One of the short bonuses provided to Patrons over the 2021-22 Christmas and New Year season, released generally a month later.

Who is Lt. Gen. Dmitry Mironov? It may prove worth knowing about this bodyguard-turned-governor-turned-presidential-aide, in effect Putin's eyes and ears over the security forces, and now you can spend just 13 minutes and feel that you do! How being a bodyguard and an ice hockey player can be one of the best routes to success in Putin's Russia.

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After the Blinken-Lavrov talks, a brief one-segment podcast with a few thoughts on the current state of the dialogue, the risks of conflict, and the chances that Moscow will formally recognise the Donbas and Lugansk 'Peoples' Republics.'

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One of the short bonuses provided to Patrons over the 2021-22 Christmas and New Year season, released later: usually a month, in this case a fortnight, as I think it's worth hearing early in the year!

I freely admit business is not my area of expertise, so who better to give a quick assessment of what may await in 2022 than Ben Aris, Editor-in-Chief of bne Intellinews (https://www.intellinews.com/) and one of the more grounded commentators on ‘Planet Business.’

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials (including retrospectively the archive of past bonus posts) right here. 

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A Russian-led force deploying into Kazakhstan has inevitably had some people talking invasion, some stabilisation. I make no claims to being a Kazakhstan expert and look forward to people who are having the opportunity to work out if this was a coup by President Tokaev against his patron and master Nazarbaev or something else. So instead, I look at the crisis through the Russian lens: why did the CSTO agree to send forces, what are Moscow's interests, and what can we learn from the Russian media messaging?

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To kick off the year, rather than making some grand predictions about Russia, instead I speculate as to what 2022 may offer Putin, Patrushev, Mishustin, Shoigu, Kirienko and Kadyrov. So much will depend on one key decision, whether the system will legitimate itself 'socially' or as a 'fortress.'

The twitter thread on the VTsIOM poll I mentioned is here, and the Riddle 'Key Event of 2021' compilation is here.

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A short, one-segment piece on Russia's proposed new treaties and how, despite what their deputy foreign minister may say, we have to treat them as the basis for some kind of negotiation, and see what comes of it. So long, that is, that we also step up our deterrence, to ensure Moscow has good reason to talk.

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Quite what is Russia's game plan over Ukraine? It seems hard to explain through common sense, so I conduct a thought experiment: what would Putin have to be thinking to believe that a war, with all the consequent and catastrophic political and economic costs, might make sense?

In the second part, I look at some developments in the Russian underworld that suggest that a long nightmare - the prospect of nation-wide mafia wars - might well actually be on the wane.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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Something of a miscellany. First of all, latest thoughts - that turn out to be disappointingly inconclusive - about what's going on with Ukraine.

Then reflections on the appointment of a career cop as the new head of FSIN, the Federal Penitentiary Service, and the prospects for pragmatic reform. (The 2011 blog I mentioned is here.)

Then short and sour comments about the vacuous and dangerous virtue signalling that is the proposed Congressional resolution not to recognise Putin as president “if the autocrat remains in power” after 2024.

And finally, in response to a question from a Patron, observations about how Russians are getting by, and the increased visibility of pawn shops (lombards, in Russian).

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In the first part, a little exploration of MID, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, its decline - and yet why it still ought not to be taken lightly. Then in the second half I look at the current crises in Belarus and Ukraine.

The article by Kadri Liik I mentioned is here, and my earlier 'Free Sergei Lavrov!' article here. I also looked at the Belarus crisis (and why it should not be turned into a 'Putin story') here.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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While still processing a month spent in Russia, I feel that the uniting leitmotif is survivalism, that every sector - from ordinary Russians through the liberal intelligentsia and the bureaucracy, all the way to the Kremlin - are hunkering down, bracing for winter. I explore what this means to each.

Then in the second half I tackle a series of questions sent in by patrons, from whether I felt at risk in Russia (in short: no) to whether you can now get decent parmesan there (in short: yes). If anyone has any other such random questions they'd like me to answer, do send them my way.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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