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Yesterday I had Wilson from HFI Research back on the podcast to give us an update on the energy sector. We talked about current events and sanctions, what US oil production will look like over the next 18 months, and what OPEC has planned for that same timeframe. If you’re trying to get a feel for what the rest of 2025 and 2026 hold for the energy sector, you will enjoy this one. You can find his Substack below, but you can also find him on Twitter.

Podcast Summary

* The knee jerk reaction to sanctions on Russian oil, and why they won’t stick.

* Chinese inventories increasing, if/when China will stop buying, and Chinese oil demand.

* Positioning in distillates (diesel) being at bullish extremes, and how long it might take for that positioning to unwind.

* His thoughts on the refining sector, and why it will take some time to see a more favorable environment for refiners.

* Associated gas production in the US outpacing crude oil production due to deteriorating well results.

* Producers in the Permian saying that their production is going to plateau. Chevron as an example recently revised guidance for higher gas and NGL production and lower crude production.

* Why he’s expecting flat US crude oil production into year end.

* What US production might look like if oil prices go higher into 2026.

* The case for natural gas, and why it’s based on a structural demand increase for LNG.

* Why the Haynesville is the only region of the US capable of providing excess gas.

* Why Canada is in a different situation when it comes to natural gas, and why AECO (Canadian natural gas) will never trade at premium to Henry Hub (US natural gas).

* OPEC, and what they have in store for the rest of 2025 and into 2026, and why he sees WTI heading back down into the 60s later this year.

* The signposts he’s looking for as far as Saudi production, OPEC, and US production to get very bullish on oil.

* Why things in energy markets get obvious before the price move happens.

* Offshore drillers, and the structural supply deficit that is going to benefit from increased offshore capex in coming years.

* Oil sands producers in Canada, and why producers with long reserve life assets are attractive.

* The political environment in Canada, the offtake capacity being a bottleneck longer term, and why they will continue to consolidate north of the border.

* The 2018 blowout in WCS-WTI differentials (Canadian oil prices vs. US).

* Venezuela, the waivers for Chevron, Mexico, and other producers that might be off the radar.

* The lack of exploration spending, and what it means for oil and different subsectors from now until 2030.

* Book Recommendation: Apple in China by Patrick McGee & Elon Musk by Walter Isaacson.

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Yesterday I had Charles Spadille on the podcast for a fascinating conversation on the state of the US. He has a background as a federal immigration enforcement officer, so we got into immigration and the impact it has had on the US over the last several decades. We also got into the generational divide, the dynamics between men and women, and the coming “Fix It” moment. Anyone who watches Peter R. Quiñones’ Thought Crime Syndicate episodes should be familiar with Charles, but you can find him on Twitter and Telegram (@whiskeyandashes).

No man is exempt his zeitgeist. We all grew up in the world we grew up in, for better or for worse or for good or for ill.

- Charles Spadille

Podcast Summary

* The Dignity Act, and why it basically looks like an Amnesty bill.

* The demographic changes that have happened across the country over the last several decades.

* The number of illegals in the US and chain migration.

* The generational divide, why younger generations are frustrated, and why the grass is always greener.

* The dynamics between men and women, how making women equal will fix it, and the difference between work and adult daycare jobs.

* The changing priorities of younger generations.

* The fix it moment, and why it is inevitable.

* Why the fix it moment won’t fix a democratic republic and his thoughts on monarchy.

* Book Recommendations: How To Win Friends And Influence People by Dale Carnegie, No More Mr. Nice Guy by Robert Glover & Man’s Search For Meaning by Viktor Frankl.

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This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

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I have been getting some questions and had a couple of conversations over the weekend on Sable Offshore’s $SOC court hearing on Friday. I briefly touched on the other cases (the CCC and the Permit Transfer), but laid out the importance of the Consent Decree and CEQA in the EDC/CBD case. I also shared some thoughts on why Geck might be trying to thread the needle with the injunction AND the caveat that the OSFM can sign off and Sable can produce after 10 days.

My rough estimate for full operations is mid-August, give or take a couple weeks, but the other side is all but guaranteed to play whatever cards they have left. I wrapped up talking about why the next two weeks could give shorts time to exit, and quick thoughts on the options chain, and why some investors are still underestimating fair value. The short term will almost certainly continue to be volatile, but we have some clarity on what the next 4-6 weeks holds as far as jumping through regulatory and legal hoops for Sable.

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On Tuesday I had Vince Lanci back on the podcast to cover about recent events, precious metals, energy, and geopolitics. We talked about the return of mercantilism, mineral wars, other big picture topics, and how they feed into financial markets and commodities. You should all follow his Substack below for his updates on precious metals, but you can also find him on Twitter.

Podcast Summary

* The trend of deglobalization, and why America needs to become more self-sufficient in manufacturing.

* Why platinum has been on the move recently, and why it will take some time to digest the rally over the last couple months.

* Chinese demand for platinum, the ties to palladium, and the fundamental changes in the market for platinum.

* A couple bold proclamations about a big move coming in silver.

* Why gold will drag other commodities higher in coming years.

* Big banks favoring gold and copper over silver.

* The geopolitical crosscurrents in oil, and the recent media frenzy on the Strait of Hormuz.

* Why they wouldn’t close the Strait of Hormuz unless Israel targeted Kharg Island.

* The ties between bitcoin and the Treasury market, and the Machiavellian system being built to sell treasuries.

* Book Recommendation: Street Smarts by Linda Raschke.

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Over the weekend I had several interesting conversations with investors about Sable’s hearing on Friday this week, so I wanted to share some of those thoughts briefly. I also talked about precious metals, including platinum. Offshore oil services and coal stocks have also been moving lately, so I weighed in on those as well. Both sectors are still very cheap today.

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This is Part 2 of my discussion on Monday with Clay Martin and E.M. Burlingame. This one covers some of the differences between men and women, how to fix the so-called gender divide, and some of the changes that might be on the horizon in coming years. We also got into the future for the US, why the best years could be ahead of us, and how a tax revolt could be a (more) peaceful revolution. If you haven’t had the chance to watch Part 1, I would go watch that first.

Podcast Summary

* The differences between men and women, and how society has changed the roles of each over the last 200 years.

* The health impacts of birth control on both men and women.

* Why the birth control pill should be illegal, and why it would fix several problems quickly.

* The massive gap between what is right and what is legal.

* How the agenda from the media impacts men and women.

* Why the relationship between men and women could be fixed quickly after some changes.

* Why the best years for the US could be ahead of us, after a messy decade to come.

* How a tax revolt could play out, and why it could be the most peaceful path from here.

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On Monday, I recorded my first in-person podcast with Clay Martin and E.M. Burlingame. E.M. was kind enough to host, and it was a long and fascinating conversation. Clay Martin is a former Recon Marine and Green Beret, and he has also become a prolific author over the last several years. You can find his books on Amazon, and he’s also a very entertaining follow on Twitter. We decided to break the podcast into two parts, so Part 2 will be up tomorrow morning. In Part 1, we covered a bunch of topics, from the recent Epstein circus to all of the other rabbit holes we have been down over the last several years. In Part 2, we get around to solving the rest of the world’s problems.

Podcast Summary

* The Epstein files circus, and blackmail being one time use.

* The health rabbit hole, covering the jab, to fluoride in the water, genetically modified food, seed oils, and everything in between.

* The dying mainstream media, the propaganda of the regime, and how Substack and social media will be the new battleground for the information war.

* Artificial intelligence (language learning models), some of the flaws that are built into the system.

* The state of the economy and financial markets, and how demographics and economics drive things.

* The knowledge transfer from the Boomer generation.

* Student loans as the largest asset of the government and not being able to default on student debt.

* Potential changes in government, and if (when) the US will get a Caesar figure.

* The state of military technology and how things develop on that front.

* Building businesses outside of the financial market liquidity bubble, and what probably happens to the banking system and financial markets over the next decade.

* The demographic state of the US, immigration, and how NGOs and other groups fuel the tension on social media.

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This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

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On Friday I had John Polomny back on the podcast, and this time we got into some of the individual names he likes in several different sectors. We talked about oil, uranium, and other commodities, but we also got into several other things that fly under the radar in other markets around the world. At the end of the podcast, I was able to get John going on the state of the world as far as geopolitics and current events. It was fun to go back and forth with him, because the political section of his weekly updates are my favorite part. You can find John on Substack below, and on Twitter.

Podcast Summary

* The lousy sentiment in oil, and where he is positioned for what he sees coming over the next several years.

* We talked a bit about some of the Canadian energy names and their long lived assets, and why he thinks the Canadian energy sector will continue to consolidate.

* Opportunities in offshore oil services outside of the main offshore drillers.

* Going past peak ESG, the bottlenecks in uranium, a couple different ideas he’s looking at in that sector, and why that sector is ripe for consolidation as well.

* The role of gold in the financial end game and a couple mining companies he likes.

* Why he thinks it’s an interesting time to start looking at some of the juniors, as well as some opportunities in the royalty sector.

* Why silver, platinum, and palladium are going to play catch up to gold.

* The financialized economy, the underinvestment in the commodities sector, and his view on gold to oil.

* His thoughts on coal, copper, and tin.

* Why he’s starting to look into agricultural and fertilizer stocks.

* Other places he sees value, like South America, European banks and other obscure ideas in Europe, and under the radar opportunities in China and Hong Kong.

* We also went back and forth at the end on geopolitics, US politics, and the state of the world, and why he expects more chaos and volatility around the world over the next several years.

* Note: we recorded on Friday, before the US hit three Iranian nuclear sites yesterday.

* Book Recommendation: Shareholder Yield by Meb Faber.

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Yesterday I had E.M. Burlingame back on the podcast, and we covered a bunch of different topics. We hit on everything from current events and geopolitics, estrogen based warfare, where he sees the US headed over the next several years and longer term, and the hyper-financialized economies of the West. I will be having him back on soon to discuss what he is working on in the health and medicine area, and why it is extremely important for people to understand some of the things that have happened with food and medicine over the last 80 years. You can find him on Twitter (after a return from a hiatus), or on his Substack below.

Podcast Summary

* Current events across the world, including what is going on in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and here in the US.

* Why he sees recent events as part of one big color revolution, and his view on estrogen based warfare.

* How the events in Israel and Iran might play out, and why Iran is stronger than many in the West think.

* Why the US empire is pulling back due to financial constraints.

* The LA riots, immigration, and the prospect for more civil unrest.

* The coming Constitutional crisis, the power of judges, and why the local level is extremely important moving forward.

* What he sees as the 2026 midterm elections approach.

* How the coming generational change might impact the path of the US.

* How the events in 2020 and lockdowns were a dividing line for recent events.

* Why he thinks America’s best years are still ahead if we can get through the bumpy period he sees coming over the next decade.

* The potential for the US to end up in a more hierarchical form of government like a Constitutional monarchy.

* His view on Europe and the path forward there.

* How technology and warfare has changed, but some important aspects have stayed the same.

* What he sees coming for the hyper-financialization for economies across the West.

* Why the West has a collateral problem, and how the US could create a sovereign wealth fund

* Book Recommendation: The Secret History of Mongol Queens by Jack Weatherford.

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Yesterday I had Trader Ferg on the podcast again to talk about his big picture view of financial markets. We got into his favorite commodities, his high level thoughts on which subsectors are the most attractive, and his view of the big picture from 30,000 feet. It was a great conversation, and if you aren’t already familiar with his work on Substack, you should check it out below.

Podcast Summary

* Why he has the most conviction on oil long-term, some of the information sources he follows, and what subsectors he favors.

* His view on the important question for energy investors, which is “Can the Permian Basin ramp production again, and if it can, how much production can they bring online?”

* Platinum group metals, including rhodium, and Anglo selling the bottom again by spinning out Valterra.

* Gold to oil, and why this time might be different if gold is used to recapitalize the system.

* What he sees in the coal sector, the royalty regime in Australia, and why he’s partial to met coal names in the US.

* Uranium and the potential for a short squeeze.

* We went into a couple other metals, and he laid out why he is very bullish on tin and not all that excited about copper.

* Shipping and shipyards, and why you have to be careful in shipyards with China’s dominant position in shipbuilding.

* Debt, deficits, TLT, and why all roads lead to inflation.

* Why he isn’t as bullish on natural gas as other commodities.

* Battling the psychological ups and downs in markets and the difficulty of having a long-term view with the short-termism that dominates financial markets today.

* Book Recommendations: House of Huawei by Eva Dou & Meditations by Marcus Aurelius

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This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe