The Ever.Ag Podcast

Hog Talk – May 30, 2024


Listen Later

In our new podcast Hog Talk, host Mike McGinnis and fellow swine scholars shed light on news on topics affecting the hog market.

In this episode, Mike is joined by Steve Ring and Taylor Coughlin.

Questions or comments? Topics you’d like to hear us discuss? Contact us at [email protected].

Show Transcript

(Transcript auto-generated)

00;00;00;10 – 00;00;08;18

VOICEOVER
Future trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in the statement is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

00;00;08;20 – 00;00;30;18

MIKE
Hello and welcome to Hog Talk brought to you by ever AG Insights. Each week we talk with subject matter experts on news and topics affecting the hog market. I’m your host mike mcginnis and today is Thursday. May 30th, 2024. Jim eileen hogs are up $0.60 at 9692. The market has been falling since about April 26th. But the good news today, hog market is in the green.

00;00;30;19 – 00;00;41;28

MIKE
Turning to our guest this week, we have Taylor coffin is ever director of commercial proteins and Steve ring ever egg’s senior marketing advisor. And speaking of Steve and Taylor both, welcome to the program.

00;00;42;00 – 00;00;43;22

STEVE
Thanks, Mike. Thanks, Mike. Glad to be on.

00;00;43;27 – 00;01;06;12

MIKE
You bet. Steve, first off, the hog futures market hit a three month low last Friday. Since about April 10th, the mailing hog prices have fallen about $9. We have the July line hog futures up today as we record. But again, is the market pushing this thing too low? Is it oversold considering the upcoming summer months that usually supports a grilling season?

00;01;06;17 – 00;01;36;16

STEVE
It’s a great question. I wonder if put it in perspective, we had maybe a market that was overzealous. We had June hit a contract high of 109 65 in July, hit 111, 25. And you look at the index and it’s at $91 as of yesterday. So July still trading almost $6 above the index. But when you look at it compared to a year ago, we didn’t really start the summer rally until we got to June and the CME index was 7953.

00;01;36;16 – 00;02;04;13

STEVE
So we’re actually running ahead of the index. But it’s the perspective. I think producers got caught up in the perspective that we were going to have stronger prices than what we had last year. It didn’t happen and now we’re looking at $91 that in some years we would be thankful that we had when you’re looking at 80 bucks, but the costs are a lot higher and you know, there’s still some opportunity, although the big concern right now is what’s the consumer going to do this summer?

00;02;04;13 – 00;02;23;22

STEVE
We’re seeing some push back and Taylor probably cover that a little bit when you get to him. But the fact that we’re not producing a lot more pork, in fact, if you look at pork production year over year, we’re only up £10 million, which is less than a 10th of a percent. So it’s not the pork production or the supplies of pork number.

00;02;23;22 – 00;02;44;00

STEVE
Hogs are up, but pounds of pork produced is only up slightly. And we do have higher index for this time of year. So, you know, what’s the perspective? Do we get to the 106 high last summer that we hit on July 28, or are we going to stay flat in this low to mid-nineties? I think we’re oversold. You look at the technicals on the charts, we’re certainly oversold.

00;02;44;02 – 00;02;54;21

STEVE
And I guess at this point there’s some hope, although we’ve been advising clients that if we get a little bit of a rally in here, we want to be looking at putting some protection in place specially for this fall.

00;02;54;22 – 00;03;05;20

MIKE
Well, Memorial Day weekend is now behind us. What now for the hog market as we head toward the Labor Day weekend? The hog market does what and what can we expect maybe this year that we didn’t last year?

00;03;05;20 – 00;03;28;18

STEVE
Well, you always get a rally in the summer. Supplies tighten up. You get the summer heat, so weight gain goes down. You have the winter production in November, December. Because of the summer breeding, you typically see numbers drop off. So we’re expecting based on the March pig crop report, we’re expecting numbers to go down, but still be slightly higher than last year.

00;03;28;18 – 00;03;46;17

STEVE
And we talked off air about the ox and Pigs report. The numbers are going to be getting collected here over the next few days and it’ll be interesting to see where do we shake out because on the last pig crop report, it would show that we would be up about 2.1% on hog numbers. And we’ll just have to see what happens with hog weights.

00;03;46;25 – 00;04;07;06

STEVE
The real concern is what happens after the summer If we’re going to have prices flat or demand flat works back down, at least on the previous pig crop report production increase of almost 3.7%. And even though we see sales reduced, we continue to see productivity gains because of genetics and just because of overall better health.

00;04;07;07 – 00;04;25;21

MIKE
We talked about that on the last program where the industry has seen an increase of one pig per litter and that has really turned out to be a huge number when you stop and think about it. Now, outside investors remain bullish for hogs. Right now, money managers are net long. The lean hog market around 44, 43,000 futures contracts.

00;04;25;21 – 00;04;43;02

MIKE
Index funds added just over 2000 contracts in the lean hog market, extending a long position to a record large 109,248 contracts. So do you see this, Steve, as a price supportive cushion for the hog market? Possibly, let’s say, start selling, I guess?

00;04;43;04 – 00;05;07;19

STEVE
Yeah, exactly. And actually, that’s a good point when you look at individual categories, because the CFTC will break down the individual categories. The managed money shorts are actually about 20,000 contracts below normal, and it’s the managed money longs that look out of sync. But it’s because you don’t have as many shorts early in the market and because of the higher prices, we have a lot more commercial hedges in place.

00;05;07;19 – 00;05;35;27

STEVE
And at some point we’re going to see as we move out of the various contracts, we’re going to see the rolls back into the third month, the October, December, February and into next year. So there’s still room for longs to still come into the market. What we need is something to get them excited. And we’ve seen on the green side when managed money wants to come in and buy something, we saw a $50 rally in B mail in just a matter of days when management decided to go for net shorts in that long.

00;05;35;29 – 00;05;59;10

MIKE
That’s exactly right. That’s why I mentioned the question, because right now in the green market, there are a lot of people watching those positions of the outside investors, the corn and soybean, as well as soy meal and soy oil. The meeting of the minds and the pork industry come together next week at the World Pork Expo. What significance does it have for the industry, Steve, and what presence will ever egg have at this year’s event?

00;05;59;11 – 00;06;23;29

STEVE
Yeah, we always have a booth at the Expo, so we’ll be down in the industry building. It’s going to be interesting to see. You can pretty well follow that profitability. Rather, if you have good profitability, you have more interest Producers come in to visit to learn. They have educational sessions, they have good speakers. We’ll have Joe Kearns and Dr. Steve Meyer both be on the stages during the meetings.

00;06;24;02 – 00;06;45;09

STEVE
We actually hold a pre expo party on Tuesday evening. It’s going to be interesting to see the number of people that show up because you have displays from manufacturer owners, the companies packing companies. The whole industry is well-represented and it’s going to be interesting to see how many people do show up compared to last year because the numbers last year were disappointing.

00;06;45;12 – 00;06;55;16

STEVE
And my opinion, we try to meet with existing clients, we’ll have side meetings and then we also set up meetings with prospective clients trying to see if we can grow our our basil.

00;06;55;19 – 00;07;01;19

MIKE
What do you think the hot topic is going to be this year? Is it demand or disease or something? Also starts of the D.

00;07;01;26 – 00;07;25;12

STEVE
Yeah, well, disease is always the topic of conversation, especially if you happen to be biting through one of the dreaded purse strings. And otherwise it’s what are people thinking as far as future expansion? What’s the demand situation? Basically, the things we’ve already talked about is going to be on producers minds and what happens, what’s the outlook this year, next year, and 5 to 10 years out?

00;07;25;17 – 00;07;40;01

MIKE
Great. Let’s turn to Taylor. The USDA’s pork cut out, as we mentioned a minute ago, is reached as high as about $103 in the last week. Continues to show strength for this market. Right. What are the seasonal factors Taylor, in play for the cut out right now?

00;07;40;02 – 00;07;56;29

TAYLOR
Yeah absolutely been really interesting to see that ever since the start of April the cut out has literally oscillated between plus or $5 from that $100 mark. We’ve really seen it as kind of a psychological level. I like Steve’s word. There is overzealous with the market. I think you had much stronger cut out prices to begin the year.

00;07;56;29 – 00;08;15;19

TAYLOR
And we really had kind of a failure to launch here through the dollar mark a non were to kick off this summer season than we typically see stronger prices and I think a lot of it is kind of a little bit of recency bias where you had 2020 through 2023, where we’ve had strong prices, where the high watermark for the cut out has been, you know, as high as 120 plus.

00;08;15;19 – 00;08;29;02

TAYLOR
And now we’re transitioning kind of back to more status quo years where that’s average closer to 19 $95 mark. So I’d call it a little bit of a transition period, but also just had high expectations go into the year and demand hasn’t necessarily lived up to them.

00;08;29;02 – 00;08;47;26

MIKE
That was my next question. Do you see export strength waning and does that signal for any concern about the sales pace? Weekly export sales as of May 16th were down below the four week average and below the previous week, and also cumulative sales for the 2024 marketing year are down from a year ago and below the five year average.

00;08;47;26 – 00;08;52;14

MIKE
So the question to you, do you see export strength waning? Any concerned about the sales pace?

00;08;52;19 – 00;09;19;17

TAYLOR
So we’ve been, I’d say, pleasantly surprised to begin the year. Accumulated exports have been up about 5% year to date, only kind of trailing 2020 and 2021 with record year basis that we’ve had. And I think that when you do look at the outstanding sales that are there, it is pretty low by historical standards. I think a lot of it has been, you know, one of the biggest drivers in the exports have been, you know, Mexico with a really strong Mexican peso, improving their buying power.

00;09;19;17 – 00;09;37;17

TAYLOR
It’s at about an eight year, nine year high, which has really been a boon to their interest in US pork. But you’ve also seen a couple of markets like China and Japan backing down a little bit. And there have been other like South Korea who stepped in, kind of filled some of that void. But really, Mexico has been the one that’s kind of set the tone in terms of where the market goes.

00;09;37;17 – 00;09;55;26

TAYLOR
I don’t think that, you know, as we look through the balance of the year, it’ll be interesting to see if we can sustain this pace. Do you think the other repetitive pork exporting nations, do you, or slowing down their business and have been lower year over year over the past couple of years here in the U.S. has now kind of overtaken that sector as the largest global pork exporter?

00;09;55;26 – 00;10;05;10

TAYLOR
So it’ll be really interesting. I think that last week the U.S., MERS or the United States Meat Export Federation come together. And there’s some really interesting learnings that came about that.

00;10;05;10 – 00;10;16;13

MIKE
Yeah, they basically said they’d like to see demand exports and also the demand for different types of pork cuts to be promoted. And do you think that is the needed focus?

00;10;16;13 – 00;10;42;16

TAYLOR
Yeah, I think so. As I understood it, the USDA released about 300 million in funding to 66 different American organizations in this regional agriculture promotional program. U.S. Smith was awarded about $21 million of that. We’re very close. Our organization is with the US Semi. We have a lot of conversations to understand the trajectory of US exports in that work sector there and I do think that it’s a little bit of leaning into the strengths.

00;10;42;16 – 00;11;01;12

TAYLOR
The US is pretty unique as it comes to global trade. We export about 25 to 30% of our production in any given year. So global trade has massive implications in terms of how high these markets go and what demand looks like. You know, some of the feedback that came out of those meetings were things like leaning into existing strengths.

00;11;01;12 – 00;11;24;08

TAYLOR
They had referenced things like the Japanese tend to be heavy buyers of sliced loins and how are different ways to be able to prepare those items to be able to kind of unlock new flavors, utilize them in different dishes? You also had some innovation in terms of things like pork ribeye steaks and Boston, but pork burgers. So utilization of different cuts that may not be pushed to some of those existing markets today.

00;11;24;08 – 00;11;42;07

TAYLOR
And then finally, I think that, you know, there’s plenty of developing economies and stronger purchasing power that’s growing in different areas. And so they also talked about the emphasis of getting into markets like Africa and Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean. So just expanding that global footprint even beyond kind of our traditional customers.

00;11;42;07 – 00;11;57;03

MIKE
And I imagine those are some of the topics that will be discussed at next week’s World Book Expo that starts on June 5th and runs through June 6th. Speaking of June, Steve, the Hogs and Pigs report will come out on June 27th. We’re quite a ways away from it. But any expectations at this point or is it too early?

00;11;57;04 – 00;12;18;15

STEVE
I would guess that because we have seen sales slaughter up slightly over the last few weeks, that we could see a reduction for the reduction in sales. Nothing significant may not be enough, but we’ll have to see how that shakes. And then of course, with the productivity gains continuing, you can’t rule out still having a few more pigs in what the last big property report showed.

00;12;18;15 – 00;12;34;02

STEVE
So it’s an area that traders are going to watch closely and I’m sure other market participants, especially in users, retailers, are going to be looking at potential supplies. So it’s a report that does get looked at every quarter and we’ll see if this one holds any surprises for us, good or bad.

00;12;34;02 – 00;12;39;28

MIKE
And we will be watching as well. Steve Ring and Taylor Coughlin, thank you very much for joining us today by.

00;12;39;28 – 00;12;40;25

STEVE
The do so. Thanks, Mike.

00;12;40;25 – 00;12;41;10

TAYLOR
Thank you.

00;12;41;12 – 00;12;50;23

MIKE
You bet. If you’ve enjoyed listening to hog talk to be sure to tell a friend or two and subscribe to us wherever you listen to your podcast. Thank you to the Ever Egg Insights crew for their work on today’s show.

The following music was used for this media project:

Music: Funky Intro 29 by TaigaSoundProd

Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/9520-funky-intro-29

License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license

Artist website: https://linktr.ee/taigasoundprod

© Ever.Ag 2023, confidential and proprietary.

Disclaimer: TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS ON FUTURES INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE INFORMATION AND COMMENTS CONTAINED HEREIN ARE PROVIDED BY EVER.AG AS GENERAL COMMENTARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS. THIS INFORMATION SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED AS TRADING ADVICE OR RECOMMENDATION WITHOUT FURTHER DISCUSSION WITH YOUR EVER.AG ADVISOR. THIS IS A MATTER OF SOLICITATION.

EVER.AG INSURANCE SERVICES IS A LICENSED INSURANCE AGENCY AND AN AFFILIATE OF EVER.AG. INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IN THIS WEBSITE IS COMPILED FOR THE CONVENIENCE OF THE USER. INFORMATION IS OBTAINED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE AND IS FURNISHED WITHOUT RESPONSIBILITY FOR ACCURACY OR CONTENT. MARKET DATA IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AT ANY TIME. Ever.Ag is a licensed insurance agency in the following states: AZ, CA, CO, CT, FL, GA, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NM, NY, NC, ND, OK, OH, OR, PA, RI, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY.

The post Hog Talk – May 30, 2024 appeared first on .

...more
View all episodesView all episodes
Download on the App Store

The Ever.Ag PodcastBy Ever.Ag

  • 5
  • 5
  • 5
  • 5
  • 5

5

5 ratings


More shows like The Ever.Ag Podcast

View all
The Ramsey Show by Ramsey Network

The Ramsey Show

39,013 Listeners

The EntreLeadership Podcast by Ramsey Network

The EntreLeadership Podcast

4,394 Listeners

AgriTalk by AgriTalk

AgriTalk

152 Listeners

AgriTalk PM by Farm Journal Media

AgriTalk PM

132 Listeners

The Dividend Cafe by The Bahnsen Group

The Dividend Cafe

582 Listeners

The Business of Agriculture Podcast by Damian Mason

The Business of Agriculture Podcast

122 Listeners

The Milk Check by T.C. Jacoby & Co. - Dairy Traders

The Milk Check

21 Listeners

Progressive Dairy Podcast by Progressive Dairy editors

Progressive Dairy Podcast

19 Listeners

Dairy Defined by National Milk Producers Federation

Dairy Defined

4 Listeners

Grain Markets and Other Stuff by Joe Vaclavik

Grain Markets and Other Stuff

342 Listeners

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg by All-In Podcast, LLC

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

9,852 Listeners

Let's Chat Dairy by HighGround Dairy

Let's Chat Dairy

16 Listeners

The Dairy Download by IDFA

The Dairy Download

27 Listeners

Barn Talk by Tork and Sawyer Whisler

Barn Talk

1,649 Listeners

Dairy Insights: Heard Mentality by StoneX Group Inc.

Dairy Insights: Heard Mentality

8 Listeners