Before I came upstairs to work, I called into the coffee shop downstairs, as is my want. Coffee Theory is run by a husband and wife family team and is a small business.  We were talking about the fact that Christopher Luxon will be in tomorrow, and I said “have you got a question?” And Penny said “When will things get better? I know they're supposed to be, but when will things get better? I just wish they'd get better faster”. And that's kind of what we were talking about in the wake of the polls showing the Coalition party support slipping. People do believe things are getting a bit better, but they want it to happen faster. 

Perhaps with the OCR falling by 50 points, as was widely expected by economists, things will start to look up. The floating rates dropped, some banks have dropped their loan term interest rates. And although the floating rate is more directly affected by the OCR, the long-term loan interest rates that are set by the banks are affected by other things like term deposits, and world events, and the like. Banks have been put on notice by Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr to sharpen their pencils, and they've been told in no uncertain terms to come up with better rates for their customers. 

“The banks need to do better. They need to look at their own margins and chase and compete for customers much more vigorously. Their funding costs are being challenged because, you know the official cash rate is only one of the variables that go into what they have to pay when they're borrowing money to on-lend, but the margin is also sitting there at a very healthy level, so one would hope that when the competition, when people come back to the market, which they're doing in dribs and drabs now, competition is alive.” 

That was Adrian Orr on the Mike Hosking Breakfast. And it is true. Once mortgage rates have been set, or loans have been set, and the interest rate for borrowing that money is a little bit lower, then there isn't as much that you have to pay, so there's a little bit leftover in your back pocket once the bills have been paid. And thus, the noose around the necks of so many homeowners and business owners will start to loosen.  

Already, some sectors have recovered, come back from the very brink. Federated Farmers says farmer confidence has risen to its highest level in more than a decade, rebounding from record lows. It couldn't have got much worse for our farming communities. Remember that lovely man that rang in? I can't even remember how long ago... he was the first caller, and he spoke with such passion and with such heartfelt pain about the despair so many farmers felt as the result of being vilified for what they did. For being on the receiving end of legislation that made it nigh impossible to do their job, and yet without them, we would be completely and utterly and royally stuffed. But he was too fearful of saying what he did. Rather than saying proudly, I’m a farmer, he just didn't feel he could say that. He didn't have any confidence at all that he would get a fair or civil reception. And that prompted an avalanche of calls from those in the farming community, young and old, who felt very much the same.  

So when they say it was at record lows, I heard it. Now, they say farmer confidence has risen to its highest level in more than a decade. The latest Farm Confidence survey shows that falling interest rates, rising incomes, and more favourable farming rules have played a major role in the improvement. And they say that's a significant shift in the mood of rural New Zealand. Thank heavens for that and not before time. Hopefully farmers can take a big deep breath, you might actually be getting some sleep at night and you can look forward to the future with a little bit of confidence.  

What other sectors are seeing that – it just farming? Is tourism feeling the same kind of confidence, the same optimism? I imagine for retailers you might need to wait for the flow and effect of lower mortgage interest rates. But I'd be really interested to see where you are in terms of your confidence, in terms of your belief, that things are getting better and that things will be better in the short term, within the next 6 months, that things will be looking up. The farmers are feeling it, they're feeling confident. They’ve seen what lower interest rates and reasonable fair legislation can do. What about you? 

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