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國際時事跟讀 Ep.K644: Argentina's Dilemma: The Love for Dollars and the Pesos' Future

In Argentina, the allure of the US dollar is strong, as citizens grapple with rampant inflation exceeding 100% and a relentless devaluation of their local currency, the peso. María Barro, a 65-year-old domestic worker in Buenos Aires, exemplifies this struggle. Each month, she converts her peso salary into dollars as a safeguard against the eroding value of the peso.
在阿根廷，美元的誘惑力很強，因為市民們正在努力應對超過100％的嚴重通貨膨脹和當地貨幣披索的不斷貶值。瑪麗亞·巴羅（María Barro）是一名居住在布宜諾斯艾利斯的65歲家政工，她體現了這種掙扎。每個月，她都要將她的披索薪水換成美元，作為對披索不斷貶值的保護措施。

However, the fate of the peso now hangs in the balance, as Javier Milei, a libertarian radical, emerges as a formidable contender in the upcoming presidential elections. Milei, who faces stiff competition from both right-wing and left-wing traditional candidates, has made the bold promise of dismantling the central bank and adopting dollarization, making Argentina the largest experiment of its kind in Latin America.
然而，披索的命運現在岌岌可危，自由主義激進份子哈維爾·米萊伊（Javier Milei）在即將到來的總統選舉中嶄露頭角。米萊伊將面臨來自傳統的右翼和左翼候選人的激烈競爭，他大膽承諾解散中央銀行並實行美元化，使阿根廷成為拉丁美洲進行此類實驗中規模最大的國家。

Barro acknowledges the appeal of a dollarized economy but remains undecided about Milei's aggressive approach, marked by frequent expletive-laden outbursts against opponents, including the Pope. The debate over Milei's dollarization proposal has polarized opinions. Supporters argue that it offers a solution to the staggering inflation, while critics view it as impractical, fearing the loss of control over interest rates and money supply.
巴羅承認美元化經濟的吸引力，但對米萊伊的激進方式持保留意見，後者經常對包括教皇在內的反對者大放厥詞。米萊伊的美元化提案引發了兩極化的爭論。支持者認為這是解決驚人通貨膨脹的方法，而批評者則認為這是不切實際的，他們擔心會失去對利率和貨幣供應的控制。

Juan Napoli, a Senate candidate from Milei's party, Liberty Advances, concedes that Argentina is not yet prepared for full dollarization and suggests a gradual transition over a span of nine months to two years. He underscores the need for political consensus and sufficient reserves.
米萊伊所屬的自由進步黨的參議院候選人胡安·納波利（Juan Napoli）承認，阿根廷還沒有準備好全面實施美元化，建議在九個月到兩年的時間內進行逐步過渡。他強調需要政治共識和足夠的儲備。

Dollarization has been attempted in various forms in other countries, with outcomes ranging from success to abandonment. Argentina had a brief experience with dollar pegging in the 1990s, which ultimately ended in crisis and currency devaluation. The nation's potential full-scale dollarization would be a unique and colossal endeavor, given its size and economic significance globally.
美元化在其他國家以不同形式嘗試過，結果從成功到放棄不等。阿根廷在1990年代曾經短暫實行美元鎖匯，但最終危機爆發，貨幣貶值。如果全面實行美元化，將是一個獨特且龐大的嘗試，考慮到其在全球的規模和經濟重要性。

Despite the country's challenges, some Argentines remain skeptical of dollarization, fearing dependence on the United States. Recent polls indicate growing opposition to the idea, even as inflation continues to rise.
儘管面臨種種挑戰，一些阿根廷人仍對美元化持懷疑態度，擔心會依賴美國。最近的民意調查顯示，盡管通脹持續上升，但越來越多的人反對這個想法。

Milei's rivals, Economy Minister Sergio Massa and conservative ex-security minister Patricia Bullrich, have rejected the notion of dollarization as unworkable. The government's $44 billion loan program with the IMF further complicates economic policy decisions, with dollarization becoming part of the discussion.
米萊伊的競爭對手，經濟部長塞爾希奧·馬薩（Sergio Massa）和保守的前安全部長帕特里夏·布利奇（Patricia Bullrich），均反對美元化的概念，認為不可行。政府與國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）的440億美元貸款計劃進一步複雜化了經濟政策的決策，美元化成為討論的一部分。

For many Argentines, the trauma of past financial crises, such as the "corralitos," where deposits were seized or forcibly converted, has left deep scars and fueled a preference for holding dollars outside the banking system. Consequently, reconnecting these dollars with the formal financial system has become a pressing issue.
對許多阿根廷人來說，過去金融危機的創傷，如1999年和2002年的"corralitos"，其中存款被沒收、凍結或強制兌換，已留下深深的傷痕，並激發了他們將美元保存在銀行體系之外的偏好。因此，重新將這些美元與正式金融體系重新聯繫已經成為一個迫切的問題。

In conclusion, Argentina stands at a crossroads as it grapples with the allure of the US dollar amid economic turmoil. Milei's proposal to adopt dollarization, while divisive, offers a potential solution to the nation's longstanding inflation problem. However, the complexities, potential risks, and the deep-seated distrust of the peso make this a contentious issue that will likely continue to dominate Argentina's political landscape for some time to come.
總之，阿根廷在應對經濟困難時，面臨著對美元的吸引力。米萊伊提出採用美元化的提議，雖然有爭議，但提供了解決該國長期通脹問題的潛在方案。然而，披索存在的複雜性、潛在風險以及對其深深的不信任使得這個問題充滿爭議，可能將繼續主導阿根廷政治格局相當一段時間。
Reference article: https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/argentina-dollar-love-affair-agonizes-over-divorcing-peso-2023-09-05/