In Moscow's Shadows

Good news and bad news? Anyway, in the first part I explore what's happening in the Donbas, why it is far too soon to talk of Russia 'winning' and the signs it is digging in for the long haul, and looking for things to call victories.

In the second part, I return to the vexed question of a coup against Putin, and why it is so unlikely - unless and until there is a serious crisis that poses a real threat to elite interests and forces them to make a choice. (And why it matters who has been appointed Minister for Emergency Situations).

The Meduza article I mention is here. I talk a little more about why I don't think we can assume things are going Putin's way in Ukraine in the Telegraph, here.

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When are Russians really going to start feeling the pressure of the shooting war in Ukraine and the economic/political one with the West? I explain why I think September is when they will really start to feel it.

In the second part, I read the coda written for the paperback edition of my Short History of Russia (out now, and a bargain!)

And apologies for some sound issues with background noise, that I could not edit out...

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A week before Victory Day,  I consider some different constituencies' notions of victories. For Patrushev and the hard-liners, they could win politically not despite failing in the war, but thanks to it. Nuclear rhetoric may be scary, but it is also a reflection not of victory but failure. The war and sanctions are reshaping the opportunities in the Russian underworld, and this create new winners and losers. And what does Patriarch Kirill hope to win?

The Moscow Times piece I mentioned is here.

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For an experimental change in format, this episode is given over to a long conversation with Fabian Burkhardt of IOS-Regensburg, who works on Russian elites, institutions and authoritarian politics. He gives his sense on the state and loyalties of the elites, on the chances of any kind of palace coups, and the degree to which we are all flailing around in the fog of (info)war.

As for relevant publications of Fabian's on the topic of the podcast: "Institutionalising Authoritarian Presidencies: Polymorphous Power and Russia’s Presidential Administration" , "Foolproofing Putinism", "The Fog of War and Power Dynamics in Russia’s Elite: Defections and Purges, or Simply Wishful Thinking?"

Useful sources for listeners some of which Fabian used in his prep or mentioned in podcast:

Adam Casey, "Putin Has Coup-Proofed His Regime"

Timothy Frye "Why Regime Change in Russia Might Not Be a Good Idea"

Vladimir Milov "Ugroza perevorota v Rossii. Okruzhenie Putina sposobno na zagovor? FSB, Sovbez, FSO, Genshtab i drugie." [The threat of a coup in Russia. Is Putin's entourage capable to stage a conspiracy? FSB, Security Council, FSO, General Staff and others]

Mark Galeotti "Putin is devouring his children", "Putin’s totalitarian turn"

Stanislav Markus "Meet Russia’s oligarchs, a group of men who won't be toppling Putin anytime soon"

Farida Rustamova "They’re carefully enunciating the word clusterf*ck", "'Now we're going to f*ck them all.' What's happening in Russia's elites after a month of war"

Andrey Pertsev "Blindsided Russia’s top officials were caught off guard by Putin’s war in Ukraine. Many of them want to resign — but can’t.", "Filling the void Putin’s administration no longer hopes to take Kyiv. The Russian president has yet to make a final decision."

Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan "Could the Siloviki Challenge Putin?"

Dossier Center "Beseda na doprose. Deistvitelno li arestovan glava 5-i sluzhby FSB" [Interrogation of Beseda. Was the head of the FSB's Fifth Service really arrested?]

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Who is General Dvornikov, the new Russian operational commander for the war in Ukraine? Will Prime Minister Mishustin and the other technocrats be able to prevent the militarisation of the Russian economy? Four scenarios for the war. And why it's all about 'enemies' versus 'traitors' for Putin now...

The piece on Rusich I mentioned is here, and the Telegraph piece is here.

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Another brief and unedited podcast trying to track some of the latest Ukraine-related Russian stories, all distinctly depressing:

- the war crimes of Bucha (and the Kirill Shamiev twitter thread I mentioned is here)

- comparing Ivan the Terrible and Vladimir (Putin) the Pretty Terrible Too

- the dilemmas for ordinary Russians - and why today's support may not be tomorrow's (the Farida Rustamova piece I mention is here)

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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A brief and thoroughly unedited look at four particular issues relating to Ukraine:
- the 'new strategy' of concentrating on the Donbas
- where's Shoigu?
- fear and loathing in the National Guard
- a comparison with medieval Lithuania (yes, really)

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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Rather than try and follow the day-by-day, I tackle one of the tricky conundra: not just why the Russians have done so badly, but why the Ukraine war hasn't been fought the way the Russian army is meant to fight. My suspicion is that it is what happens when autocracy meets technocracy, and I explain what I mean.

In the second part, I look at the current claims that Colonel General Beseda of the FSB is under arrest and the hints of opening divisions in the security apparatus, as well as the wider question of how we try and make sense of it all in the midst of active information warfare being waged on every side.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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What can one say about the unfolding horror in Ukraine. In this podcast I alight on a few specific issues: Putin's nuclear signalling (at least I hope that's all it is), the idiocy of 'No Fly Zones' in this context, Russian morale, and how, if Putin is re-booting the Brezhnev franchise, this could in the long-term let Russia finally complete its reform process.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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It may well be, as US/UK leaders are saying, that it is too late, that Putin is determined to wage war on Ukraine, but even as we assiduously wargame the potential routes of advance and attack, we should continue to try and peacegame, too, to apply the same imagination to framing any potential settlement. It would be exquisitely difficult and complex, but right up until the tanks cross the border, we ought to try. Today, I try and sketch out some thoughts as to what such a deal - one that does not sell Kyiv down the river - might involve.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. 

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