In The Tranches of Structured Finance

In this episode of In the Tranches of Structured Finance, dv01 Chief Economist Vadim Verkhoglyad answers follow-up questions from dv01's latest consumer credit webinar before breaking down the latest performance and origination trends across consumer unsecured, subprime auto, and Non-QM mortgages.

Using a traffic-light framework, Vadim examines why the three sectors are moving in very different directions: consumer unsecured remains firmly green, subprime auto continues to flash red, and Non-QM sits somewhere in between.

Tune in for insights on:

• Why the U.S. consumer has steadily shifted toward prime credit, and why that trend extends well beyond the post-COVID equity rally
• How fintech personal loans and other newer lending channels are reshaping the consumer credit mix
• Why consumer unsecured originations have reached record levels even as credit standards remain tight
• What elevated impairments, rising loss severity, and LTV trends reveal about risk in subprime auto
• Why Non-QM performance has stabilized from its 2025 peak, even as meaningful differences remain across borrower and documentation types

Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact [email protected] to learn how dv01 data can help you understand what's going on in the market, and to better analyze your whole loan portfolio and securitizations. 

Housing affordability has become one of the defining economic challenges facing households today, but rising mortgage rates are only part of the story. In this episode of In the Tranches of Structured Finance, Vadim breaks down dv01's latest research on the U.S. housing market and explains why affordability has become an increasingly structural challenge shaped by decades of underbuilding, demographic shifts, and construction costs.

Tune in for insights on:

• Why the U.S. housing shortage likely exceeds four million homes when accounting for replacement construction and demolitions
• How county-level building permit data reveals that housing shortages extend well beyond high-cost coastal markets
• Why housing affordability has deteriorated across nearly every developed economy, not just the United States
• What an "Operation Warp Speed" approach to housing could look like—and why transportation, zoning, and housing policy must work together to improve affordability

Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact [email protected] to learn how dv01 data can help you understand what's going on in the market, and to better analyze your whole loan portfolio and securitizations. 

Student debt is back at record highs, but the headline number does not tell the full story. In this episode of In the Tranches of Structured Finance, Vadim Verkhoglyad breaks down dv01’s latest research on the federal student loan market and what the data reveals about the forces reshaping borrower balances and repayment outcomes.

Tune in for insights on:

• Why borrowers over 50 have seen balances grow 55% over the past six years, even as younger borrowers’ balances decline
• How just 7% of borrowers hold 50% of all outstanding student debt
• What income-driven repayment plans reveal about accrued interest and balance growth
• Why graduate and professional programs account for more than 35% of outstanding debt despite representing a relatively small share of borrowers

Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact [email protected] to learn how dv01 data can help you understand what's going on in the market, and to better analyze your whole loan portfolio and securitizations. 

Are consumers actually holding up—or are cracks starting to form beneath the surface?

In this episode of In the Tranches of Structured Finance, Vadim Verkhoglyad returns to break down what the latest data is really saying across consumer credit markets—and where the narrative doesn’t match reality.

We cover:

•  Why consumer unsecured continues to outperform, with record-high cure rates and strong returns—even as newer vintages show signs of stress 
•  How originations just hit new highs, but with a very different (and higher-quality) borrower profile than previous peaks 
•  The growing divide in Non-QM mortgages, where performance continues to deteriorate and risk is becoming more concentrated 
•  A new regional lens on mortgage credit, highlighting why the Northeast is improving while the Southeast and Texas lag 
•  And why subprime auto is flashing warning signs, with rising delinquencies, record-low cure rates, and loss severity becoming the real story 

The takeaway: not all credit markets are moving together—and understanding where they’re diverging is critical for investors right now.

Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact [email protected] to learn how dv01 data can help you understand what's going on in the market, and to better analyze your whole loan portfolio and securitizations. 

In this episode, Vadim revisits a question first explored three years ago: are younger American households actually struggling—or are the headlines missing the real story? Drawing from dv01’s latest research publication, Are the Kids Still All Right?, the discussion cuts through recession narratives to examine income growth, debt dynamics, education outcomes, housing constraints, and spending behavior across younger cohorts.

What emerges is a picture of resilience built on structural shifts in education, income, and financial discipline—paired with one increasingly binding constraint: housing supply.

Key topics discussed:

• Why income growth among Gen Z and Millennials is at multi-decade highs relative to the national average
• How student debt dynamics have fundamentally shifted—and why today’s student debt problem is largely a legacy issue
• The quiet but consequential transformation in higher education, away from for-profit and low-completion institutions
• Why younger households have reshaped spending patterns faster than any other age cohort
• How housing supply shortages have overtaken student debt as the primary barrier to household formation and wealth building

The episode concludes with a clear call to action: without a meaningful expansion in housing supply across price points, individual financial discipline alone won’t be enough to unlock the next stage of economic mobility.

Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact [email protected] to learn how dv01 data can help you understand what's going on in the market, and to better analyze your whole loan portfolio and securitizations. 

In this episode of In the Tranches of Structured Finance, Vadim addresses follow-up questions from dv01’s recent consumer credit webinar and provides an updated view on consumer credit performance across key markets—focusing on what the data is actually signaling for investors.

Key themes include:

• Late-2024 consumer unsecured vintages: Why early performance comparisons—especially across credit tiers—require nuance and patience
• Prepayments and returns: How elevated prepayments are distorting delinquencies and ROI, and why IRR remains the more reliable lens
• Data quality and interpretation: Limitations of bureau-based reporting and the importance of loan-level analysis
• Private credit: Why its growing role does not make markets more opaque
• Market performance update: Consumer unsecured strength versus continued pressure in Non-QM, with losses remaining contained

This episode is designed for market participants looking to move beyond headlines and better understand the forces shaping consumer credit performance today.

Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact [email protected] to learn how dv01 data can help you understand what's going on in the market, and to better analyze your whole loan portfolio and securitizations. 

In this episode, Vadim takes a deep dive into the auto finance market—from the recent headlines surrounding Tricolor’s bankruptcy to the broader trends shaping credit performance and origination behavior. The conversation begins with Tricolor as a case study in data integrity and verification failures, not credit weakness, before widening to examine insights from the CFPB and Experian’s State of the Auto Market Report.

Vadim explores how auto originations are skewing toward older, higher-credit borrowers, why subprime lending volumes are declining even as delinquencies rise, and what performance data tells us about the difference between ABS-backed loans and balance sheet portfolios. 

Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact [email protected] to learn how dv01 data can help you understand what's going on in the market, and to better analyze your whole loan portfolio and securitizations. 

In this episode, Vadim takes a wide-angle look at U.S. household finances, combining the latest TransUnion credit trends with the Federal Reserve’s Distribution of Financial Accounts ("DFA"). He unpacks how early 2024’s spike in delinquencies has given way to broad improvement, why certain regions like Utah, DC, and Texas are worth watching, and what’s really behind shifts in credit card balances and limits. Vadim also examines the Fed’s puzzling real estate valuations, the migration from bank deposits to higher-yield assets, and the stark gap between consumer sentiment and near-record highs in net worth and income.

Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact [email protected] to learn how dv01 data can help you understand what's going on in the market, and to better analyze your whole loan portfolio and securitizations. 

In this episode of In the Tranches of Structured Finance, Vadim revisits the standout questions from dv01’s recent consumer credit webinar with Jefferies, Upgrade, and Prosper—digging deeper into the state of the consumer, credit performance trends, origination behavior, and refinancing dynamics.

Vadim also introduces dv01’s new Closed-End Seconds Benchmark, spotlighting its relevance in today’s housing affordability environment. Tune in for insights on:

• The correlation between origination volumes and credit performance
• The role of housing equity across income cohorts
• Trends in consumer unsecured refinancing and BNPL/home improvement lending
• Why second liens are seeing renewed investor interest post-GFC
• Early performance signals in dv01’s Closed-End Seconds Benchmark

Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact [email protected] to learn how dv01 data can help you understand what's going on in the market, and to better analyze your whole loan portfolio and securitizations. 

In this episode, Vadim takes a data-rich dive into the state of the U.S. housing market through the lens of dv01’s housing affordability and mortgage performance reports, which examines data from Black Knight, Fannie Mae, Philadelphia Fed, Census Bureau, and the FHFA.  The conversation centers on regional affordability, borrower behavior, and what rising mortgage counts reveal about demand.

📌 Highlights include:

• Florida’s insurance crisis: How a surge and recent decline in Citizens Insurance enrollment reflect shifting affordability conditions.
• Affordability's impact on prepayments: How high-cost regions are driving faster refis and shaping loan durations.
• Mortgage growth defies the odds: Despite high rates, mortgage counts are rising—pointing to strong first-time homebuyer activity.
• Home prices and inventory: The hidden floor under housing values, supported by equity, stable underwriting, and constrained supply.
• First-time buyers take the lead: Why new entrants are driving today’s market—and how their credit profiles are holding up.

Read the full reports referenced in this episode on dv01.

Subscribe to our free research to stay up-to-date on the latest trends. Contact [email protected] to learn how dv01 data can help you understand what's going on in the market, and to better analyze your whole loan portfolio and securitizations.