In an industry that’s full of followers, GHOST Lifestyle decided to pull inspiration from much different places and lead a new path to success. And that introductory statement probably didn’t sound familiar to almost anyone…well except for the co-founder (and CEO) of GHOST Dan Lourenco. And that's because it's a direct quote from my July 2016 article…where I proclaimed that GHOST Lifestyle (after launching just a few weeks prior) was the number one positioned brand to “win” in the sports nutrition market. But the inspiration for this content obviously is from the Keurig Dr Pepper (NASDAQ: KDP) and GHOST deal announcement from last week. Under the terms of the agreement, KDP will make an initial cash investment of approximately $990 million in exchange for a 60% ownership stake in GHOST. This initial stage of the transaction is expected to close in the next several months. Additionally, starting in mid-2025…KDP expects to invest up to $250 million to buyout existing distribution agreements ahead of beginning to sell and distribute GHOST Energy through the KDP DSD network. And then in 2028, KDP will purchase the outstanding 40% stake in GHOST at a pre-negotiated valuation scale that will reflect its 2027 financial performance. So, for my napkin math people…this initial stage of the transaction valued GHOST Lifestyle (mostly supplements) and GHOST Beverages (mostly energy drinks) collectively at $1.65 billion. EDITDA multiples were not made public at this time, but that valuation is said to represent (net of anticipated cash tax benefits) an approximately 3x net revenue multiple on a projected 2024 basis. And then finally…GHOST will operate as part of KDP’s U.S. Refreshment Beverages segment, though it will continue to be led by its co-founders, Dan Lourenco and Ryan Hughes. And in my latest first principles thinking content, I’ll explain why that important detail has short-term (and long-term) ramifications. But I'll reconcile some ominous comments I made in an August 2022 content piece about KDP energy drinks M&A predictions. And though I always believed that AB InBev would see GHOST as the cornerstone asset of its non-alcoholic “beyond beer” total beverage company transformation, it didn’t play out like that for a number of reasons (arguably coming from both sides). Moreover, I'll breakdown the KDP energy drink portfolio architecture that now includes Nutrabolt (C4 Energy), and what needs to happen strategically to limit cannibalization. KDP Chief Strategist Justin Whitmore seems to rightfully understands the high-level brand distinction…which is that consumers have bucketed C4 Energy into “performance” and GHOST into “cool lifestyle.” But maybe all that won’t be tasked to KDP (at least directly) anyways?
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