Media has gone overboard on the forecast by the Commonwealth Bank that property prices across Australia will fall 10% in 2024.

As consumers, we can rest assured that it won’t happen - because the people making these forecasts have a track record of getting it horribly wrong in their property market predictions.

There are two major things wrong with the media treatment of forecasts like this:-

One is the speed with which media turns a forecast into a fact. It’s not a case of someone forecasting that prices may fall 10% in the future, but it’s presented as: prices WILL fall 10%.

The second is that journalists never check on the forecasting record of the people they’re publicising. If they did, many high-profile forecasters would never appear in media – because they constantly get it wrong.

The Commonwealth Bank’s latest prediction on prices comes from the CBA’s head of economics, Gareth Aird.

Media assumes this is credible because it comes from one of the Big 4 banks and CBA is our biggest mortgage lender. They must know what they’re talking about, right?

Well, actually, NO.

Based on his track record, Gareth Aird is one of the nation’s worst forecasters.

Let’s look at what he predicted in March 2020 as the pandemic first took hold.

He forecast that residential property prices would drop 10% over six months and 20% in the next year, led by steep falls in Sydney and Melbourne.”

BUT in the next 12 months house prices overall rose 7.5%, with Sydney up 8%, Adelaide 9%, Hobart 13%, Canberra 14%, Darwin 16% and Regional Australia by an average of 13%.

Now, let’s look at his forecast at the start of 2021.

In February 2021, Gareth Aird on behalf of the Commonwealth Bank, was forced to admit they’d got it seriously wrong a year earlier and were now predicting price rises.

But their forecast was: House prices will rise 9% in 2021 and unit prices will rise only 5%.

What’s actually happened? House prices have risen 21% and unit prices 13% in the first 10 months of the year alone.

Once again, they’ve underestimated housing markets across Australia. And they continue to discuss Australia as a single unified market, without allowing for many regional differences.

Let’s face it, Gareth Aird would struggle to accurately forecast what happened yesterday.

And why does this failed forecaster think prices will fall in 2024? Because he expects interest rates to rise and this will generate a big drop in prices.

This, I have to say, is kindergarten analysis. Simplistic, misguided and plain wrong.

Regional Victoria continues to be an outstanding performer on price growth, although the sales activity data suggests that some locations have passed their peak.

Regional Victoria has been a strong growth market for past two years – and some of the key locations, like Geelong and Ballarat, have been growth markets for 3-4 years – so it’s not surprising that the markets which have strong for longest are now fading a little.

On the other hand, many locations throughout Regional Victoria stepped on to the growth path only in the past year and still have plenty of uplift still to come.

Meanwhile, Regional Victoria continues to be one of Australia’s outstanding performers on price growth.

Of the 142 locations included in our recent price analysis, only two have failed to record annual growth in their median house prices. Only three have failed to deliver increases in the most recent quarter.

Of the 140 suburbs and towns which had median house price rises in the past year, 137 have grown by 5% or more – and 48 have grown by 20% or more (compared to 25 suburbs in Melbourne with that level of house price growth).

So, in that regard, Regional Victoria is outperforming Melbourne.

Against this background, we have published our new edition of our popular report, Top 5 Regional Victoria Hotspots.

This report is essential reading for anyone planning their investment decisions for the coming year as it provides research-based evidence of the markets we expect to do well in 2022 and beyond.

Get a copy of our new Top 5 Victoria Hotspots report.

Melbourne has defied the negative impacts of multiple long lockdowns  - including the prolonged one that ended in October 2021 - to deliver consistently solid growth in prices right across the metropolitan area.

While Melbourne’s overall price performance is less spectacular than other jurisdictions, but it is extraordinarily positive in the circumstances.

Melbourne has been declared the world’s most locked-down city. Melbourne has endured 262 days, or nearly nine months, of restrictions during six separate lockdowns since March 2020, representing the longest cumulative lockdown for any city in the world.

Despite that, 95% of Melbourne suburbs have recorded growth in their median house prices in the past year and 97% have had growth in the latest quarter. Only nine suburbs across the Melbourne metropolitan area have experienced a decline in median house prices in the latest quarter, which coincided with the city’s latest long lockdown.

Of the 283 Melbourne suburbs in our recent price analysis, 270 have recorded annual price increases, including 235 which have grown by 5% or more.

Melbourne has also maintained a surprisingly high number of suburbs with upward momentum in their sales activity.

In our latest quarterly survey, we identified 153 suburbs with rising sales activity, despite all the restrictions which afflicted the market – including a lockdown that extended from early August through to late October.

This is the third highest total of rising suburbs in the six years we have conducting these quarterly surveys.

Against that backdrop we have published our new edition of the Top 5 Melbourne Hotspots report.

Get a copy today to find out which parts of the Melbourne market are tipped to thrive in 2022, as the city embraces a new set of more favourable circumstances, which are likely to include a return of international students and an influx of overseas migrants.

Get a copy of the Top 5 Melbourne Hotspots

The Australian Financial Review, which allegedly is one our most serious and respectable newspapers, recently published a headline and article which declared that Australia is on the cusp of a rental crisis.

It beggars belief that this supposedly credible publication has only just realised that there’s a serious shortage of rental properties in Australia.

Australia has had a chronic shortage of homes available for rental for several years and it’s getting worse year by year because our state and federal politicians appear to be oblivious to the problem.

Right now, locations with vacancy rates below 1% are the norm across the nation.

This means there’s a dire shortage of rental properties almost everywhere.

And, as a consequence, rents are rising strongly in cities and regional centres all over the country.

In many locations, hopeful tenants can’t find a rental property at any price. But where there is something available, there’s lots of competition from other prospective tenants – and it’s common for people to offer more than the asking rent to beat the competition.

So rents are rising, almost as fast as sale prices.

But this is not a new situation. This has evolved over the past five years, as a result of a series of major decisions by politicians and bureaucrats which have discouraged property investment in Australia.

Decisions by various state governments, decisions by the Federal Government, mandates from APRA and rhetoric at the last two Federal Elections by the Labor Party – have all worked to discourage property investors.

Rental vacancies are an outcome of investor activity. When investors buy real estate, homes become available for tenants to rent.

But, for the past few years, investors have been sitting on the sidelines.

So, steadily, little by little, vacancies have become smaller and smaller.

The only way to fix this problem is for governments to stop discouraging investors and do the opposite – provide incentives for investors to get into the market and lift the pool of homes available for rental.

The bottom line - is that this situation is not great for people who need to rent, it IS a great time to be a landlord in Australia.

New data on property prices from CoreLogic indicates that the average Australian home has increased in value by $127,000 in the past 12 months.

While that sounds spectacular, there are suburbs and towns in this country where median house prices have grown that much in the last three month alone.

Looking more broadly, if we look at median house prices in some of our cities a year ago and compare them with the current situation, we find that the median house price in Brisbane has increased by almost $200,000 in the past 12 months, and there’s been a similar rise in Hobart.

In Sydney, the median house price is now $360,000 higher than it was a year ago.

The latest price data, up to the end of November, reveals that Australian house prices show no sign of slowing down.

There was a further increase of 1.4% nationally in November, led by a 2.2% monthly rise in the Combined Regions.

Growth in median house prices in November was led by 3.2% rise in Brisbane, followed by Adelaide (2.6%) and Regional NSW (2.5%). The regional markets in Queensland, Tasmania and South Australia all rose by 2.2% or 2.3%.

In the latest quarter, house prices rose 4.7% nationally and units 3.2%, while in annual terms house prices are up 24.6% and unit prices 14.2%.

The data shows no sign of the slowdown in price growth reported in some sections of the media.

Annual growth in house prices is being led by Regional Tasmania, Regional NSW and Sydney, which have all risen about 30% in the past 12 months.

Other jurisdictions to record big increases include Brisbane, Canberra, Hobart, Adelaide, Regional Queensland and Regional Victoria.

They’ve all increased by between 24% and 28%.

So, while media outlets seem to be competing to be the first to declare an end to the property boom and desperately searching for evidence to support the claim, these latest figures show that price escalations at continuing at exceptional pace in most markets across Australia.

The best way to learn how to build a property portfolio is to speak to people who have done it with resounding success.

On Wednesday evening 24 November Hotspotting provided that opportunity, with a webinar featuring successful property investors.

Hotspotting founder Terry Ryder hosted a discussion with real estate consumers who have created strong portfolios of residential properties which provide positive cashflow and have delivered spectacular capital growth.

They outlined their investment philosophies and the tools they have used to steadily build property portfolios worth many millions of dollars.

Many Australians are looking for guidelines for success with property investment – a simple methodology to guide their decisions on what to buy and where to buy.
One simple formula that I often recommend for success in property investment is this:
• follow the infrastructure trail.
Or, put another way, buy real estate that lies in the path of progress.
Few things impact on real estate markets as dramatically as major new infrastructure spending.
Construction of a new motorway, or rail line, or hospital, or university, generates economic activity and creates jobs, from which emerges demand for real estate.
These kinds of amenities also greatly improve the appeal of the locations that benefit, in the eyes of buyers.
So real estate is boosted in multiple ways when major infrastructure projects happen.
This factor is more relevant to property consumers than ever before, because Australia is entering a period of intense concentration on the creation of major new infrastructure.
Federal and state political leaders intend to generate an infrastructure-led economic recovery in Australia.
This will continue to turbocharge the residential property boom which has been raging across the nation throughout 2021 and will continue in many locations in 2022.
Government plans to fast-track shovel-ready projects will enhance the established trend of rising markets in many parts of Australia.
This makes our National Top 10 report based on the locations poised to benefit the most from big spending on new infrastructure particularly timely.
Buying real estate in these locations provides an additional level of confidence that the property you buy will grow in value over time.
So get yourself a copy of our “Infrastructure-led Economic Recovery: National Top 10” report today.

https://www.hotspotting.com.au/product/infrastructure-national-top-10/

Recently I researched and wrote a report for the nation’s biggest comparison website Canstar, which was called the Rising Stars report.

The report used a series of metrics to assess all the capital cities and the major regional markets across Australia - and then rank them on their prospects for price growth.

The rankings of the 14 major market jurisdictions around the country found that top 2 markets in Australia are Regional NSW and Regional Queensland.

This confirms our view that the most powerful force impacting Australian real estate at the moment is the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle, which has resulted in such strong price growth in regional markets.

I believe this will continue to be the case, given the very powerful forces which are driving demand for real estate in regional areas.

Queensland is proving to be the No.1 destination of choice for Australians relocating from the big cities and also for investors seeking affordable properties with good yields and prospects for capital growth.

So it’s timely that we have published our new edition of the Top 5 Regional Queensland Hotspots report.

This identifies the locations across the regional areas of the state which offer the key features that investors are seeking –

• A reasonable level of affordability
• Good rental returns
• Good prospects for growth

https://www.hotspotting.com.au/product/qld-regional/

Media attention following confirmation of the 2032 Olympics has put increased focus on the potential of the Brisbane property market.

There’s an expectation that the lead-up to this global event will direct a positive spotlight on the Queensland capital and generate a property boom.

The reality is that Brisbane was already a rising market before the IOC made its announcement in July.

• People are migrating to Brisbane from other parts of the nation, attracted by its lifestyle, its affordability and its track record in keeping the pandemic at bay.
• The infrastructure spend is elevated, creating big economic activity and jobs, which is bringing in new residents.
• The latest survey from PIPA indicates Brisbane is the No.1 choice for Australian property investors planning their next move.
• The fact that Brisbane property values are half those in Sydney makes its property attractive to big city buyers.
• Its vacancy rate is much lower than Sydney’s or Melbourne’s and rents are rising. So it’s a very good time to be a landlord in Brisbane.

So Brisbane has big momentum in its property market.

Sales activity has exploded in the past 12 months and that is now leading to price growth.

The key issue for investors is: what to buy and where to buy it.

It’s a mistake to believe that, in this buoyant market, you can buy anywhere and get good growth.

So the new edition of our Top 5 Brisbane Hotspots report is essential reading for anyone thinking of getting into the Brisbane market.

It outlines the particular locations we think are worthy of special attention, as Brisbane embarks on its 10-year property boom.

https://www.hotspotting.com.au/product/top-5-brisbane/

When we published our Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle: National Top 10 report a year ago, our No.3 and No.4 picks were the Mornington Peninsula in Victoria and the Central Coast in New South Wales.

Both have delivered extraordinary price growth in the 12 months since then.

The Central Coast has attracted enormous buyer demand because of its water-based environments at affordable prices close to Sydney – and most of its towns and suburbs have grown more than 20% in the past year.  

The Mornington Peninsula has attracted lots of buyers from Melbourne and many of its suburbs have experienced exponential growth. Most of the Peninsula suburbs have risen more than 20% and two have increased by over 40%. 

Now, all of that is of passing interest only. It tells you where you should have bought a year ago.

But our new edition of the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle report suggests locations that are earlier in the cycle than the Central Coast or Mornington Peninsula and potentially have more upside for investors who buy now.

Our new report outlines 10 locations which have prospects for growth in 2022 and offer a lifestyle outside of the big cities at affordable prices. So get yourself a copy today. This is fast becoming our most popular hotspots report. https://www.hotspotting.com.au/produc...