In Moscow's Shadows

Is there a post-mutiny purge of the military going on? What can we learn from the apparent dismissal or detention of figures such as Generals Surovikin and Popov? And what does this mean about the prospects of the war and whether there will be the military coup some seem to be anticipating?

The Dara Massicot (@MassDara) twitter thread I mention starts here.

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There still seems no escaping the fallout from Prigozhin's mutiny, whether we're talking about the fate of Wagner in Africa or those bizarre wig selfies. I take a series of questions from Oligarch/Hetman patrons as a structure to look at what we do - and don't - know at present.

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A shorter episode, because there is still so much about the causes, course and consequences of Prigozhin's mutiny that we still don't know. Instead, I focus in on the spook side: what were the FSB, FSO and GRU doing? To a large degree, the answer is> failing. Will they be taken to account? I doubt it, and this underlines the way that 'late Putinism' is characterised by its refusal or inability to reform.

The previous episode I mentioned looking at Russia's complex mercenary ecosystem is  In Moscow's Shadows 98: Dogs of War (and Racoons).

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Prigozhin's mutiny... or, 36 hours of what-the-hell? It's too close for a really judicious take on this weekend's hijinks, but first thoughts on why Prigozhin did it, what happened, and what this all actually means.

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After the usual quick run-through of war-related news, I consider the rise of mysticism and occultism not just in Putin's circle, but Russia as a whole. Tales of rituals in the Kremlin; the Communist 'battle mage;' predictions of triumph in Ukraine. What is the reason? My view is that it is a response to anomie and despair - but also incubates hope for change, and illustrates a desire for that change. So, however bizarre, it may be grounds for optimism.

The Carnegie article by Ksenia Luchenko I mentioned is here; the FT piece on PMCs here.

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After the inevitable quick look at the Ukrainian counter-offensive (too little to say really about the operation on the ground, but some points to make about the political context), I drill down into the life of Dmitry Patrushev - minister for agriculture and, arguably rather more important, son of Security Council secretary Nikolai Patrushev. Could he be a candidate to succeed Putin, and if so, what would this mean?
 

If Patrushev senior is regarded as one of the grey cardinals, Jr is more of a grey cardigan – undistinguished, unfashionable, yet cosy and comforting for the old men around Putin.
 
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A spat between Wagner's Prigozhin and Chechnya's Kadyrov provides a good opportunity to look at the role of the Chechens in the Ukraine War - or, rather, just how small a role they are playing. Why is that? Because the war is a microcosm of the Putin system in so many ways, and in that system Kadyrov has managed to create a comfortable place in which he loudly performs loyalty while actually exploiting Moscow as far as he can.

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Bakhmut has (probably, kinda) fallen and Belgorod raided. The first is hardly a real defeat for Ukraine nor a real victory for Moscow. The latter may prove more significant, not so much for the raid itself but the dilemmas it imposes on the Russians ahead of the Ukrainian counter-offensive.

In the second half I kick off an occasional series of profiles of the next generation of insider political leaders by looking at Marat Khusnullin, the Deputy Prime Minister in charge of Construction and Regional Development, whose status as a (re)builder could conceivably what Russia will eventually need after Putin.

Anna Arutunyan's Spectator piece I mention is here.

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As a change from the usual, I look through the top six news items currently on the website of Rossiiskaya Gazeta, the main government newspaper of record, on today, Sunday 14 May. What can one learn about the state of Russian politics, intra-elite conflicts, the survival of real journalism and how comfortable Russians are with being global outsiders, based on stories about everything from missile attacks in the Donbas to easier regulations on building sheds?

As websites change, the six stories are:

FT: G7 и ЕС планируют запретить возобновление поставок российского газа

"Фиксируем все разрушения для будущего суда над преступниками": как работает полиция на месте удара крылатыми ракетами Storm Shadow в День ЛНР

В Турции начались президентские и парламентские выборы

Эрмитаж возвращает в Александро-Невскую Лавру раку Александра Невского. Михаил Пиотровский рассказал "РГ" о смысле и условиях передачи раки Церкви
Эксклюзив

В Минстрое разъяснили, почему сараи и бани стало строить проще

Александр Бастрыкин выступил за введение уголовной ответственности для юридических лиц

The episode of the Kennan Institute's The Russia File podcast I mention is here. For Bastrykin's rather more explicit attacks on corruption in the defence-industrial complex, see here.

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It's an easy journalistic shorthand to hall Putin a new tsar (I've done it myself), but what might it mean? Coronation weekend in the UK seems a fitting time to consider the pitfalls for Putinism of its pseudo-monarchic tilt.

In the second part a quickfire look at Ukraine's war of sabotage inside Russia, the incredible shrinking Victory Day parade, and the even more quickly shrinking Prigozhin.

My articles on the drone attack and sabotage campaign are in the Spectator and Sunday Times; the Meduza piece on Mediazona's research about proxy attacks is here.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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