The Ever.Ag Podcast

Hog Talk – August 28, 2024


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In the latest edition of the Hog Talk podcast from Ever.Ag Insights, we lay out the fall outlook for the hog market, preview next month’s Hogs and Pigs report, discuss how the retail meal deals have helped pork demand, and look forward to US exports and global pork production.

Listen in on the tailwinds and headwinds of the hog market with host Mike McGinnis and panelists Steve Ring and Taylor Coughlin.

Questions or comments? Topics you’d like to hear us discuss? Contact us at [email protected].

Show Transcript

(Transcript auto-generated)

00;00;00;10 – 00;00;08;26

VOICEOVER
Future trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this segment is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

00;00;08;28 – 00;00;29;12

MIKE
Hello again and welcome to Hog Talk, brought to you by Ever AG Insights. Each week we talk with subject matter experts on news and topics affecting the hog markets. I’m your host, Mike McGuinness. We get started with a review of the markets. Today is Wednesday, August 28th, and the October Lean hog futures are trading around 8160 per 100 weight, up from a recent low of 6832.

00;00;29;13 – 00;00;41;02

MIKE
Hit in July. Turning to our guest this week, it’s our privilege to have Steve Ring, ever AIG’s senior advisor, and Taylor Kaufmann, ever AIG’s director of commercial proteins. Thanks to both for joining us today.

00;00;41;03 – 00;00;42;00

STEVE
Thanks for having us, Mike.

00;00;42;06 – 00;01;03;18

MIKE
Thanks, Mike. You bet. Well, we take a look at the lean hog futures market. First up, 7.29% last week. And that market performed higher than 52 other stock indexes and bond ETFs also currency and commodity markets. So a whole list of all of those markets the lean hog futures at the top. What drove the market to be so strong.

00;01;03;18 – 00;01;05;11

MIKE
And Steve if you want to talk first.

00;01;05;14 – 00;01;26;17

STEVE
Sure. Well part of it you already hit on. We saw the October contract trade down almost to $68 in July. And that’s not normally when you would expect your low to be places in the middle of the summer. So the the market has gotten too cheap relative to the fundamental market to respect. Community managed money was sitting on short futures.

00;01;26;17 – 00;01;46;24

STEVE
You had producers that had hedging gains that you know were afraid to lift them, and you finally found a bottom. So it’s the old adage low prices cure low prices. We got it too cheap and we saw a bounce. And then, you know, we were coming off of out of fairness. We had big supplies last winter. You’ve got a consumer that maybe has pulled back slightly.

00;01;46;24 – 00;02;09;04

STEVE
You still got prop 12 issues that are being realized and affecting the supply that needs to move throughout the rest of the country. But I see that as some technical bounce and then just some profit taking. And then when you finally got up to some of the moving averages, like hitting a 100 day in the 200 day moving averages, all of a sudden you started to blow out maybe some short traders.

00;02;09;04 – 00;02;32;24

STEVE
And that added to this last push on up. So it’s a combination of things. But you know, keep in mind that the index last year on August 23rd, we were trading at 9640. This year we were down to 8786. So we’re up almost 9% just because of consumer demand and maybe slightly larger supplies because of heavier weights and slightly bigger numbers.

00;02;32;26 – 00;02;45;15

MIKE
And we’ll get to demand here in a moment. The cash hog market also of late, gained 81% in the first half of the year. I’d like to have you address that strength. And can that carry over to the second half of the year?

00;02;45;16 – 00;03;06;02

STEVE
It does follow, you know, we had this big supply is larger than what the demand was, what the Packer capacity was. Then you throw in their issue in January. And so we had some pigs backed up that we had to get work through. And we finally did. And whenever the Packers are being pushed hard, they’ll push per cash prices down.

00;03;06;02 – 00;03;28;25

STEVE
They don’t need as many pigs and they’re able to keep that pressure and spread between what the meat prices and what the cash price is. The downside is if you look at the last pig crop report, this is the June report, and we’ll get an updated one here in about 30 days. But the last pig crop report would indicate that we’re going to have six weeks of kills of two seven or greater in the fourth quarter.

00;03;28;25 – 00;04;00;07

STEVE
Keep in mind, Perry, Iowa is about 8000 head a day that close this year. So we’re going to have 40,000 smaller capacity to try to work through with six weeks. And I know the USDA numbers would indicate about three weeks of two seven or greater. Doctor Meyer, with his estimates, you know, looking at burrowing intentions and digs per letter up slightly, would would say there’s about six weeks now the guys that are selling pigs every day and talking with the Packers seem to think that maybe those numbers are on the high side.

00;04;00;07 – 00;04;09;08

STEVE
And let’s hope that they are, because if not, we will see a return to wide margins. I don’t know if we’ll get as low as what we did last year, but you can’t rule it out.

00;04;09;10 – 00;04;18;12

MIKE
Taylor. The pork cut out shined in July. Was that a summer fling? Hams got the credit for the rally. What will hold up the cutout going forward in the fall?

00;04;18;13 – 00;04;38;24

TAYLOR
Yeah, I was going to say throughout the year, all the different primals have kind of had their day in the sun, but this market’s really been driven by both the ham and the belly complex, which you know, together those make up about 40% of what that cutout complex equates to. So on the ham side you’ve really had some strong export interest from Mexico primarily obviously a massive trade partner for us.

00;04;38;24 – 00;05;00;04

TAYLOR
They’re making up 35 to 40% of our our exports. And they’ve been very price sensitive kind of trading. And you know 80 cent to dollar mark on the ham primal. We kind of saw that break out in July to as high as 115. They’re on the primal and can tell there’s a little bit of overheating. Just because we’ve had about 5% declines for the last four weeks straight, just kind of compounding on those losses.

00;05;00;04 – 00;05;17;15

TAYLOR
But the negotiated volume that we’ve seen in the market definitely suggests that there’s been some bargain buyers that are stepping back in. So the demand is still alive and well there. It’s just, you know, taking advantage of the prices now that they’ve kind of overheated and softened before demand steps back in belly side. You know, I think Steve alluded to it earlier.

00;05;17;16 – 00;05;43;16

TAYLOR
I think one of the things that our group is really delve deep into is just some of the ramifications around prop 12 implementation. And, you know, California with how much meat that they consume, and now pushing a lot of that volume back on the other 49 states. I think that that could be a rationalization for why you’ve seen belly markets, which tend to be one of the most volatile cuts within the complex, be very subdued this year between, you know, a buck 30 to a buck 50 and a pretty sturdy trading range for those in July.

00;05;43;16 – 00;06;04;03

TAYLOR
You really did see it kind of break out and show some new highs. After pushing the limit in the March April time frame. I think a lot of that can be attributed to these foodservice $5 meal boxes and other promotional items that are going on, all kind of coinciding in this this value bidding war mean a lot of them had bacon as kind of a center of attraction or, you know, ancillary thing that could be added to the meal.

00;06;04;03 – 00;06;18;24

TAYLOR
So you really just kind of had this concerted effort of a lot of push on that particular item. And I think that the expectation is, you know, some of those deals, you know, now call it a month or a month less in circulation. And so losing a little bit of their allure, and also a few of them are actually concluding here at the end of August.

00;06;18;24 – 00;06;23;02

TAYLOR
So we’ll see what demand kind of holds. Now post those promo windows.

00;06;23;02 – 00;06;32;05

MIKE
U.S. exports remain strong. Cold storage inventories are low. Yet the talk is that the hog market could face headwinds to start the second half of the year.

00;06;32;05 – 00;06;59;15

TAYLOR
Why? I think it’s a combination of some of the stuff that Steve was saying of you still have pretty high farrowing intentions, a really large reading herd, some reluctance to liquidate from the producer community, and just really, really efficient breeding practices with large litter sizes, which are leaving us pretty oversupplied. The surveys are going out relatively soon for the Hogs and Pigs report here at the end of September, which will give us a good updated view on, you know, what the industry is looking at from a fundamental perspective there.

00;06;59;15 – 00;07;20;04

TAYLOR
And then the other thing on the demand side. So that’s definitely from the supply side, but from the demand side, we’ve really been very, very dependent on exports this year. And as I mentioned, primarily Mexico. And I think that there’s some skepticism or concern that Mexico could maybe lose its pace of how much US pork it’s importing just because they have a new president elect coming in.

00;07;20;04 – 00;07;35;25

TAYLOR
We have our own election cycle, which could shake up in the geopolitical relationships there in the trade relationships. And then also from a macro perspective, you’ve had the Mexican peso fall as much as 15 to 20% since May against the US dollar, which is hurting their purchasing power of US product.

00;07;35;28 – 00;07;55;18

MIKE
Well, let’s stay globally and take a look at the pork production. It’s now expected to increase, not decrease. The USDA thought that it was going to decrease in its July report. Production could reach 116.3 million metric tons. By some estimates. That’s up just slightly year over year. But what do you think changed the USDA’s mind?

00;07;55;21 – 00;08;23;14

STEVE
There were several things that were going on. Of course, you had China that had lost money for almost two years prior to 2024. They had oversupplied the market. They finally got their herd, enough of their sales liquidated. But China has increased their weights back up. I went back and found a piece that point to the average weight on a Chinese pig at 135kg, which is almost 297 pounds live.

00;08;23;14 – 00;08;52;29

STEVE
So you’ve got Chinese production, you know, profitability will drive weight and supplies, and so you’ve got good profitability at least through the end of the year. You’ve got Brazil that’s up 4.5%. You got Russia up 7.9%. Vietnam, who had fought some ASF issues, African swine fever issues in 23, has got some of their production issues resolved. And they’re not a huge exporter, but they do export and their production is up 34.2%.

00;08;52;29 – 00;09;15;24

STEVE
So you’ve got several countries that have expanded. And while the EU is down 7.6 between China, of course anything China, when you talk big, you know, Chinese production is up almost 950,000 metric tons. And Vietnam is not far behind it. U.S. production could be up 2.4 to 2.6% this year, year over year because of a little bit cheaper feedstuffs.

00;09;15;24 – 00;09;19;07

STEVE
So you got a combination of things that are all hitting the market, same timeline.

00;09;19;09 – 00;09;28;28

MIKE
Well, and we’ve come to our so what segment of the program, what can processors Steve and Taylor, both of you can weigh in? What can processors and producers take from this conversation?

00;09;29;04 – 00;09;47;29

STEVE
I’ll start it out. First of all, we’re going to have a busy fall bake. It’ll be challenging. Similar to last year. That typically means profitability for the packing sector and at the expense of producers, adding to some of their losses for this year. But as Taylor already hit on, we’ll find out confirmation with the September pig crop report.

00;09;47;29 – 00;10;10;10

STEVE
And you know, I’m still back to my. One of the first things we started with is low prices cure low prices. And if we do get as low and some profitability didn’t quite as bad, there could be some additional fallout and next year might look a lot different. In fact, the last pig crop report would indicate that while we’ve got big supplies, the remainder of 24, the numbers tighten up beginning in 25.

00;10;10;17 – 00;10;11;17

MIKE
Taylor. Your take.

00;10;11;18 – 00;10;31;17

TAYLOR
Yeah, I was going to say I think we just have continued a lot of uncertainty around we’re going to be doing here in the US. The Hogs and Pigs report will definitely help to give a little bit of transparent see into what that looks like. But a lot of the things that could massively impact what the trajectory of this hog market goes, definitely on the demand side, which is kind of a black box with what’s going on with food service.

00;10;31;18 – 00;10;49;09

TAYLOR
You know, retail continues to feature pork, but it’s just found struggles and being able to drive volume in that category. And then the exports, obviously, you know, Mexico has become a very, very strong partner there. But you know, as I mentioned earlier, with all the geopolitical concerns, you know, you don’t know how much that goes away or comes back into what magnitude.

00;10;49;09 – 00;11;17;15

TAYLOR
And so and we just continue to preach with our clients about being informed, being prepared, looking at, you know, how to develop mitigation plans to protect your business, whether it’s kind of the more tried and true products and futures, options, insurance or, you know, something a little bit more outside the box looking at, you know, over the counter things for maybe exposures like their cut out exposure and the different meats that they may be trading in, they’re exposed to as well as, you know, sale markets, another stream of revenue that they receive when holding their animals.

00;11;17;15 – 00;11;24;14

MIKE
Taylor Conklin, ever eggs director of commercial proteins, and Steve Ring, ever a senior advisor. Thanks to both of you for joining us today.

00;11;24;18 – 00;11;25;20

STEVE
Thanks again for having us, Mark.

00;11;25;25 – 00;11;26;08

TAYLOR
Thanks, Mike.

00;11;26;08 – 00;11;36;27

MIKE
And thank you for joining us. If you’ve enjoyed listening to Hog Talk, be sure to tell a friend or to and subscribe to us wherever you listen to your podcast. Thank you to the ever AG Insights Crew for their work on today’s show.

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