LessWrong (30+ Karma)

“How I Learned To Stop Trusting Prediction Markets and Love the Arbitrage” by orthonormal


Listen Later

This is a story about a flawed Manifold market, about how easy it is to buy significant objective-sounding publicity for your preferred politics, and about why I've downgraded my respect for all but the largest prediction markets.

I've had a Manifold account for a while, but I didn't use it much until I saw and became irked by this market on the conditional probabilities of a Harris victory, split by VP pick.

Jeb Bush? Really? That's not even a fun kind of wishful thinking for anyone. Please clap.

The market quickly got cited by rat-adjacent folks on Twitter like Matt Yglesias, because the question it purports to answer is enormously important. But as you can infer from the above, it has a major issue that makes it nigh-useless: for a candidate whom you know won't be chosen, there is literally no way to come out ahead on mana (Manifold keeps [...]

The original text contained 1 image which was described by AI.

---

First published:

August 6th, 2024

Source:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/awKbxtfFAfu7xDXdQ/how-i-learned-to-stop-trusting-prediction-markets-and-love

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

---

Images from the article:

Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

...more
View all episodesView all episodes
Download on the App Store

LessWrong (30+ Karma)By LessWrong


More shows like LessWrong (30+ Karma)

View all
Making Sense with Sam Harris by Sam Harris

Making Sense with Sam Harris

26,420 Listeners

Conversations with Tyler by Mercatus Center at George Mason University

Conversations with Tyler

2,387 Listeners

The Peter Attia Drive by Peter Attia, MD

The Peter Attia Drive

7,893 Listeners

Sean Carroll's Mindscape: Science, Society, Philosophy, Culture, Arts, and Ideas by Sean Carroll | Wondery

Sean Carroll's Mindscape: Science, Society, Philosophy, Culture, Arts, and Ideas

4,126 Listeners

ManifoldOne by Steve Hsu

ManifoldOne

87 Listeners

Your Undivided Attention by Tristan Harris and Aza Raskin, The Center for Humane Technology

Your Undivided Attention

1,458 Listeners

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg by All-In Podcast, LLC

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

9,040 Listeners

Machine Learning Street Talk (MLST) by Machine Learning Street Talk (MLST)

Machine Learning Street Talk (MLST)

87 Listeners

Dwarkesh Podcast by Dwarkesh Patel

Dwarkesh Podcast

390 Listeners

Hard Fork by The New York Times

Hard Fork

5,431 Listeners

The Ezra Klein Show by New York Times Opinion

The Ezra Klein Show

15,216 Listeners

Moonshots with Peter Diamandis by PHD Ventures

Moonshots with Peter Diamandis

474 Listeners

No Priors: Artificial Intelligence | Technology | Startups by Conviction

No Priors: Artificial Intelligence | Technology | Startups

121 Listeners

Latent Space: The AI Engineer Podcast by swyx + Alessio

Latent Space: The AI Engineer Podcast

75 Listeners

BG2Pod with Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley by BG2Pod

BG2Pod with Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley

459 Listeners