Mike explains why what the press is telling us about Israel's preemptive strike does not add up. Apparently, something different is going on. 

Also on this episode: why getting your news from Israeli English language sources is a tricky business.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken has announced at the end of a meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday that Netanyahu has accepted the new US bridging proposal for a hostage deal, and now Hamas should too, the Secretary said. But Netanyahu's detractors in Israel, as well as Hamas, insist on blaming the Israeli Prime Minister for sabotaging the deal. In Israel that alleged sabotage is tied to the controversy over the Philadelphi Corridor, the border between Gaza and Egypt where the IDF has so far found about 200 smuggling tunnels. Gadi and Mike discuss the politics around the deal in Israel, the US, and among Hamas and its allies – all in the shadow of a looming regional war.

Israel's existence depends on breaking Iran's drive for regional hegemony. This may take more than a few years, and probably several wars. The early history of Israel offers some useful lessons. 

 Mike and Gadi weigh the alternative scenarios as tensions mount: on the one hand Iran and Hezbollah must respond, on the other hand they fear a massive and costly Israeli retaliation. For its part, the US hopes to provide Iran and Hezbollah a pretext for restraint, by brokering a ceasefire agreement on Gaza. All the pieces are set on the chessboard. What now? 

And here are the articles we referred to: Mike's The Anti-Israel Sanctions Machine:

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/biden-harris-anti-israel-sanctions-machine

And Gadi's For Israel’s Progressive Elites, the Real War is Against the Enemy Within

https://www.jns.org/for-israels-progressive-elites-the-real-war-is-against-the-enemy-within/

An Israel Update In-Depth Special with Prof. Dan Scheuftan: Gaza, says Schueftan, is the most heavily fortified place in the history of warfare. Because it is fortified not only in the physical sense with its huge underground system of tunnels, it is also fortified by "Human Rights" NGOs, by the New York Times, by international tribunals, and by the general moral failure of the West to protect its own values. It is for this reason that Israel must win this war and establish for the future, that Barbarism cannot succeed in defeating the West by using the West's institutions against it.

Israel reservists were detained for questioning after a Hamas terrorist arrived in an Israeli hospital with physical signs of abuse. But this was not a routine arrest. Army police behaved towards IDF reservists as if this were a raid on a drug cartel – which ignited a riot in which enraged Israelis staged a break-in into two army bases. Mike and Gadi believe this drama encapsulates a much larger conflict which is brewing within Israeli society.

Also, in this episode: what are the odds for the slaughter of 12 Druse children by a Hezbollah rocket spiraling into a full scale war? 

Senator Cotton attended Prime Minister Netanyahu's speech, and shared his impressions with us. Iran's proxies, Senator Cotton said, do not threaten only Israel, they "threaten the entire US led international order." We also spoke about Israel's war in Gaza, this strange moment in American politics, the Woke, and finally Jefferson and Madison.

Mike and Gadi have already written Netanyahu's speech in their imagination to their own satisfaction – we'll soon see how well they've guessed. But one thing is not in doubt: Iran will be a major theme. Judging by the prime minister's recent public statements, he is going to describe Israel as standing at the forefront of the West's war against "Iran's axis of evil." This seems like a pretty obvious thing to say in the US, but in the context of the current administration's regional policy – it is anything but. Mike and Gadi explain why.

Also: how will substituting Joe Biden for Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party's presidential candidate affect Israel?

Bonus: Joe Biden vs. Thomas Sowell https://x.com/GadiTaub1/status/1815265490010292440

The failed assassination attempt on the former president will have vast consequences for the Middle East, some of which will be felt immediately. Israel, Mike argues, will have a freer hand to fight Hamas. A Trump victory however, with J.D. Vance as VP, will have far vaster effects on the region. Mike and Gadi discuss. 

Meanwhile, the incitement against PM Netanyahu crosses the line into a virtual calls for his assassination. Yet Israel's law enforcement seems not to have learned from the American lesson. Plus: a rift between Netanyahu and Gallant re the Philadelphi Corridor looms behind the attempt to reach a hostage deal with Hamas. 

The question is not just about the day after. It is also about the day before the day after: what should count as victory? Some have declared the return of the hostages to be the only meaning of victory and are willing to push for a deal almost at any price. But that means that in the real world, Hamas would be able to declare victory. This will not fly with the Netanyahu coalition. But even within the coalition, and importantly, between the politicians and the IDF brass, there are very different ideas of what this war can and should achieve. Gadi and Mike don't necessarily agree on the issue.