On todays episode of the WTFinance podcast I interviewed Jonathon Karelse, CEO of Northfind Management and author of the recently released book "Histories of the Future: Milestones in the Last 100 Years of Business Forecasting". 

Buy the Book here - https://www.amazon.co.uk/Histories-Future-Milestones-Business-Forecasting-ebook/dp/B09T21R45L/

On the podcast we talked about what is forecasting, understanding probability, deterministic forecasting creating fragilities and surprise from Jonathon's research for the book. I hope you enjoy!

0:00 - Introduction
0:29 - Influence for writing the book?
3:55 - What is forecasting?
6:00 - Understanding probabilities
6:45 - Being too deterministic in forecasting creating fragilities in systems?
9:55 - Black swans in forecasting?
15:15 - Antifragile systems that are stronger during volatility
19:10 - How did business forecasting begin?
25:00 - Other important milestones in forecasting
34:17 - Any surprising things when you were researching?
36:30 - Future of forecasting?
40:30 - Stabilising supply chains and onshoring? 
44:26 - One message to takeaway from interview or book?

Jonathon is leading the conversation that Behavioral Economics represents the next big idea for decision making and planning in many companies. He believes that by understanding the causes of biases and heuristics in planning, organizations can make rapid improvements in real-world performance.

As a frequent contributor to the Institute of Business Forecasting (IBF) and APICS, the Association for Supply Chain Management, Jonathon tracks trends and directly influences best practices in Demand Planning and S&OP. He has been cited for his work on Forecast Value Add (FVA) analysis; the integration of Judgement and Business Intelligence into statistical forecasting; and Conflict Resolution in consensus forecasting.

Jonathon Karelse:
 
Website - https://jonathonkarelse.com/
Twitter - https://twitter.com/JKarelse
LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathonkarelse/

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