In March 2025, Dario Amodei (CEO of Anthropic) said that he expects AI to be writing 90% of the code in 3 to 6 months and that AI might be writing essentially all of the code in 12 months.[1]

Did this prediction end up being true? We'll charitably interpret the prediction as being about Anthropic itself. Recently, various articles have claimed that Dario said that AIs are writing 90% of the code at Anthropic (7 months after the prediction of 3-6 months was made). This is a reasonable summary of what Dario said when talking to Marc Benioff, but my current understanding is that it isn't true that AIs are writing 90% of code at Anthropic.

The exact text being referenced by these articles is:

Dario: 6 months ago I I made this prediction that, you know, in in 6 months 90% of code would be [...]

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Outline:

(04:05) Takeaways

(08:11) Making predictions is good

(09:25) Appendix: relevant sources and adjudication of the prediction

The original text contained 14 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:

Source:

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.