This episode of the Missing Middle podcast explores a new University of Toronto study that highlights housing affordability as a key factor in declining fertility rates in the United States. Hosts Mike Moffatt and Cara Stern analyze the findings, including the study’s estimate that over half of the fertility decline since 1990 is linked to the shortage of affordable, family-sized homes—resulting in 13 million fewer births. They discuss how delayed household formation, smaller living spaces, and rising costs for family-appropriate housing all contribute, and why similar trends are probably occurring in Canada, especially in high-cost provinces like Ontario and B.C. 

The conversation also addresses misconceptions about fertility, critiques the “all supply is good supply” argument, and examines the structural barriers preventing cities from building enough three- and four-bedroom homes. Mike and Cara explore how unsuitable housing impacts families, newcomers, and children, how municipal regulations add to the shortage, and why resolving this issue requires major zoning, planning, and building-code reforms—rather than simply telling young people to “lower their standards.”

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction 

00:40 Examining a U of T study on fertility and housing affordability

01:40 51% of the decline in fertility rate is attributed to lack of housing

03:52 Unpacking housing affordability and Canada’s fertility rate

05:02 Cara highlights a viewer comment about the cause of fertility decline

08:50 Society needs younger generations to grow not shrink

09:20 Mike outlines the human right to housing

12:45 Who is more likely to be living in unsuitable housing?

14:18 Children are more likely to be underhoused

16:12 All supply is good supply - but is it?

18:50 Consequences of not providing enough housing in cities

22:50 Or/and we could build our cities up

Research Links:

Build, Baby, Build: How Housing Shapes Fertility

BKC_JMP.pdf

She's (Not) Having a Baby | Cardus

Families Are Outgrowing Our Cities, and the Law Says They Shouldn’t Have To

National Occupancy Standard | CMHC

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.