Israel Update

Don’t let the press fool you: the massive economic pressure is having a huge effect, and it will continue. Mike and Gadi discuss – and rank by likelihood – the different possible outcomes.

Meanwhile high-ranking Israeli officials have been taunting Mike over and over again, about his opinions on Turkey – which are (finally!) shifting. Slightly.

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It’s that time of the cycle when everything is judged by its possible influence on the coming October 2026 elections. Mike and Gadi discuss Netanyahu’s health, the Oct. 7 not-yet-appointed Commission of Inquiry, and the new political party formed by the merging of Bennett 2026 with Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid.

Also in this episode: how the war is going.

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There are several possible developments moving forward on Iran: an improved version of a JCPOA; a resumption of hostilities; or a continuation of the current situation with economic pressure grinding down the Islamic Republic. The US can afford to wait longer than Iran can. Trump is likely to choose between those options based on how he views the impact on China.

Also in this episode: Israel’s imperial Supreme Court thinks it has the authority to remove an elected minister.

Read Mike's piece in Tablet here.

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It is clear at this point who has the leverage: we—the U.S. and Israel—are winning this war. Rather than opening the Strait of Hormuz, Trump is closing it to Iranian shipping. It is unlikely that the Islamic Republic’s military dictatorship can survive this for long. Also in this episode: the China angle of the war, with our guest, the Hudson Institute’s Zineb Riboua. And finally, why Viktor Orbán’s defeat in Hungary matters.

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Mike thinks the achievements of this war are important enough to declare it a victory, though by no means a knock out. Mike and Gadi discuss the pros and cons of the ceasefire, the feasibility of an agreement, and the not unlikely return to military operations two weeks from now.

Also in this episode: What are the reactions in Israel, what effects will the ceasefire have on the ongoing war in Lebanon, and what is “gleeful defeatism?” – All this and more on the new episode of Israel Update.

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The orchestrated campaign to create alarm about “Settler Violence” magnifies a very marginal phenomena as part of a well thought out long game. Mike and Gadi explain how it works, and what its purpose is.

We also have a guest on this show: Jennifer Brick Murtazashvili. She’s an academic, but she won’t bow down to the lies about the war.

Read her op-ed in the Washington Post here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/03/27/israel-iran-war-propaganda-disinformation/

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What’s at stake is the American-led international order. If the regime in Iran remains standing, it will have shown that the US can no longer guarantee that order. The good news, Mike and Gadi think, is that Trump fully understands this. This is not to say, however, that all the challenges can easily be overcome.

Plus, Israel’s deep-state is reaching new level of legal surrealism.

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Will Trump go all the way with Iran? And if not, what are his options? There are many tools, apart from direct military assault, that the US can us to continue to weaken Iran, and prevent China from regaining its Middle East assets.

Also in this episode: Israel’s coming ground incursion into Lebanon, and an update on Sde Teiman: the indictments against the Force 100 soldiers, alleging abuse of a Palestinian prisoner, have been withdrawn. Gadi explains what this means.

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What is the Iranian game plan, and is it working? What does the choice of Mojtaba Khamenei to be the heir to his father’s role as Supreme Leader say about the regime and its ability to sustain itself? Gadi and Mike discuss.

Plus, the reignited war with Hezbollah offers a chance, Gadi says, to rid ourselves of the idea that all of Israel’s military success can be reversed. It's time to make South Lebanon into North Israel.

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Are the American and Israeli war aims the same? Regime change may turn out to be an ambiguous definition. Mike and Gadi assess the different scenarios which may fall under that phrase, and consider which ones events – and Trump – may end up imposing.

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