness and testing.

🌾 US Crop Conditions
Corn and Soybean Conditions: US corn conditions declined slightly last week, now rated 65% good to excellent, while soybeans held steady at 67% good to excellent. However, these ratings might drop next week due to the ongoing extreme heat.
Spring Wheat Harvest: The US spring wheat harvest is slightly behind schedule, with 51% completed, just under the average pace.

🚢 US Export Shipments
Corn Shipments: Corn exports declined last week, down 26% from the previous week but still up 49% year-over-year.
Soybean Shipments: Soybean exports saw a slight increase of 1.4% week-over-week, with a significant 26% rise compared to last year.
Wheat Shipments: Wheat exports were up 44% from the previous week and 38% compared to the same time last year.
The extreme weather and market trends are clearly having a big impact on agriculture right now. 🌍 Keep an eye on how these factors develop, especially with the ongoing heat wave and its potential effects on crop yields!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-

Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌽 Crop Estimates Update:

Corn Yield: Pro Farmer estimates a US national average corn yield of 181.1bpa, slightly lower than the USDA's recent estimate of 183.1bpa. If confirmed, this yield would set a new national record.
Soybean Yield: Pro Farmer estimates a national average soybean yield of 54.9bpa, which is higher than the USDA's estimate of 53.2bpa and could also set a new national record.
Note: Pro Farmer's yield estimates are not purely based on state-by-state findings; they incorporate other factors for a more comprehensive analysis.

⚖️ Legal Victory in South Dakota:

Summit Carbon Solutions: The South Dakota Supreme Court ruled against Summit Carbon Solutions, stating that the company does not qualify as a common carrier. This decision prevents the use of eminent domain to construct their CO2 pipeline across the state.
Implications: The ruling stems from Summit's refusal to disclose agreements with regional ethanol companies, which hindered the court's ability to confirm whether Summit would be transporting a commodity, a requirement for common carrier status.

📉 Fund Traders' Position:

Corn: Funds have a historically large net short position of 257k contracts after selling 4k contracts.
Soybeans: Funds also hold a significant net short position of 168k contracts, having sold 13k contracts.
Wheat: Contrary to corn and soybeans, funds were net buyers of 21k contracts of SRW wheat.

📦 USDA Flash Sale:

Soybeans: A flash sale of 120,000mt (4 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations was reported for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Last week, total flash sales reached 1.4mmt (51 million bushels).

🐄 Cattle on Feed Report:

Market Impact: The report for August was seen as neutral to slightly bearish for the cattle market.
Key Numbers:
Cattle on feed: 100.2% of last year's levels.
Placements in July: 106% of last year, higher than expected.
Marketings: 108% of last year's levels, consistent with expectations.
Implication: The higher-than-expected placements might apply downward pressure on the cattle market.

🏛️ Federal Reserve Update:

Jerome Powell's Speech: Powell indicated that a rate cut is on the horizon, with future decisions more reliant on labor market data than inflation.
Labor Market: The US unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, the highest in three years.
Next Meeting: The Federal Reserve will convene again on September 17 and 18, where more concrete actions may be outlined.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-

Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌾 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Highlights:

Minnesota: Corn yield potential was pegged at 164.9 bpa, significantly down from last year and the lowest since 2012. USDA’s projection remains at 185 bpa, unchanged from last year. Excessive rainfall early in the growing season likely contributed to the reduced yield potential. Soybean pod counts were closer to the three-year tour average, showing relatively better potential.
Iowa: Corn yield potential was recorded at a tour-record 192.8 bpa, up from last year’s 185.8 bpa. USDA's recent projection is a record 209 bpa. Soybean pod counts were notably higher than last year and close to the 2010 tour record. USDA projects Iowa’s soybean yield at 61 bpa, up from 58 bpa last year.

🚂 Canadian Rail Strike Update:

Resolution: Workers at Canadian National Railway will return to work today, following government intervention to end the work stoppage. The strike continues at Canadian Pacific Kansas City, but negotiations are ongoing. Rail operations are expected to resume within days, with a full recovery of shipments taking about a week.

🌱 US Export Commitments:

New Crop: US corn and soybean export commitments for the new crop are weaker than average. New crop soybean sales are the worst since 2019, with Chinese purchases being the 3rd worst in the last 10 years. New crop corn export commitments are the 5th worst in the last decade, with no purchases from China.

🌧️ US Drought Monitor:

Conditions: Drought conditions worsened in several key areas:
Corn: 7% affected
Soybeans: 8% affected
Winter Wheat: 45% affected
Spring Wheat: 21% affected
Cattle: 21% affected
Notable deterioration was seen in Ohio, northern Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and the western Dakotas. 

🌱 USDA Flash Sales:

Recent Sales:
198,000 mt (7 million bushels) of soybeans to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
110,490 mt (4 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
105,000 mt of soybean cake and meal to Vietnam for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
132,000 mt (5 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.

🐄 Cattle on Feed Report:

Preview: USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report will be released this afternoon at 2:00 pm CST. Pre-report estimates expect cattle on feed as of August 1 to be steady compared to last year, with July placements up 3.2% and marketings up 8.1% year-over-year. A report meeting these expectations is likely to be viewed as bearish for the market.

Stay tuned for more updates and insights as the season progresses! 🌽📈🚂

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-

Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

0:00 Crop Tour Update
3:30 Rail Strike
6:20 Argentina Acreage Decline
7:29 Ethanol Update
8:30 Flash Sales
9:23 Fed Minutes

🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Highlights:

Illinois: Corn yield pegged at a record 204.2 bpa, up from last year's 193.7 bpa. USDA’s recent estimate is 225 bpa. Soybean pod counts were impressive at 1,419 per 3x3 plot, up 12% from last year. USDA projects a record soybean yield of 66 bpa, up from 63 bpa last year.
Western Iowa: Strong corn yield potential in west-central and southwest districts, but reduced in the northwest due to early-season rainfall. Soybean potential is similarly strong in the west-central and southwest but weaker in the northwest. USDA forecasts Iowa's corn yield at a record 209 bpa and soybean yield at 61 bpa.

🚂 Canadian Rail Shutdown:

Impact: A lockout of 9,300 workers by Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City began last night due to stalled negotiations with the Teamsters union. The shutdown affects 75% of Canada’s exported goods to the US, including grains and fertilizers. Rail operations in the US and Mexico continue, but the shutdown may cause ripple effects.

🌾 Argentina Corn Acreage:

Forecast: Expected to decline by 17% for the 2024/2025 season due to concerns over leafhoppers and dry conditions. The Buenos Aires grains exchange has already reduced its estimate for the 2023/2024 corn crop by 10 mmt and anticipates fewer acres planted due to lower corn prices.

🚜 US Ethanol Production:

Update: Weekly production rose to 1.1 million barrels per day, up 2.4% from the previous week and 2.7% from last year. Ethanol stocks increased to 23.6 million barrels. Implied gasoline demand was up 1.6% from the previous week and 3.9% year-over-year. Over the past four weeks, gasoline demand is up 1% compared to last year.

🌱 US Soybean Flash Sales:

Sales: US exporters sold 132,000 mt (5 million bushels) to China and 121,000 mt (4 million bushels) to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
📉 Federal Reserve Update:


Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates in September. Recent minutes show confidence that inflation is trending towards 2%. A rate cut is anticipated due to concerns about a weakening labor market. Recent data also indicated a revision in nonfarm payrolls, expected to be reduced by 818,000, the largest revision since 2009.

Stay tuned for more updates as the Pro Farmer Crop Tour continues and market conditions evolve! 🌾📉🚂

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-

Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

Here’s the latest crop tour and market update:

🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Findings:

Indiana: Corn yield projected at 187.5 bpa, up from last year's 180.9 bpa. USDA’s forecast is higher at 207 bpa. Soybean pod counts soared to 1,409 per 3x3 plot, up 8% from last year. USDA is projecting a record soybean yield of 62 bpa for the state.
Nebraska: Corn yield estimated at 173.3 bpa, up from last year's 167.2 bpa. USDA's forecast is a record 194 bpa. Soybean pod counts are strong at 1,172 per 3x3 plot, up 1% from last year. USDA projects a nearly 15% rise in soybean yield to 59 bpa.

🐄 Cattle Futures:

Market Trends: Cattle futures continue to drop, hitting new lows for each contract month. The selloff follows Vice President Harris’s announcement on tackling "price gouging," which could impact the beef market. Despite historically low beef cow numbers, the market remains bearish. The USDA's monthly cattle on feed report due this Friday will provide further insights.

🌾 Russia's Wheat Crop:

Weather Impact: Late spring frosts, dry conditions, and flooding have harmed Russia's wheat crop. The agriculture ministry maintains a forecast of 86 mmt, but estimates could be reduced. Sovecon’s projection is lower at 83.3 mmt. Geopolitical tensions are also rising with recent missile and drone attacks on Ukraine.

📦 US Soybean Flash Sales:

Recent Sales: US exporters sold 132,000 mt (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China and 239,492 mt (9 million bushels) to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.

💵 US Dollar Decline:

Market Impact: The US dollar fell to its lowest level since the beginning of the year amid expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. The dollar has weakened as economic concerns ease and with strong retail sales data, markets are anticipating up to four quarter-point rate cuts before year-end.
Stay tuned for more updates as the crop tour continues and market conditions evolve! 🌾📉🚜

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-

Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

Here's the latest update from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour and more:

🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Findings:

Southeast South Dakota: Corn yield projected at 156.5 bpa, slightly down from last year's 157.4 bpa. Soybean pod counts up 1% from last year. USDA’s projections are more optimistic with a 10 bpa increase in corn and a 3 bpa (7%) rise in soybeans.
Western Ohio: Corn yield at 183.3 bpa, close to last year's 183.9 bpa. Soybean pod counts are down 2% from last year, while USDA projects a 1 bpa (1.7%) increase in soybean yield. Mixed sentiment here—some traders find it friendly for prices, others less clear.

🌾 Corn and Soybean Conditions:

Corn: Rated 67% good to excellent, steady with the previous week and the best rating since 2020. 5% of the crop is mature, ahead of the average.
Soybeans: Rated 68% good to excellent, also the best rating since 2020. 81% of the crop is setting pods, slightly ahead of the average.
🌾 Spring Wheat Harvest: 31% harvested, lagging behind the 36% average. Winter wheat harvest is nearly complete at 96%.

🚂 Canada Rail System Threat: Potential rail strikes by Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City could halt all freight services on Thursday, impacting grain shipments significantly. A stoppage could result in daily losses of $733 million during harvest season.

📦 US Corn and Soybean Shipments:

Corn: 1.2 mmt (46 million bushels) inspected for export, up 18% from the previous week and 128% from last year.
Soybeans: 398,233 mt (15 million bushels) inspected, up 14% from the prior week and 24% from last year. Flash sales included 332,000 mt (12 million bushels) to China and 110,000 mt (4 million bushels) to unknown destinations.

🌾 USDA Flash Sales:

Soybeans: Multiple flash sales reported, with significant amounts sold to China and unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
Stay tuned for more updates as the Pro Farmer tour continues and the Canadian rail situation develops! 🚜📉

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-

Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

0:00 Crop Tour Preview
2:37 The Funds
4:38 Joe's Old Crop Corn Sales
6:03 Summit Pipeline Resistance
7:18 EU Crop Problems
9:34 Jackson Hole / Economy

Here’s what’s coming up:

🚜 Pro Farmer Crop Tour: Kicking off this week, the Pro Farmer crop tour will start in Ohio and South Dakota, and then move through Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, and Minnesota. Expect state-by-state findings each evening, with final crop estimates released on Thursday night. This tour has been a staple since 1993. 🗺️

📉 Fund Traders' Positions: Fund traders are holding historically large net short positions across the grain complex. As of August 13, they were net sellers of 4k corn contracts and net buyers of 2k soybean contracts, with a net short of 155k in soybeans. 📊

🌍 Summit Carbon Pipeline: Facing pushback, Summit Carbon Solutions is hosting 23 public meetings in Iowa this week to address landowner concerns. Originally set to start this year, the pipeline’s operational date has been pushed to 2027 due to opposition and regulatory delays. 📉

🌾 EU Wheat Crop Concerns: Poor weather has hit wheat crops hard in the EU. France’s soft wheat crop is projected to be the worst since the 1980s, while Germany’s is also expected to be the worst since 2018. Rain has caused significant setbacks in both countries. 🌧️

🏛️ Fed Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole: Powell is set to speak at Jackson Hole this week, where he's expected to confirm a September rate cut. Following positive CPI and PPI reports, a quarter-point cut seems likely. Keep an eye out for any hints about future rate changes. 📉

Stay tuned for updates from the crop tour and Powell's speech—both could shake things up! 🌟

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-

Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌽 Corn Futures: After a positive turn on Monday, Dec24 corn futures are struggling to maintain momentum. With considerable bushels still unpriced by farmers, any rallies are getting capped. Check out the latest movements on this chart! 📉

🚜 John Deere's Earnings Jump: Despite layoffs and a tough year, John Deere's stock popped 4% after beating subdued Q3 expectations! They're navigating a rocky 2024 with a projected net income of $7 billion. 📊

🌱 Record Soybean Crush: NOPA's July numbers are in! With 182.9 million bushels processed, it's the highest for July ever, surpassing expectations. However, soybean oil stocks dipped to 1.5 billion pounds, hitting the lowest since last December. 📉

🌾 USDA Proposes Easing 45Z Tax Credits: Secretary Vilsack shared plans to modify the 45Z requirements, making it more practical for farmers by allowing more diverse practices and extending credits beyond just corn and soybeans. 📜

🏛️ Kamala Harris Targets Corporate Price-Gouging: Set to announce a proposal this Friday, Harris is taking aim at industry giants, especially in food and groceries, to tackle price-gouging and protect consumers. She's also eyeing cuts in drug and housing costs. 🗣️

🌍 US Corn Exports Slump: Last week's export sales were disheartening, hitting a marketing-year low with only 5 million bushels sold. 📉

🌦️ US Drought Update: The drought monitor shows slight improvements in Ohio and Kentucky, but worsening conditions in Missouri and Illinois. The majority of the Corn Belt experienced dry and cool conditions last week. 🌾