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國際時事跟讀 Ep.K991: Kashmir Crisis: Deadly Attack Triggers New India-Pakistan Conflict

Highlights 主題摘要：

• A terrorist attack killing 26 tourists in Kashmir has ignited severe diplomatic crisis between India and Pakistan.
• India suspended the historic Indus Water Treaty, potentially threatening millions who depend on shared water resources.
• Military escalation risks between nuclear-armed neighbours echo dangerous parallels to the 2019 Balakot crisis.

A brutal terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir has thrust nuclear-armed India and Pakistan toward dangerous confrontation. Last week, militants massacred 26 tourists including 25 Indians and one Nepali national in Pahalgam's remote valley. Gunmen specifically targeted male victims, with survivors reporting attackers accused some tourists of supporting Prime Minister Modi's policies. This horrific incident unfolded in an isolated area accessible only by foot or horseback, highlighting the catastrophic vulnerability of civilians caught in this territorial dispute.

在印度一側的喀什米爾發生了一場殘酷的恐怖襲擊事件，將擁有核武的印度和巴基斯坦推向危險對抗。上週，武裝份子在帕哈爾加姆偏遠山谷中屠殺了 26 名觀光客，包括 25 名印度人和 1 名尼泊爾人。槍手特別鎖定男性受害者，有倖存者報告稱，襲擊者指控某些遊客支持印度總理莫迪的政策。這起駭人聽聞的事件發生在僅能透過徒步或騎馬抵達的偏僻地區，凸顯了平民在此領土爭端中的災難性脆弱性。

New Delhi responded with unprecedented diplomatic aggression, accusing Pakistan of orchestrating cross-border terrorism. The retaliatory measures were severe: closing the crucial Wagah border crossing, implementing draconian restrictions on Pakistani visas, and forcibly expelling military attachés from Islamabad's embassy. Most alarmingly, India suspended participation in the 1960 Indus Water Treaty, a diplomatic achievement that has miraculously survived three major wars. Pakistan immediately denounced this move as potentially catastrophic, declaring that any interference with water resources would constitute grounds for war. This dispute threatens hundreds of millions dependent on the Indus River system flowing from Tibet through Kashmir to Pakistan.

新德里以前所未有的外交攻勢作為回應，指控巴基斯坦策劃跨境恐怖主義。報復措施十分嚴厲：關閉兩國至關重要的瓦加邊境，對巴基斯坦簽證實施嚴苛限制，並招回駐點首都伊斯蘭馬巴德使館的軍事武官。最令人震驚的是，印度暫停參與 1960 年《印度河用水條約》(Indus Water Treaty)，這項外交成就曾奇蹟般地度過三次大規模戰爭。巴基斯坦立即譴責此舉可能帶來災難，宣稱任何干預水資源的行為都將構成戰爭理由。這場爭端威脅著數億依賴印度河 (Indus River) 水系的人口，該河系從西藏流經喀什米爾再抵達巴基斯坦。

The contested Kashmir region has dominated India-Pakistan relations since 1947's partition created two nations from British colonial India. Both countries claim complete sovereignty over the mountainous territory while controlling different segments, having sacrificed thousands of lives in three devastating wars. The situation deteriorated dramatically in 2019 when Modi's Hindu-nationalist administration unilaterally stripped Kashmir's constitutional autonomy, triggering massive protests and militant resurgence. Despite government claims of reduced violence following this controversial action, the Pahalgam massacre brutally demolished such narratives. Multiple militant organisations continue waging insurgency, demanding either complete independence or merger with Pakistan, while India maintains these groups operate with direct Pakistani state sponsorship.

自 1947 年英屬印度分裂成兩個國家以來，有爭議的喀什米爾地區一直主導著印巴關係。雙方國家雖控制不同地區，但都宣稱對這片山區擁有完整主權，為此在三場毀滅性戰爭中付出了數千生命的代價。局勢在 2019 年急劇惡化，當時莫迪的印度教民族主義政府單方面剝奪喀什米爾的憲法自治權，引發大規模抗議和武裝反叛。儘管政府聲稱此爭議行動後暴力行動減少，但帕哈爾加姆屠殺事件殘酷地粉碎了這些說辭。多個武裝組織持續發動叛亂，要求徹底獨立或與巴基斯坦統一，而印度則堅稱這些團體受到巴基斯坦國家直接支持。

The international community, led by United Nations representatives, has pleaded for restraint as both nuclear powers edge dangerously close to military confrontation. Pakistani leadership has categorically rejected involvement accusations while pledging cooperation with neutral investigations. Nevertheless, India has already demonstrated military readiness through naval missile exercises, while security forces intensify counterterrorism operations throughout Kashmir. Political analysts draw troubling parallels to 2019's Balakot crisis, when India conducted unprecedented airstrikes inside Pakistani territory following another Kashmir attack.

以聯合國代表為首的國際社會，在這兩個核武強國危險地走向軍事對抗時，懇請雙方保持克制。巴基斯坦領導層斷然否認涉入指控，同時承諾配合中立調查。然而，印度已透過海軍導彈演習展示軍事準備，同時安全部隊在整個喀什米爾加強反恐行動。政治分析家將當前情勢與 2019 年的巴拉科特 (Balakot) 危機相提並論，當時印度在另一起喀什米爾襲擊事件後，對巴基斯坦領土進行了前所未有的空襲。

The current escalation endangers not only regional stability but also crucial bilateral agreements like the water-sharing treaty that remarkably endured previous conflicts. Anti-Pakistan demonstrations have erupted across Indian cities, potentially fueling dangerous anti-Muslim sentiment nationwide. As public anger intensifies in both countries, the global community anxiously monitors developments for signs of military action. The stakes couldn't be higher: any miscalculation between these nuclear-armed neighbours could trigger catastrophic consequences far beyond South Asian borders. Experts emphasise that only diplomatic de-escalation can prevent this dangerous standoff from spiraling into full-scale war.

當前的情勢升級不僅危及區域穩定，還威脅到水資源共享條約等關鍵雙邊協議，這些協議曾驚人地挺過先前的衝突。反巴基斯坦示威在印度各城市爆發，可能引發全國性的反穆斯林情緒。隨著兩國民眾怒火升溫，全球社會焦慮地監控事態發展，尋找軍事行動的跡象。風險已到極點：這些核武鄰國間的任何誤判，都可能引發遠超南亞邊界的災難性後果。專家強調，唯有外交降溫才能阻止這場危險對峙演變成全面戰爭。

Keyword Drills 關鍵字：

1. Confrontation [noun. a serious fight or argument between people or groups]: A brutal terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir has thrust nuclear-armed India and Pakistan toward dangerous confrontation.
2. Catastrophic [adjective. extremely harmful or serious, causing great damage]: This horrific incident unfolded in an isolated area accessible only by foot or horseback, highlighting the catastrophic vulnerability of civilians caught in this territorial dispute.
3. Deteriorated [verb. become worse or weaker]: The situation deteriorated dramatically in 2019 when Modi's Hindu-nationalist administration unilaterally stripped Kashmir's constitutional autonomy, triggering massive protests and militant resurgence.
4. Counterterrorism [noun. actions taken to prevent terrorist attacks]: Nevertheless, India has already demonstrated military readiness through naval missile exercises, while security forces intensify counterterrorism operations throughout Kashmir.
5. Miscalculation [noun. a mistake in judging or estimating something]: The stakes couldn't be higher: any miscalculation between these nuclear-armed neighbours could trigger catastrophic consequences far beyond South Asian borders.

Reference article: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/24/india/pahalgam-india-pakistan-attack-explainer-intl-hnk